Posted:
#1
Happy Easter everyone,
Below is my analysis of the Santa Anita card today ending with how I'd use a bankroll on the card.
GL!
race 1:
HANDFULL taking pretty significant drop. had absolutely nothing left last couple furlongs. Bejarano stays on a 15 time winner privately purchased by Baltas last spring. Expect a better account of herself today, but as an 8yo coming dead last by 23 lengths, is a better effort necessarily a winning one at a short price? CONQUEST SO TRUE has been claimed 3 out of last 4 races, so something is to like that these trainers are seeing. Knapp putting back on turf and back to mile where three back outran her odds at 17/1 for third. Had no shot in last bottled up inside, but wouldnt have mattered. keeping her at the 25k level. JOSEPHINE'S MOMENT been on the bench for a few months after the claim. Now tries mile on turf and gets Prat aboard. expect to be forwardly placed but doesnt need the lead. Why the layoff off a claim if she looked so good winnng by 6? LOB CITY never won on turf, and Baze chooses to get back on the 5. WARREN'S JEN FIZZ hasnt won since Apr 2015. only one start in 2017 and didnt quite have her best legs under her. also had nowhere to go and was somewhat bottled up inside before finishing decent. Baze back on. STOLE MY 'ART has shown a great deal of improvement since switching to turf in 2017. will be the longest shot on the board in a race where nobody really looks good.
Final Thoughts:
If you toss HANDFULL'S last race, she looks much the best horse in this field. I can't take that horse at probably close to even money, as there are just too many negatives. I'm gonna go with the 2, CONQUEST SO TRUE. I think this horse is in solid form, and I think she is the one that will have a good turn of foot and kick down the lane. she should stalk the 1 and get a nice trip here.
sequences: I could easily go all button here. not big fan of the race. going with the horse hot in the claiming box.
2. all.
race 2:
The class-dropping favorite GOT EVEN should be a tough one in here as he has been facing much better. Concerned where the early pace is gonna come from which is necessary to beat this one. Horse is sort of headed in the wrong direction though, and as an 8yo I want to try and beat. The 1, MADIBA was very wide throughout in his last against CITY STEEL, who tucked inside and got a much better trip to get by Madiba at the wire. Out of those two, I definitely like Madiba, and the 3 nice works since last shows this one should fire big today with a better post. BRIMSTONED is the other contender, and his first off the bench was a fairly dull effort on the downhill turf and he was clearly unfocused down the stretch cocking his head and not wanting any part of digging in. The blinkers on should make a big improvement, and his last two on dirt were against some big time horses in Baffert's Jazzy Times and Miller's St. Joe Bay. Elliot is going to need to get this one involved early, and by the work patterns and placement it's clear that Tom Bell knew he needed that last one. Good turf/dirt numbers. Should be an overlay and the value bet. My top pick is the 1, MADIBA. The cutback on a half furlong should help his late kick and I think he can sit the most tactical spot with the best jockey. Close second pick is BRIMSTONED.
1-4-3-2
win: 1
Ex: 1-4
ex box: 1,4
tri: 1/2,3/4
sequences: 1. 1,4.
race 3:
Not sure why Prat doesnt stay aboard FREDDIES DREAM, but Pedroza is coming off a red hot Saturday and is riding well. Instead, he gets on Puype's horse SIX POINT RACK who seems like a field filler and not up to competing with the top two in here. MY ITALIAN BABBO should take plenty of support and has a right to improve with second time blinkers. To me, I think there is enough early foot in here to not give anyone a loose lead. Babbo has only won against statebred maidens, and without a very dreamy trip, I just think FREDDIES DREAM is the faster horse. He's taking a pretty aggressive drop, but it's only back to the original purchase price when claimed 3 back. The two back on dirt was at 10 furlongs and was more distance than he wanted. this 8.5f distance should fit just right for his late kick to overwhelm this small field. I'll take the favorite at even money or better and single in sequences, cause I think he blows by them all down the stretch.
5-3-1
sequences: 5.
win: 5
exacta: 5-1
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