Done Talking - Ainslie Plus Factor #9

#9 - Lost ground in the middle stages but gained in the stretch

"A horse may be shuffled back by heavy traffic after a good start.   If it at least regains the lost ground it demonstrates the willingness and condition that wins races.   In seeking this angle - known to old time punters as the "Up and Down System", little attention need to be paid to running position.  Lengths behind the leader are more important, although it is nice to note that the horse managed to pass others while closing in on the leader."

Done Talking lost 4.5 lengths between the 1st and 2nd call of the Illinois Derby and came back and won the race.    From 8.5 lengths behind to 13 lengths behind.  

Something happened entering the far turn.   He either got cut off, got shuffled, got caught in a blindswitch (another Ainslie term - means surrounded by horses with no where to go),  brushed with the horse inside of him.   Not sure what it was but he had started a strong move and it was stopped abruptly.     And the horse came back from that.

Only problem with that though is he got a career high Brisnet fig for that race and the jockey was absolutely whipping the piss out of him coming down the stretch.    Might bounce.  He was all out.   

His Remsen Stakes was also a better than it looks race because the pace of that race according to Brisnet Race Shapes was -14 to the half and -16 the the 6 furlongs.   That's 7 fifths and 8 fifths slow and he almost won that one also.   He displayed another Ainslie Plus Factor in that one.

#8 - Lost Last Race But Gained In The Stretch

"If the result chart or past performance line says "rallied" , "just missed", or "finished fast" and the horse picked up at least 2 lengths in the stretch, it may do better today.   Unless of course the effort dulled it's form (which the player should have noticed when analyzing the form factor)."

Done Talking picked up 4 lengths in the stretch in the Remsen against a slow pace and from dead last place and the comment says "rallied" but it's not his last race anymore.   Just another sign that was a good race though by him.    He had no chance to bounce after that one because he went on a 3 month layoff after that race.

Both of those races were 9 furlongs , the Derby is 10 furlongs.

So two of his last three races were very impressive and the one in between can be thrown out because that was his first off a layoff.  

MIght be a better horse than he's getting credit for but I think people have been disrespecting the running time of The Illinois Derby or something.   

TIME IS ONLY IMPORTANT IN PRISON

Check Done Talking out on video if you have access.      

Actually I have links to the videos for you.   

2012 Illinois Derby Grade 3 at Hawthorne (3 yr olds)  He's #13

2011 Remsen Stakes Grade 2 at Aqueduct (2 yr olds)   He's #3

He's also got a jockey Russell Sheldon who's inexperienced in the Derby and at Churchill which is obviously a negative.   But the jockey isn't everything.   And those jockeys I've been trashing on here (Sheldon, Gutierrez, O'Donoghue) do have some skills obviously.   They aren't total garbage.     

 He'll have 28 days (4 weeks) off when he runs in the Derby.

Probably the minimum he needs to recover from his Illinois Derby effort.    Doesn't look like he's had any workouts since that race.   I assume he'll have one next week.   Gotta see how he does in that.   

It's Chapter 16 (58 Plus Factors) of his book, "Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing"     Dated 1986  

Go to your local library, I'm sure it's not checked out given today's obsession with Beyer Speed Figures.   

Stuttering Andy Beyer and his bullshit figures   

Or you can order it on Amazon very cheaply.     I looked around on the internet and couldn't find a list of them.       

Ainslie is dead by the way.   RIP      Think he was 92

Grey,

You are way too harsh and misleading when it comes to Beyer.  His figures are a tool he uses amongst many others to handicap a race.  They are not the end all be all.  He will be the first to admit it.

HB

Done Deal !!!!!!!!!!!!....already have him in my exotics.

Good Luck

Just want to make something clear about this thread.   

I was just pointing out some positive things I saw in his past performances.    I wasn't picking him to win or not to win.   I wasn't picking him to finish in the money/super  or not to finish in the money/super.   That's up to you.

It's just some analysis of one horses' races.   The problem with horse racing is that you have to do this sort of thing for every horse in the race and then compare what you found and then make your selections and wagers.   It's a lot of work.   

These Ainslie Plus Factors, there is 58 of them, and you're supposed to go thru every horse in the race and if one of the horses has 4 more plus factors than the rest of them, he is a good bet.    I didn't do that here.    

The Illinois Derby got a 116 Brisnet Race Rating.   That's not very high for this field.   Alot of these horses have been running in 119's and the Florida Derby was a 120.

The Remsen Stakes (2 yr olds) last year at Aqueduct got a 118 Race Rating.  So that's pretty good and Done Talking was a length from winning that.

The thing about 3 yr olds especially lightly raced ones like some of these horses are is that they can improve at any time on what they have shown so far in their past performances. 

And the distance of this race and the size of the field makes pretenders out of contenders in a hurry.

The horse he beat, Morgan's Leona, came back to do absolutely nothing the next start.

He's a pass for me.