Derby Live longshots and Short Priced Throw Outs !

Question

List one of each and why. Thanks

Roused · Answer

List one of each and why. Thanks

Roused · Answer

Frosted/Firing Line.  Materiality/Mubtaahij

Roused · Answer

First two are my longshots and the other two are my throw outs. Still leaning Dortmund.

vetdrm · Answer

Interesting views RouseLets see, I know where your coming from on the 2 throw outs.One has never raced as a 2 year old thus joining the category of those never winning a K.D.The other joins the never ending list of horses from Dubai who dont come close to winning a title at Churchill.I cant fault you on either.Then you have your two keepers. Longs shots they may be,but everyone is talking about Frosted and rightly so.Kiaran Mclaughlin/Joel Rosario  colt has awesome stamina and sired by Deputy Minister, who also gave us Go for Wand,Touch Gold,and Awesome Again. Once they corrected that pallet/breathing thing,Ive been impressed.Firing Line I think is the more interesting of the two.Go back and watch the Robert Lewis back in  Feb.He not only lost to Dortmund by a head on that day but also back in January.After his Sunland Derby win against weaker competition on March 22nd,he has been out of sight-out of mind.I think this is a very dangerous horse and youd be a fool to leave him out of your superfecta wagering.Gary Stevens is also the right guy to possibly spring thee upset.

angrybarber · Answer

Is a G1 winner really a longshot? I mean come on.
Far Right, Smith stays on when im sure he had other options. Horse closes like a train and is very agile and can maneuver thru traffic. Which obviously is an asset in a 20 horse field. However I don't see any sort of pace collapse i think the horses with early speed are to legit to just stop but if they go a little to fast Far Right will be coming late

Roused · Answer

Great analysis Vetdrm. Exactly my thoughts as well and Angry, both should be upwards of 10/1 or better.

vetdrm · Answer

Angry,I think what Rouse means is longs shots only as they pertain to this very tough field.

Heck,International Star is the only Kentucky Derby prospect who has won three qualifying races in 2015.

He swept the Gr 3 Lacomte, Gr2 Risen Star and Gr 2 Louisiana Derby and is projected no better then 6th on many derby lists including Watchmaker's Even he could be 10-1

Heres the Robert B Lewis stakes from back in Feb.

Firing line did not get near the same trip as Dortmund,but only lost by a head.

Check it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S_1YfYL3LM

angrybarber · Answer

Far Right will be closer to 30-1, i like International Star i just don't think he's top tier but he'll probably be in the 20-1 range, Watchmaker is a complete tool I can't even stand to gear him talk about races.
Beware of horses that prep in the Sunland Derby, that's all i have to say about Firing Line. Mine that Bird was a fluke and he's the only reason that race is even on the points list and he didn't even win that stupid race he finished 4th

Roused · Answer

International Star has a nose for the wire and so does Dortmund. They seem like they know they are in avrace.

Roused · Answer

Sorry for the typos above. So you will be the "wise guy" horse ?

nature1970 · Answer

I really Dortmund its rerally against gary on firing line against the rail. but for long shots
Irish bred mutabari could go off as a 25-1 if it fires to the front see it close to american phorah and can go the distance. its healthy been working well it draws say 5 or 6 post position and dortmund american pharoh 18,19,20 getting through the traffic and mutabari in the front from the bell think this horse has it him for a wire to wire trip. throw out carpe diem and any other todd trained horse. Pletcher horses seem cursed at the derby. only win i know of super savor and boreal bailed for rachel in the preakness....1 for 50 in the past ten years shows a real drought here.

46989 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Spot on

Upside · Answer

Pedigree wise ... stay away from win tickets on International Star and Carpe Diem ... They can finish 2nd , 3rd, or 4th ...just not win .. I&#x27;d share , why , but I don&#x27;t need the ridicule ...

jbeamz · Answer

waiting for post pos, can keen ice stay close enough and close for a piece?, ......with 20, getting to top of stretch is half the battle, nervous trainers waiting for p.p.&#x27;s.......

jbeamz · Answer

omg roused do you realize you wrote dies dortmund?.....is that a precursor to........... "fades in the stretch".............lol

Roused · Answer

Sorry to the typo. Love Dortmund

djbrow · Answer

I fixed it just so there is no crazy discussion if the unthinkable happens.

Depending on the draw....

My wagering strategy will be using my longshots in multi-race wagers and AP in race wagering.

I will not be using Dortmund in my exotics, nor International Star. Also ruling out Danzig Moon because of Julien who cannot drive in the Derby. Staying away from Materiality.

Like Sanford (hot jockey angle) and War Story (had a dream he won) for bombs.

angrybarber · Answer

Stanford pace casualty i can almost guarantee that

Roused · Answer

Mat buried Stanford and his last win was against Jim who flopped last out. Can use. Why no love for Dortmund ?

djbrow · Answer

I&#x27;m not really one to look at the pace theory. It doesn&#x27;t usually play out (2013, said no pace, 2012, many said Bode would suffer in meltdown, etc. &#xD;&#xA;I just think FG is a very hot jockey right now, ala Rosario in 2013.&#xD;&#xA;I like Dortmund&#x27;s draw but worry about his turn of foot.

angrybarber · Answer

Pace isn&#x27;t a theory, it shapes the entire race. Bode did suffer, Trinniberg made him go and kept on him which cost Bode the race. It wasn&#x27;t a duel but it still cost him

djbrow · Answer

I agree that pace isn&#x27;t a theory at all. But what is supposed to transpire in a race as far as pace never seems to happen the way people think. The change in the points system reduces the pure sprinters and thus, it should lead to less of an early pace in theory. One thing I never understood about that race was after the 1st quarter when Trinniberg tucked in, why Smith didn&#x27;t give Bode a breather, instead going a 23 and change second part.

Derby Live longshots and Short Priced Throw Outs !

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