12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
race 7
75K Non-Graded Stakes 4YO and Up 5F (Turf)
3 WP
12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
people might wonder why i see a potential edge on "recency" when he ran poorly last out. recency to me is NOT just the last race or when the last race took place or how many drills a horse has. to me it's an overall assessment. recency to me is looking at the overall quality of the recent activity and results. given that this guy stacks up pretty well when the turf is firm whereas some of these have layoffs and/or topsy turvy results that are inconsistent.
that said it's always possible something went wrong last time and he doesn't fire in the lane today. that's why it's risk/reward.
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people might wonder why i see a potential edge on "recency" when he ran poorly last out. recency to me is NOT just the last race or when the last race took place or how many drills a horse has. to me it's an overall assessment. recency to me is looking at the overall quality of the recent activity and results. given that this guy stacks up pretty well when the turf is firm whereas some of these have layoffs and/or topsy turvy results that are inconsistent.
that said it's always possible something went wrong last time and he doesn't fire in the lane today. that's why it's risk/reward.
2 - could be the fav. on his best day he wins this. hasn't won in a year and beyond that hasn't shown that zip and pace he used to show. lots of layoffs. i'll take my chances fading.
4 - could be the fav as well. hyped pletcher horse did come on late in turf debut to just miss and fig was good but not great. doesn't consistently fire all the way. probably have a good amount of ground to cover late here to win. i'll take my chances fading. he could win but looks like more hype than delivery to me.
5 - has wired smallish and/or much weaker crews but hasn't consistently done that at this distance/surface. off a long break into a tough spot i'll fade.
6 - dream trip last out for the win and could win again. seems like he runs better when there is moisture and give and this 7YO hasn't strung them together since last winter. wouldn't shock me though.
7 - wild card. plenty of reasons to think he has solid potential and I see that. even if he does run well i see him with a lot of ground to cover late and the steady drills don't show me anything to suggest he won't be far back early. i'll fade but who knows with this guy he could improve.
8 - "best horse" no doubt. now he's an 8YO and hasn't run in 19 months. skipper is 0/15 last 15 off a break of more than a year. i'll take my chances.
9 - strong recency on turf with figs that measure up ok but certainly not an edge there. should be coming late if he finds room wouldn't shock me.
10 - strip out the Calder figs which to me always seem to be misleading and it looks like he's too slow to beat these at this point in his career. outside post doesn't help his style either.
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2 - could be the fav. on his best day he wins this. hasn't won in a year and beyond that hasn't shown that zip and pace he used to show. lots of layoffs. i'll take my chances fading.
4 - could be the fav as well. hyped pletcher horse did come on late in turf debut to just miss and fig was good but not great. doesn't consistently fire all the way. probably have a good amount of ground to cover late here to win. i'll take my chances fading. he could win but looks like more hype than delivery to me.
5 - has wired smallish and/or much weaker crews but hasn't consistently done that at this distance/surface. off a long break into a tough spot i'll fade.
6 - dream trip last out for the win and could win again. seems like he runs better when there is moisture and give and this 7YO hasn't strung them together since last winter. wouldn't shock me though.
7 - wild card. plenty of reasons to think he has solid potential and I see that. even if he does run well i see him with a lot of ground to cover late and the steady drills don't show me anything to suggest he won't be far back early. i'll fade but who knows with this guy he could improve.
8 - "best horse" no doubt. now he's an 8YO and hasn't run in 19 months. skipper is 0/15 last 15 off a break of more than a year. i'll take my chances.
9 - strong recency on turf with figs that measure up ok but certainly not an edge there. should be coming late if he finds room wouldn't shock me.
10 - strip out the Calder figs which to me always seem to be misleading and it looks like he's too slow to beat these at this point in his career. outside post doesn't help his style either.
12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
gulfstream
6/1 winner
pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed - actually worked perfectly here in this one. man he won a LOT easier than i figured he could but hey maybe he improved again getting back on firm turf.
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 7
75K Non-Graded Stakes 4YO and Up 5F (Turf)
3 WP
12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
gulfstream
6/1 winner
pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed - actually worked perfectly here in this one. man he won a LOT easier than i figured he could but hey maybe he improved again getting back on firm turf.
Chi - ya i can't believe more people didn't up on that when he was 18/1 i was wondering what I missed ha. sometimes you get those inefficiencies and more so on turf which is wy i like turf handicapping/betting better.
grey - ya saw that. crooked fukks down there but it is what it is. too bad he didn't stay above 10/1 or so. they hammer this 2 he hasn't fired strongly in a while and you could see he simply couldn't keep pace. they hammer this 8 he's been gone for 19 months
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thanks guys
Chi - ya i can't believe more people didn't up on that when he was 18/1 i was wondering what I missed ha. sometimes you get those inefficiencies and more so on turf which is wy i like turf handicapping/betting better.
grey - ya saw that. crooked fukks down there but it is what it is. too bad he didn't stay above 10/1 or so. they hammer this 2 he hasn't fired strongly in a while and you could see he simply couldn't keep pace. they hammer this 8 he's been gone for 19 months
12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
Outstanding!
I used Bold Thunder as a "B" on my pick 6, but had way too many eggs in Fiddlers Patriot's basket. That was a nice ticket at 6-1.
Congrats!
HB
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Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 7
75K Non-Graded Stakes 4YO and Up 5F (Turf)
3 WP
12/1 ml. pace, recency, surface, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in this nine horse field full of question marks. aside from the 8 off a huge layoff i don't see anyone with consistent figs sprinting on the lawn that makes me feel the favs are ultra tough here. looking at today's race under today's circumstances IF this horse breaks well he should be able to clear this crew and he has shown much better energy and results on firm turf. like his overall improving pattern and that since moving to green sprints he has fired all three times on firm turf and struggled on courses rated "good". two back right at GP he looked pretty sharp against a 62.5K OC crew which in my view is very comparable to these non-graded stakjes. like that he's back in a stakes race after fading on the wet green last out. last out he had wet turf and "awkward break" in the comments and at face value it was a crappy race for him overall but with no published drills since a competent trainer puts him right back into a tough race. projecting she feels he's fit and ready. fairly lightly raced young 4YO could have more to offer while most of these are what they are as older fellas and/or heading the wrong way. obviously the main risks are a poor break and him getting gobbled up late. should hold decently on price they'll be all over a few others here. i'll try this guy. 1.0 units.
Outstanding!
I used Bold Thunder as a "B" on my pick 6, but had way too many eggs in Fiddlers Patriot's basket. That was a nice ticket at 6-1.
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