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Easter Santa Anita 4/16 picks & analysis

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Happy Easter everyone, 

Below is my analysis of the Santa Anita card today ending with how I'd use a bankroll on the card. 

GL!

race 1:
HANDFULL taking pretty significant drop. had absolutely nothing left last couple furlongs. Bejarano stays on a 15 time winner privately purchased by Baltas last spring. Expect a better account of herself today, but as an 8yo coming dead last by 23 lengths, is a better effort necessarily a winning one at a short price? CONQUEST SO TRUE has been claimed 3 out of last 4 races, so something is to like that these trainers are seeing. Knapp putting back on turf and back to mile where three back outran her odds at 17/1 for third. Had no shot in last bottled up inside, but wouldnt have mattered. keeping her at the 25k level. JOSEPHINE'S MOMENT been on the bench for a few months after the claim. Now tries mile on turf and gets Prat aboard. expect to be forwardly placed but doesnt need the lead. Why the layoff off a claim if she looked so good winnng by 6? LOB CITY never won on turf, and Baze chooses to get back on the 5. WARREN'S JEN FIZZ hasnt won since Apr 2015. only one start in 2017 and didnt quite have her best legs under her. also had nowhere to go and was somewhat bottled up inside before finishing decent. Baze back on. STOLE MY 'ART has shown a great deal of improvement since switching to turf in 2017. will be the longest shot on the board in a race where nobody really looks good.
Final Thoughts:
If you toss HANDFULL'S last race, she looks much the best horse in this field. I can't take that horse at probably close to even money, as there are just too many negatives. I'm gonna go with the 2, CONQUEST SO TRUE. I think this horse is in solid form, and I think she is the one that will have a good turn of foot and kick down the lane. she should stalk the 1 and get a nice trip here.

sequences: I could easily go all button here. not big fan of the race. going with the horse hot in the claiming box. 
2. all.

race 2:
The class-dropping favorite GOT EVEN should be a tough one in here as he has been facing much better. Concerned where the early pace is gonna come from which is necessary to beat this one. Horse is sort of headed in the wrong direction though, and as an 8yo I want to try and beat. The 1, MADIBA was very wide throughout in his last against CITY STEEL, who tucked inside and got a much better trip to get by Madiba at the wire. Out of those two, I definitely like Madiba, and the 3 nice works since last shows this one should fire big today with a better post. BRIMSTONED is the other contender, and his first off the bench was a fairly dull effort on the downhill turf and he was clearly unfocused down the stretch cocking his head and not wanting any part of digging in. The blinkers on should make a big improvement, and his last two on dirt were against some big time horses in Baffert's Jazzy Times and Miller's St. Joe Bay. Elliot is going to need to get this one involved early, and by the work patterns and placement it's clear that Tom Bell knew he needed that last one. Good turf/dirt numbers. Should be an overlay and the value bet. My top pick is the 1, MADIBA. The cutback on a half furlong should help his late kick and I think he can sit the most tactical spot with the best jockey. Close second pick is BRIMSTONED.
1-4-3-2
win: 1
Ex: 1-4
ex box: 1,4
tri: 1/2,3/4
sequences: 1. 1,4.

race 3:
Not sure why Prat doesnt stay aboard FREDDIES DREAM, but Pedroza is coming off a red hot Saturday and is riding well. Instead, he gets on Puype's horse SIX POINT RACK who seems like a field filler and not up to competing with the top two in here. MY ITALIAN BABBO should take plenty of support and has a right  to improve with second time blinkers. To me, I think there is enough early foot in here to not give anyone a loose lead. Babbo has only won against statebred maidens, and without a very dreamy trip, I just think FREDDIES DREAM is the faster horse. He's taking a pretty aggressive drop, but it's only back to the original purchase price when claimed 3 back. The two back on dirt was at 10 furlongs and was more distance than he wanted. this 8.5f distance should fit just right for his late kick to overwhelm this small field. I'll take the favorite at even money or better and single in sequences, cause I think he blows by them all down the stretch.
5-3-1
sequences: 5. 
win: 5
exacta: 5-1


 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
race 4:
Desormeaux did not bother running MADAME STRIPES down the stretch with any urging after steadying badly at the 1/4 pole. The shuffle totally took her out of the race, and when things opened up, Kent let her run a bit and strided out very nicely all things considered. Alot less traffic today in an 8 horse field and should sit a tactical trip and have a big run late.  JEREMY'S LEGACY was just third in a G3 in Jan, but against this field it just doesn't seem like she will end up being the best today. PACIFIC HEAT is the deserving favorite here, and should be a short price off the bench qualifying for this much lesser race for her caliber because of it being a Cal-bred condition. If she is ready to rock and gets easy fractions, she should be long gone. Fitness always a question in turf routes first off a year layoff. ALLOWANCES making first start stateside and hasnt raced since September. Probably best to try and find more info on the horse later in the day, as there is just too much unknown about how the horse looks and has been training leading up to this. Might want more distance so this one could be a prep. CEEME RUN WILD should be sitting right off Pacific Heat and get first run. Working smart since last race and is clearly knociking at the door while improving, looking for that first win vs winners. Horse is in great form and should be right there at the wire. AWARD IT had no intentions of anything but going to the back and making one big run late. Probably same style today and I dont see the pace to support, nor do I see her out-closing the 1. 
My top pick is the 1, MADAME STRIPES. This horse has shown the versatility to be where she needs to with Kent riding back. Gainesway stable private purchase looks to have some graded stakes potential this spring/summer, and a win today is the first step towards that. See where the money goes before doing win/place, because if Pacific Heat isn't a heavy favorite, Madame Stripes might not be more than 5/2-3/1ish.
1-5-7
sequences: 1. 1,5,7.
**win/place: 1**
ex: 1/,5,7
tri: 1/5,7/3,4,5,7,8

race 5: 
PAPA ROYALE is clearly going to be the horse to beat and deserving fav. Taking a pretty big drop to a near bottom level claimer after being very wide throughout and still managing to pass some horses in a losing effort to a much better Pete Miller horse. Blinkers go on and the extra furlong should be right up his alley. Today has to be the day for this one. JOHANN'S COMMAND has had more than his fair share of chances as an 0-14 maiden that just doesnt like to win. 9/14 in the money. First time blinkers off is an angle I love, but when you're 0for like this one, the winning equipment angle I adore looks more like a reach. the cut to 7f should definitely help, and this one to me is the best bet at upsetting Papa Royale. Cutting back in distance for a low level maiden like this usually fares better than going further. THE TOPESTER looks to be the speed here, and the one that will need to be run down. Fought gamely in last, and the 6f work last week should help getting that extra 1/2f. Doesn't seem to be much early foot here and that could prove very dangerous. PICTURE TUBE made a big sustained move from the back to finish a game second, and the cutback to 7f should help his closing kick. Last time at 7f was steaming late to miss by a nose. But will he get the pace to run into here is the question. 
There is clearly 4 contenders here, and you can make a case for each one. I'm gonna rely on the 1 being able to be tactical here, and apply enough pressure on the 2 that he won't be able to hold up at 7f. This will leave the Papa Royale to fend off. To me those are the top two contenders, and for the sake of probably 7/2ish compared to 3/2ish, the value bet is the 1 but could end up being wishful thinking. 
5-1-2-7
sequences: 5. 1,5. 1,2,5,7.
win/place: 1

race 6:
ZICONIC makes second start off layoff as a 4yo and is getting an extra furlong today. This horse's pedigree obviously screams for distance and will be coming from the back. Is he ready to be like his mom and dad yet? Looked like he needed that last one and still passed everyone but the easy winner on slow fractions. This one is gonna be very tough to hold off late. The fact that CONQUEROR is the ml favorite here and Prat takes ride shows this thing should be really tough today. Second off break should help fitness and nice works since last start. Why did they put up for a tag first out? Was all over the place around the dirt turn and didnt seem to like the surface change nor the traffic. Desormeaux didnt ask much after that down stretch and still held second. Don't think we've seen nearly the best out of this one and could have his way up front. LEGAL AUTHORITY clearnly needed that last one, and interesting to see whether he will be a clear speed presence or try to rate a bit more. LATITUDE sat a decent stalking trip and finished a nice third, but tough to see this one being the first one to the line today. KID CHARMING has the most eligibility to improve in his second career start. Given he's a late blooming 4yo, asking him to turn the tables on this whole field seems like a tough task, but not impossible. 
I think the fact that CONQUEROR is the ml choice coming from a claiming race on the downhill all the way to 9f, and the fact the rest of the field pretty much is out of the same race(one that Cerin won handily with Conquest Sabre Cat), there is a good chance he could have this field measured here today. Prat on board is the icing, but curious why Kent wouldnt stay. Prat and Cerin dont go together much. Also, you should get all of that 5/2ml with the betting public having many options here. Out of the last common race, my pick from there would have to be ZICONIC. Maybe people are starting to give up on this one, but I see a big jump forward today, and if there's a going away winner, Ziconic is it. 
3-6-4
sequences: 3,6. 3,4,6. 3,4,6,7,8.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
race 7: 
SHE'SLUCKYTHATWAY breaks from rail like last race where she broke slow. Taking a class drop and is a deserving favorite in here as nobody else is close figure wise. Extra distance should help her cause, and looks to be possible lone speed. PRINCESS NILE taking plunge from open maidens at a mile, but just hasnt shown any ability to run a winning race. The horses that have beaten her are top notch and worlds better than what others have faced. This should surely be the second choice, but I'm just not sold she can turn it around. RUN SCOUT RUN could like more distance, but I havent seen enough to back on top. She was parked wide and had no shot so Pereira saved some horse. A better account is likely, but under could be her best today. DIZZY DIVA flat out lost touch with the field in last, and I'm surprised to not see any kind of equipment addition. I love the way she blew by the rest of the field and also saved some horse after seeing third was gonna be the best result. Talamo stays and this one could be a potential upset if nobody wants the distance, as well as a smart ladder bet across the board. FORTHE LOVOF PATTY lost to a horse named Irish Dame on St. Patty's day, who came back to win a 25k claimer right back. Only one experienced at the distance, and should be forwardly placed in a race without much early foot. 
Something tells me this favorite might end up burning a ton of money today. I think there is alot to be reserved about. It is simply a struggle to see where the pace presence is gonna come from to challenge the 1. Maybe if the 4 goes early with a better post as in her two and three back effort, it could wear down the 1. My best shot to beat the odds on would be the 5, DIZZY DIVA. If this horse can stay involved early, she's shown a great late stride that could prove to be dangerous in this very weak field of maidens. 
1-5-6-3
sequences: 1,5. 
win/place: 5
ex: 1/5. 1,5 box. 
tri: 1/3,4,6/5

race 8: 
This is a very salty bunch here for a 5 horse field in the main event. BOBBY ABU DHABI got an easy trip after the pace melted down up top and just drew by on the outside. Now he breaks from the rail which should be more advantageous than his last post and the 6f is probably his ideal distance. Seems like a shaky favorite though. Blinkers off definitely helped this horse step up. ARISTOCRATIS ships back home after clearly not liking Oaklawn. Not proven on fast surface, but somemthing tells me this one will be the value bet and run big. 475k purchase with big time pedigree. Will be on the front end and need to be caught. TAXMAN'S QUEST is another speed who gets back on preferred surface and distance for Papa Mandella. Alot of people have good things to say about this one, and we might not have scratched the surface yet. Could be much the best. REBEL WAR is the longshot in here and would definitely appreciate a total pace meltdown. Under seems best though. BIG LEAGUE is the second Miller entry making his first start as a 3yo after losing to Klimt and california diamond in 2016. Probably the one to bet out of the two entries, and I maybe this is my imagination but Arroyo getting off this feels like a deterrence considering Arroyo is one of Miller's go-to riders. I see him sitting off the inside speeds and making a big move around the turn if good enough. Let's remember this horse was 4/5 against California Diamond in last. That long stretch at Los Al and 6.5f got him tired so this 6f should suit better.
My top play here is BIG LEAGUE. Miller means business here with 40% of the field and his inside entry should help keep things honest. Gonna need to break well and not lose ground being too wide. My close second choice is TAXMAN'S QUEST. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Mandella's barn as it would make this decision a lot easier. Information is more important than paper handicapping or replays in a race like this in my opinion, because of the fact these are improving 3yo's that haven't reached their potential yet.
5-3
sequences: 3,5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
race 9:
AMERICAN LEAGUE making second consecutive drop which is a bad sign, but not only does this horse look to be the class but also could be lone speed. Looks almost too obvious. Had things his way somewhat up front and still got passed without much of a stretch punch. Prat hops on today and let's see if he goes to the lead. RPRETTYBOYFLOYD should sit a stalking trip, and was beat in last at 9f by a couple taking big drops in sharp form. The cutback should help his late kick, and this one could be the one to beat. Got intimidated and then tired/gave up after getting gobbled between the two horses that finished best. FORMULATE broke poorly to last and ran home hard to win on the class drop. Now right back up to the 35k nonwinner3 level but doesn't look like the race is gonna set up like last time. Did do it very effortlessly though, but I've been fooled too many times with these easy winners looping around a melted pace. AIR POCKET could be the price play here and go back to what worked which is straight to the lead. His form has just been horrible lately.
My top pick is RPRETTYBOYFLOYD here. Between the cutback and what is actually a much weaker field, I think he sits the nice stalking trip and has the most lick late with plenty to hold off the late runners. 
6-10-7-1
sequences: 6. all? 
**win: 6**

My top play today is MADAME STRIPES in the 4th. Second best bet is RPRETTYBOYFLOYD in the finale. Based on a $100 bankroll, I would use it this way:
Race 4: $40 win 1
Race 5: $5 win/place 1
Race 7: $5 win/place, $10 show 5
Race 9: $30 win 6

Sequences:
Pick 5:  all/1,3,4/5/1/1,2,5,7   $36 
Late Pick 4: 3,6/1,3,4,5,6/3,5/6   $10
                   3,4,6,7,8/1,5/3,5/1,6,7,10   $40
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 44
Posted: #5
Ugh very sloppy work in hind sight on a couple races. I managed to catch myself with My Italian Babbo who was clearly in much better form than that weak field in race 3. My Rprettyboyfloyd pick was another with a horse that wasn't even fit enough to work since last start as was Freddie's Dream. A little to hasty handicapping on a holiday, but particularly frustrating because the card in my opinion was fairly easy and should have been better capitalized on. Just wanted to point out a couple mistakes that need to be avoided in the future. 

After realizing my mistake with race 9, I actually put in an additional wager of 1,9 ex box for it to come 8-9-1 with the 9 a $48 horse and giant overlay 


Will be back Wednesday for Keeneland picks.
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 44
Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Knicks950:

  

After realizing my mistake with race 9, I actually put in an additional wager of 1,9 ex box for it to come 8-9-1 with the 9 a $48 horse and giant overlay 


*the 8 being overlay, not 9.
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