Not my favorite Derby prep race, but one that nearly every year places a horse in the race that takes place on the first Saturday of May..... nonetheless, they are racing for points.
A sort of ho-hum field of 14 goes to the gate on the synth surface led by #11 Frank Conversation (2-1 ML) for Doug O'Neill and a colt I picked early as one to watch,#2 Kasseopia, whose future is likely on grass. Look for Hollendoefer's #4 Mr. Coker to make some noise.
A bit o a puzzler is #10 Diplodocus. Russell Baze takes the mount for a horse, who, as a two-year old, was full of promise. Look for clues as this one can take a decent piece a 10-1 ML.
Not a heckuva lot more to discuss, so let's get to it.
My pics:
#11 Frank Conversation.....From what I've read this week, the sharpies are playing against. I'm not afraid. Certainly not a safe chalk play, but. to me, he is clearly the class of the field off a $120K Ocala sale out of Quality Road. Not sure he's totally bred to take on 1-1/4 miles, but he sure is for this race at 1-1/8. He's got a win here in the Cal Derby where he was driving at the end off a perfect trip; O'Neill, Mario Gutierrez and owner Peter Redham---the I'll Have Another connection---and that's good enough for me.
#7 Marqula....Jeff Bonde is a very underrated trainer and jockey KyleFrey is grinder with a colt that finished second to Frank in the Cal Derby. He's been in contention in each of his races and I have no reason to believe he won't be today.
#4 Mr. Coker....graduation to the bigger-time today? Could be as he seems to be on the move. Hollendorfer is very good in this race and at GG, so bringing the animal up here from SA doesn't scare me, especially coming off his maiden win at that track. Out of turfer Candy Ridge, I see no problem handling the surface. Possible upset with the right break and trip....?
#2 Kasseopia.....Lots of potential here, including today. I think this guy's future is on the turf and I said early that I figured they'd give him at least one shot in a Derby prep. Can't think of a better spot as the field is a softy and the surface likely suiting his breeding. Another one that could upset today.
#10 Diplodocus...All-time win leader Baze is still nailing it....25% wins this year. Out of Sky Mesa and a Carson City mare, he looks more suited to a mile or less, but I have faith in the crafty jock to have him in position for a bit of a slice.
#11 Frank Conversation $20 to win
$12 exacta key: 11/2,4,7
$4 exacta straight: 11/10
$5 exacta wheel: 2,4,7/11
GL to all!
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