8/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in a race with a likely heavy fav and some others that are questionable in my view based on recency and other factors. i like the improvement this stiff showed second time out on figs, change in running style, and relaxing behind a couple horses and kicking it in at the right time. had three snappy drills in the month between his first two spins and had two decent drills since that last and right back into a tougher race. i'm projecting he's fit and ready to go. around two turns on the green the number he ran is quite competitive with these and he should be able to track behind the little sprinter stretching out here. needs to improve modestly here and not wait too long to move and should kick it in at the top of the lane and let the chips fall where they may. 0.75 units.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
race 6
Allowance N1X 3YO 8F (Turf)
5 WP
8/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, speed. i'm taking a shot here in a race with a likely heavy fav and some others that are questionable in my view based on recency and other factors. i like the improvement this stiff showed second time out on figs, change in running style, and relaxing behind a couple horses and kicking it in at the right time. had three snappy drills in the month between his first two spins and had two decent drills since that last and right back into a tougher race. i'm projecting he's fit and ready to go. around two turns on the green the number he ran is quite competitive with these and he should be able to track behind the little sprinter stretching out here. needs to improve modestly here and not wait too long to move and should kick it in at the top of the lane and let the chips fall where they may. 0.75 units.
1 - been away since November and looks to me like he was struggling late in his races when he stretched out around two turns. switched over to trainer only 8% off these kind of breaks. has figs and jock that will attract wagering action i'll take my chances he softens up late again off the pine.
2 - ran a 93 and then a 88 down at FG in two spins washed off the lawn. both were 5.5F and today he has to go 8F and around two turns. if he runs a 93 on this turf course around two turns he'll win by ten here. i'm rolling the dice he can't do that and taking my chances against him stretching out.
3 - maker/castellano and the "class edge" and the fav. two good turf spins to start his career, little layoff, then absolutely pummeled in the BC Futurity. back off the bench five weeks ago and he lost by 36 lengths. i don't trust him. i'll swing against him.
4 - jumped on the green and ran a new lifetime top. was right there and had no excuse but softened up late and was "outfinished" in a race that went 6F in 1:15 and change. i'm fading and taking my chances he can't kick it in strongly late.
6 - first time turf with modest turf blood and looks too slow overall but you never know jumping on turf he could pop. trainer pretty solid with this move to turf but i'm not comfortable expecting him to improve enough with turf to get it done here. 3/4 races he's folded late which i don't like as well.
7 - looks in over his head. if he pops 30 points and handles turf i tip my cap and move on.
8 - probably get played as a "sneaky" play. ran a 75 on turf last out which is very competitiv with these but i don't like how he did it. he made a move to go for it and then weakened and then went on the shelf. i'm curious why the layoff after a new lifetime top and why the long spacing between the drills. i'll take my chances fading.
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1 - been away since November and looks to me like he was struggling late in his races when he stretched out around two turns. switched over to trainer only 8% off these kind of breaks. has figs and jock that will attract wagering action i'll take my chances he softens up late again off the pine.
2 - ran a 93 and then a 88 down at FG in two spins washed off the lawn. both were 5.5F and today he has to go 8F and around two turns. if he runs a 93 on this turf course around two turns he'll win by ten here. i'm rolling the dice he can't do that and taking my chances against him stretching out.
3 - maker/castellano and the "class edge" and the fav. two good turf spins to start his career, little layoff, then absolutely pummeled in the BC Futurity. back off the bench five weeks ago and he lost by 36 lengths. i don't trust him. i'll swing against him.
4 - jumped on the green and ran a new lifetime top. was right there and had no excuse but softened up late and was "outfinished" in a race that went 6F in 1:15 and change. i'm fading and taking my chances he can't kick it in strongly late.
6 - first time turf with modest turf blood and looks too slow overall but you never know jumping on turf he could pop. trainer pretty solid with this move to turf but i'm not comfortable expecting him to improve enough with turf to get it done here. 3/4 races he's folded late which i don't like as well.
7 - looks in over his head. if he pops 30 points and handles turf i tip my cap and move on.
8 - probably get played as a "sneaky" play. ran a 75 on turf last out which is very competitiv with these but i don't like how he did it. he made a move to go for it and then weakened and then went on the shelf. i'm curious why the layoff after a new lifetime top and why the long spacing between the drills. i'll take my chances fading.
8/1 ml. recency, pattern, late speed, distance, surface. this is a real scramble here with a big field especially if the horse that will get bet very heavily does not run away with this. tossing his debut this guy has shown late energy every time around one turn and appears to have more opportunity to do his thing when he gets 6.5F. fired late from well off the pace on this keeneland polyfluff before as well. no edge on figs here aside from the chalk this is very, very wide open. i'm taking a shot this race is well contested with early and middle pace and kind of falls apart late. a handful of horses look to be eager for that early lead and this is a demanding sprint distance. he's been in a consistent racing pattern for a while now and comes here off almost five weeks of rest and relative to the bulk of this field he looks fit and ready. hopefully he sits chilly in the back, fires, and gets some run to make a run at it late. 0.60 units.
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race 7
Allowance N1X 4YO and Up 6.5F
4 WP
8/1 ml. recency, pattern, late speed, distance, surface. this is a real scramble here with a big field especially if the horse that will get bet very heavily does not run away with this. tossing his debut this guy has shown late energy every time around one turn and appears to have more opportunity to do his thing when he gets 6.5F. fired late from well off the pace on this keeneland polyfluff before as well. no edge on figs here aside from the chalk this is very, very wide open. i'm taking a shot this race is well contested with early and middle pace and kind of falls apart late. a handful of horses look to be eager for that early lead and this is a demanding sprint distance. he's been in a consistent racing pattern for a while now and comes here off almost five weeks of rest and relative to the bulk of this field he looks fit and ready. hopefully he sits chilly in the back, fires, and gets some run to make a run at it late. 0.60 units.
Not going to go through this entire field but here's my thoughts on this chalkie:
3 - no doubt his last two figs clearly give him an edge there. those were on a dirt surface that may have been pretty conducive to his front running style. never been on synth. i absolutely respect that he has those figs and also showed big improvement over his three year old races. no doubt. hasn't run as well when he's had friends go along with him early and middle. i'm taking a shot he doesn't get it so easy here and perhaps this race opens up.
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Not going to go through this entire field but here's my thoughts on this chalkie:
3 - no doubt his last two figs clearly give him an edge there. those were on a dirt surface that may have been pretty conducive to his front running style. never been on synth. i absolutely respect that he has those figs and also showed big improvement over his three year old races. no doubt. hasn't run as well when he's had friends go along with him early and middle. i'm taking a shot he doesn't get it so easy here and perhaps this race opens up.
race 6 - 7 is scratched. no real impact here. he was in for a real rough afternoon.
race 7 - 2 is scratched. disappointing as he had figs, sexy connections, "class", and been gone for a little over a year so easy fade since he folded late last two out but he was going to take money. still a bulky field.
race 8 - no scratches yet. huge field. real toughie. challenging distance for these young ladies.
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thanks rob. gl to you.
race 6 - 7 is scratched. no real impact here. he was in for a real rough afternoon.
race 7 - 2 is scratched. disappointing as he had figs, sexy connections, "class", and been gone for a little over a year so easy fade since he folded late last two out but he was going to take money. still a bulky field.
race 8 - no scratches yet. huge field. real toughie. challenging distance for these young ladies.
50/1 ml. pattern, distance, stamina, breeding, trainer. taking a swing for the fences here i see this race as extremely wide open especially at this distance. several key players off of little layoffs even though they were in decent form and some others that need major improvement for high profile connections. like how this gal improved dramatically jumping on turf last out and now goes 2nd off the bench for trainer 28% in this situation. i know it was Sam Houston but the fig is within range here and she settled nicely and passed horses moving well late. i'm aware she needs meaningful improvement here but it's not like these gals have been running big numbers. tree is interesting almost all sibs performed well going beyond a mile on the green and one ran a 92. i'll give her a shot to improve with the added distance. 0.50 units.
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race 8
MSW 3YO Fillies 9F (Turf)
8 WP
50/1 ml. pattern, distance, stamina, breeding, trainer. taking a swing for the fences here i see this race as extremely wide open especially at this distance. several key players off of little layoffs even though they were in decent form and some others that need major improvement for high profile connections. like how this gal improved dramatically jumping on turf last out and now goes 2nd off the bench for trainer 28% in this situation. i know it was Sam Houston but the fig is within range here and she settled nicely and passed horses moving well late. i'm aware she needs meaningful improvement here but it's not like these gals have been running big numbers. tree is interesting almost all sibs performed well going beyond a mile on the green and one ran a 92. i'll give her a shot to improve with the added distance. 0.50 units.
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