Kentucky Derby 145 Analysis & Picks

Kentucky Derby 145, Churchill Downs, 1-1/4 miles, Grade I

Every year I say the same thing about handicapping the Kentucky Derby………it’s excruciating. This year, the challenge is even greater because there is no Justify, American Pharoah or Big Brown to separate from the rest of the pack. Now, it’s been made more complicated by the defections of Omaha Beach and contender Haikal.

While I usually toss 5 or 6 horses almost immediately, I don’t think there is a single three-year old in this field that I can honestly say doesn’t have a chance to win the race or, at least, taste a slice of the cake. This includes the 50-1 shots and the 30-1 shots.

Why? With no one, two or three clear leaders; no group of blowout exceptional speedees and no stone closers with freight train kicks, this race could set up as one that could turn into another Giacomo or Mine That Bird affair (For those of you who might not have seen those races, please YouTube them to see what I mean).

Note this from Horseracingnation.com:

War of Will (now pp2), Tax (now pp3), etc. move one post to the right. “With Haikal having Post 11, Nos. 1-10 now shift out a spot given Bodexpress was the only horse on the also-eligible list. It's a minor boost to the chances of War of Will, who drew the rail. Post positions can change. Program numbers do not. Bodexpress will wear the No. 21 saddle towel, with the rest of the field corresponding to its original draws.”

Mike Smith will now ride Cutting Humor……………..

#1 (pp2) War of Will…...Ohhhhhhh what I’d give to see this boy in a post other than Number One (now post 2). However, due to the scratch of Haikal, he is now in the two hole, better than one, but not great. Churchill Downs’ Numero Uno and Numero Dos are the most brutal of all gate positions to navigate. Not good for a speed horse pinned to the rail ala Lookin At Lucky. This doesn’t mean that jockey Gaffalione doesn’t have the ability to get Will in position to win, but if this happens, Moses should hire the jock as his back-up to part Lake Michigan one day next winter. No doubt, War of Will can claim a piece of the prize money, but his style doesn’t lend itself to the late charge he’ll likely need. What’s right about him? Will has six graded stakes worth of experience in which he has performed masterfully. With the most stakes of anyone here, his resume includes two G-1, two G-II and two G-III races with a record of 6/2-1-0. One of the G-I wins was on turf. Key notes: WOW won a Maiden Special Weight race at CD in the slop last November as a two-year old. Beyer high is 94 in the LeComte. Jock and trainer are 19% wins in 2018-19. Out of War Front, as is Omaha Beach, and a Sadler’s Wells mare. Won three in a row before finishing 9^th last out in the La. Derby. Trainer Mark Casse said, “I think we’ll probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can.” 15-1 ML, now drifted to 18-1 as of Friday night, so the betting public doesn’t seem to be too impressed with the “better” position.

#2 (pp3) Tax…..The second place finisher in the Wood looks ready for this, but the three hole is another tough place to launch a ship……but still better than two. He’s demonstrated a decent break, but is he going to be able to push through the break of the #3 horse (4^th PP), By My Standards, who is in better position to go? Capable Junior Alvarado grabs the strap, so I am confident he’ll get into the comfort zone…..at some point. The gelding, a son of Arch and mare, Toll, a Giant’s Causeway. Tax is 5/2-2-1 lifetime with a win, a place and a show in three graded stakes. Trainer Danny Gargan isn’t a household name, but he is 23% wins this year with him and Junior winning three races together in 2019. Key notes: Tax has a Beyer best of 95, in the G-III Withers, with some nice work at Belmont coming in. In his maiden, he finished second at Churchill with a 66 Beyer. Claimed last October. Wet number of 405, a decent score on what might be sloppy going. Proceed with caution at 20-1? 41-1 as of Friday night.

#3 (pp4) By My Standards…….While he didn’t shock the world with his Louisiana Derby win at 10-1, he did beat two decent colts, Spinoff and Sueno. His Derby rider, Gabe Saez, is the only one to ride the colt in five career races (5/2-2-1). Sharpie Brett Calhoun has a lot of potential with the son of Goldencents (two-time BC Dirt Mile winner, 2013 SA Derby winner), but the boy will need a gigantic effort to win this. I am surprised that BMS is just 15-1 on the ML, and not higher, but winning his first stakes race, let alone a G-II prep race, helps a lot. Let’s see if he goes to the rail, or tries to move to the middle. In any event, he’ll be looking at a lot of rear-ends and buckets full of mud to the face. Key notes: Hit a 97 Beyer in the La. Derby, a full 11 points better than his previous race, an 86. The 86 is a thirteen points better than in his previous race. Improvement abounds, but he’ll need huge advancement on May 4 to win. His four works for this have been at Churchill. 14-1 as of Friday night.

#4 (pp5) Gray Magician………At 50-1 ML, not many are giving this guy a chance. In his second graded stakes race, the UAE Derby at Meydan, he finished second to Plus Que Parfait. He finished fourth in the Sham, a G-III race.  Trainer Pete Miller has done his best with the Graydar colt, but his top Beyer is just an 80, not good enough in this crowd. Key notes:  Van Dyke in the saddle. GM’s only win was in his maiden at Del Mar last November. Lifetime record of 7/1-3-2. Timeform of 103 in the UAE Derby. Down to 28-1 as of Friday night.

#5 (pp6) Improbable……Talent, talent talent, but out of City Zip, I cannot figure him for the win at 1-1/4 miles. Of the three Baffert’s in this, he might end up being the biggest money winner, if he spends a career at 1-1/16 miles or less. Irad Ortiz will need to move this guy into his customary stalking position, which he should be able to do since the two horses to his right and left are not exactly darts out of the gate. Improbable will likely have to deal with those rushing to the rail, but Irad knows his stuff. Track notes say he was “restless” during the Arkansas Derby. So how the hell do you think he will act in front of 175,000 people in Kentucky? Baffert partly blames blinkers for his second place at Oak Lawn. Look at his races. For what reason did Bob put the blinders on him? Made no sense to me, except it made a good excuse for Baffert for why he lost. He lost because Omaha Beach is a better horse. With the right trip, I think he can collect a major piece, but I will bet against for win. Key notes: Beyer high of 99 in the Ark. Derby. Third best mud number, 443. Three graded stakes with a win in the G-I Los Al Futurity and two second place finishes. Solid work for this. 5-1 ML is tasty for his backers. Now the fave at 9-2 as of Friday night.

#6 (pp7) Vekoma……..Why is a horse that has three graded stakes races with two GS wins and a second 15-1 ML? Have you seen his races? The horse leans and lugs like an immature two-year old instead of looking as professional as a three-year old should during a period when the maturation process should take hold. With a 20 horse field and with Maximum Security, to his left, crossing in front of him in his quest for an inside position, Vekoma is in for a huge challenge.  That said, he is a Candy Ride, as is Game Winner, and if the light goes on, he can run big and this is the time to do it. I think he will be pushing it in the early going and will have a tough time getting loose in the last furlong or so. Steady George Weaver trains with Castellano grabbing the leather. Key notes: Weaver said, ““This is a perfect spot. We wanted somewhere between post five and 10 and we got a great spot.”  4/3-0-1 lifetime record. Beyer high of 97 in his win in the Nashua (G-III).  Trainer is 9% wins in 82 races in 2019. 23-1 as of Friday night.

#7 (pp8) Maximum Security…….I have been up and down about this guy since he won the Florida Derby. Too lightly raced? Too much speed for his own good in this race? Over his skis in this field? After careful thought, I think he competes here. What turned me is my remembrance of the great Always Dreaming’s Derby Trail run. Always Dreaming was knocked as a lightly raced three-year old, undefeated going into Louisville after his win in the Florida Derby, just his third race. Gee, who does that remind you of? The highest Beyer of anyone in the race, with a 102 in his race previous to the FLA Derby (101 Beyer), he actually has one race more than Always Dreaming coming into the Kentucky Derby.  The key to winning the Derby with the past 5 or 6 three-year old crops is to stay near the lead and blow it out. That’s what this guy can do; perhaps, must do, to win the race.  With tepid gate speed on either side, I think he moves out early and comfortably to get into position, unless Improbable gets in his way. While the trainer’s workout method for him is goofy to me, Servis is doing something right. I think he runs a great race and has an excellent shot at the roses. Key notes: Technically, Max is not 3 years old. His birthday is May 21. Jason Servis is 30% wins this year. My guess is that Jason’s brother, John, trainer of Derby winner Smarty Jones, might be serving as a key advisor.  Max beat Bodexpress in the FLA Derby, Bode, who is now in the race, had his best effort so far with a 96 Beyer in the FLA Derby. Max’s grandfather was Street Cry. His Dad, New Year’s Day, won the BC Juve in 2013. Had New Year’s Day not been hurt in December of his two-year old year, he might have been a Triple Crown contender. 8-1 ML. down to 5-1 as of Friday night.

#8 (pp9) Tacitus………Feast or famine? Looking at his races, you can make a case for him to win the whole shootin’ match, or, in this field, he spits the bit with a half-mile to go. What to do with him? Sure, he’s won three in a row, including two graded stakes. He’s improved in each of his last three races, including his career high Beyer at 97 in his last, the Wood. He’s got Mott as trainer and Jose Ortiz, who won this year’s Oaks, as his rider. And, he is out of Tapit. I’m going to play both sides against the middle. I’m feeling lucky, so I’ll roll him into my top tier and hope he goes off at better than 5-1. If anyone will benefit from the post, it is him. To his left, Maximum Security will get out with turtle Plus Que Parfait to his right. This will allow Tacitus a clear path to sit back a bit, but to stay in the mix. You’ll recall, in the Wood, he got beat up a bit out of the gate before recovering. But can he hold off the other comers at the end? I thought he was the steadiest, most professional horse I saw during much of the Derby Trail. Can it continue? I think so and will bet accordingly. Key notes: A first timer to CD, his preparation has been very workman-like. Jose/Mott are 19% wins in 2018-19 in 94 races. Tacitus, with a 432 wet number, has beaten three of these: Tax, WIN and Haikal (now scratched). 8-1 ML. Down to 5-1 as of Friday night.

#9 (pp10) Plus Que Parfait…….He comes out of the UAE Derby at Meydan, the Winterfeld for horses. The last two Derby horses from there finished dead last! So why is he here, aside from getting in with a coupon from the Sheik?  PQP is 4/1-1-0 in graded stakes, so that’s OK. Trainer Walsh is one to watch with him and the jockey, Ricky Santana, 27% wins in 2018-19. He is a late runner and will go off at 50-1 or better, so if it breaks down and, if you’re looking for Giacomo or Bird, this is your guy. Key notes: $135K Keeneland sale out of a Dyaformer colt, Point of Entry, and an Awesome Again mare. Beat Harvey Wallbanger and Cutting Humor in his maiden win. According to Walsh, “I wanted something between two and 12, and that’s what we got.” 24-1 as of Friday night.

#10 (pp11) Cutting Humor………MIKE SMITH TAKES THE MOUNT with Corey Lanerie off for Todd Pletcher. The Sunland Derby winner. Lanerie is a very good jock, but there is a reason they call him “Money” Mike Smith. Tactically, without Omaha Beach around to cut past him, Cutting Humor might be able to settle back in a good position in the hands of a solid tactician. With Johnny V, Cutting Humor earned his best Beyer in the Sunland, a 95, a 19 point improvement over his previous. However, I have found Sunland to be a speed bias surface. His next best, an 85, was earned in a $75K O/C at Gulfstream. While he has faced good ones, winning will be no easy task. He has a bit of late kick, but maybe not good enough against most of those who will be making the final charge. If anyone could rate the colt, it’s Mike smith. His presence is a bit of a game changer for me. CH is 30-1, although with Smith on, my guess is that odds decrease. If you can, put him under. He could capture a nice slice. Key notes: Nice work on April 26. He’s out of First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway) and a Pulpt mare. He was a $400K FT seller. A road warrior, for sure, the Derby will be his 7^th career race with Churchill the 6^th track he’s raced at.  Down to 24-1 as of Friday night.

#11 Haikal……He has a foot issue, so he is scratched

#12 Omaha Beach……..I feel very bad for the horse, the connections and Mandella. What a great horse! My guess is we will see him in down the road, if his cough isn’t serious. Coulda, shoulda, woulda.

#13 (pp12) Code of Honor…….I like this son of Noble Mission (GB), a Euro warrior whose career record was 21/9-6-2. Daddy was winner of multiple stakes, including the Newmarket and Tattersails Gold Cup, biggies in Euro racing.  Code of Honor is also grandson of the great Galileo AND a full brother to Frankel. Trained by Shug, the lad is 3/1-1-1 in grades stakes, including the win in the Fountain of Youth. My pick in the Florida Derby, he got bumped around early, but hung tough enough to finish third. Johnny Velazquez picks up the mount again with Derby Day a time for a fresh start. The colt is legit and looks to improve on his 91 Beyer in the FLA Derby, which followed his lifetime high of 95 in the FOY. I think he travels well for about 7 furlongs, then let’s see what happens from there. If you like the horse, you have to like Johnny V up. A must include for me! Key notes: won debut at Spa under his Derby jock. Beat Vekoma and Bourbon War in FOY. 12-1 ML odds. Still 12-1 as of Friday night.

#14 (pp13) WIN WIN WIN……….A possible comer, but a troubled tripper, is he fast enough to keep up with the quickies? Highest Beyer is a 99, which he achieved in the $75K Pasco at Tampa as a two year old.  Next highest Beyer is 89 in the TB Derby where he finished third to Tacitus and Outshine. The son of Hat Trick (Japan) has done well in six career starts (6/3-2-1). His Pappy, out of Sunday Silence, is better known for producing grass horses. His dam is out of a Smarty Jones mare, so he has Derby DNA. WIN is 2/0-1-1 in graded stakes. Trainer Mike Trombetta is no stranger to the first Saturday in May when he had the favorite, Sweetnorthernsaint, in the 2006 run. The move to 13 is good news because 14, where he was before the OB scratch, is where the auxiliary gate starts and main gate ends, a bit awkward for some. However, if he can avoid trouble, no guarantee here, can he grab a morsel or two? Key notes: Trombetta would be the first Maryland trainer to win this since Graham Motion mentored Animal Kingdom in 2011. This is Win’s first go at CD. His only work here was excellent. 15-1 as of Friday night.

#15 (pp14) Master Fencer……..This year’s Japanese rep doesn’t look very good on paper, hence his odds of 50-1.  Lifetime, the boy is 6/2-2-0, including his maiden. He has no graded stakes experience, but he did finish second in a $305K stakes and fourth in a $126K affair. Runners from outside North America haven’t done well here. The environment, capped by the loud crowds, is something most are not accustomed to and, in fact, the global’s have had very early trouble in the last two races. MF’s Dad. Just A Walk, was a worldwide runner winning the Dubai Cup and Arlington Cup sporting a career record of 22/6-6-1. If Master Fencer gets out, he should handle the distance as his sire won the two-mile long Tenno Sho in 2013. A win would tip the earth off its access. Trainer Tsunoda said, “We are happy to be in the race.” Sounds like a man that just won a free trip to Louisville, KY.  Key notes: Leparoux rides, so if there is hope for this guy, a jock who specializes in distance and coming from behind is the right one to have. The colt’s lone work at CD was a pedestrian 1:05.1. 52-1 as of Friday night.

#16 (pp15) Game Winner……..I really began to dislike this horse after his SA Derby, whether it is because I perceived him to be a second place underachiever that won most of his races in short fields, or because of his smarmy trainer. After watching replays of his races and studying his form, the light went on for me. Game Winner is the man with the plan. A handicapper, for whom I have great respect, pointed out to me that the horse is the classic Derby winner. He did everything right as 2-year old champ, and he has improved at age three. He didn’t need to lay it all out in the SA Derby, so his second place there is of no concern. Oh, and let’s not forget that his stablemate needed the points from that race.  He challenged Omaha Beach in the Rebel losing by a nose.  His running style fits that of the last 5 or 6 Derby winners. 6/4-2-0 lifetime, the son of the great Candy Ride also sire to Gun Runner, the 2017 HOY, is 5/3-2-0 in graded stakes, including his G-I wins in the BC Juve, Del Mar Futurity and the American Pharoah. Yet, methinks he hasn’t run his race. I love when Baffert plays his horses against each other. Read the comments. Compared to GW, he makes it sound like Roadster and Improbable are the next AP and Justify, while damning Game Winner with faint praise, his way of downplaying the horse he likes best in “See, I told you” fashion. Check out this Baffert comment on the posts before the scratch of OB. “They’ll all be easy to watch. With Roadster I wanted the 16 so I got 16 and 17 and Improbable is a quicker horse. Anything but the one or two I’m fine with that. I think the good horses all drew well.” No mention of Game Winner, Bob? This horse can use the distance to his advantage, and the slop might help too. Though Game Winner is not a classic closer, he will be coming on at the end like Grant took Richmond. I won’t apologize for backing the new 9/2 fave (see Key Note for change in odds), although I am not convinced he goes off as the favorite. My pick for the roses. Key notes: GW won outside of California with a win in the BC Juve at Churchill with a second at Oak Lawn. Rosario and Baffert are 45% wins in 11 races since 2018. He runs wide, so the 15 doesn’t bother me. He won wide in the Juvenile.  Second highest wet number of 461. Up to spicy 6-1 as of Friday night and no longer the favorite.

#17 (pp16) Roadster…….He lucked out moving to 16, as opposed to where he was located. Seventeen is ZERO for 40 in the Derby. Another guy who has done nothing wrong, the Quality Road colt is 4/3-0-1 with two wins in a row, including his G-I SA Derby win. He finished third in the G-L Del Mar Futurity to Game Winner. Roadster can go wide, so the post shouldn’t be a factor and, my guess, is that he will stay slightly behind GW. I really like the move to Geroux and I don’t see Baffert tossing Frenchie off the mount in favor of Mike Smith, the only jock he’s ever had. A lifetime Beyer high of 98 in the SA Derby, he could be there at the end battling it out with the best of his generation. One observation to consider…..Short fields versus a race with 20 is a bit bothersome to me. Roadster’s last three have included 6, 5, 6 starters with 10 in his debut race. Key notes: Hand ridden work of 1:13.4 for this at SA on April 26. Geroux 21% wins in 2019, he’s ridden for Baffert 8 times since 2018 with one win. 5-1 ML. A rosy 10-1 as of Friday night.

#18 (pp17) Long Range Toddy……..Asmussen must have blanched after learning that the scratch moved his boy to 17, the 0 for 40 post, from 18, where American Pharoah won. With 8 career races, he’s the most experienced in this field, with four wins, a second and a third place. Toddy’s career high 95 Beyer came in the Rebel when he beat Improbable and Galleon. With a ton of speed to his left, LRT will need the tactical skills of his experienced jock, Jon Court, to take back enough to stay out of the fray, yet keep a nose up a few butts to stay in contention. Make no mistake. This is a good horse out of Take Charge Indy. Looks to be a kinda-sorta contender, but a piece might be the best he can do. Key notes: First trip to Churchill after Oak Lawn and Remington Park. Nice work of: 47.4 here on April 29 with another at CD on April 22. Toddy is 3/1-0-1 in graded stakes. Court and Asmussen are 27% wins in 2018-19. Up to 44-1 as of Friday night.

#19 (pp18) Spinoff……..Am I the only one who thinks Todd Pletcher has laid in the weeds during this entire Triple Crown season? This is my “surprise” horse, the guy I think can take a big bite on Saturday. Another one that has yet to run his race, the Hard Spun colt’s Daddy finished second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and second in the BC Classic that same year. Sire foals average win distance is 7.59 furlongs, higher than the Derby average, so take note. The colt is 4/2-1-1 lifetime with a graded stakes record of 2/1-0-1, including second and third places. The move to 18 is better than 19, though, with either position, he’ll go wide. Key for Spinoff is that he rallies for mid-track status and hopes to stay there until he kicks it. Here is what Todd said about the outside post. “I don’t mind being outside with Spinoff since he hasn’t experienced a lot of kickback that his closing kick propels him to the wire.” High Beyer of 95 last out in the La. Derby, the kid looks to improve on Saturday. He looks ready for run and will be a must-include for me. Key notes: Steady work coming into this. Franco takes the mount with him and Todd a whopping 33% wins in 113 races since 2018. Decent wet number of 391. A very enticing 56-1 as of Friday night.

#20 (pp19) Country House…….I keep coming back to this guy like a poodle on a fire hydrant thinking he is going to run a big, big race. No doubt, he’s capable, but he is such a plodder out of the gate, then, after finally righting himself, has to catch up. His nice closing kick doesn’t seem to save him. Nonetheless, Country House is in the Ky. Derby, and that is meaningful. With his lone win in his maiden, this Lookin At Lucky colt, whose 3-year old birthday, like Max. Security, is in May, is 3/0-1-1 in graded stakes. Close enough, but no cigar. Some would argue that his Pop should have won his Derby (he was the fave), but the one hole, along with 3 or four brutal pinballs, did him in. Incredibly, Lucky rallied to finish sixth, then came back to win the Preakness. Sire’s kids have average distant wins at 7.45F, very well among the field. Lest we forget that this is a Bill Mott horse. In addition, in the La. Derby, the colt achieved his highest Beyer, having improved in each of his last four races. I choose not to dismiss for at least some because I know this guy has something in him. I will put him in my tri. Key notes: His one work at CD was very good. Jockey Prat is having a nice year with 25% wins. CH’s half-bro, Lookin At Lee, was the second place finisher in the Derby in 2017. Up to 72-1 as of Friday night.

#21 (pp20) Bodexpress……..I, like most, dismissed this guy in the Florida Derby where he went off at longgggggg odds. He was great in that race chasing Maximum Security around the track before losing by 3-1/2. He earned a 96 Beyer in the race collecting a 91 in his race prior. Few will forget how his sire, Bodemeister, under Mike Smith, led the 2012 Ky. Derby all but the last 150 yards or so. Out of this hole, I don’t expect that to happen, but he is quick enough to get into the fray with the right tactics. I am not a fan of his jock, Landeros, but he and trainer Gus Delgado are 36% wins in 11 races. Delgado is 24% wins on the year. Bodexpress is on the improve, and I have a bit of a hunch, so I will include him at real high odds in my tri. Key notes: Keep in mind he is still a maiden. His only graded stakes was the Florida Derby race.  He occasionally has early trouble, but I think that is where the post will help. 30-1 ML. 99-1 as of Friday night.

My Picks:

Winner: #16 Game Winner. My back-up winners are #7 Maximum Security and #8 Tacitus

Second tier: #5 Improbable, #13 Code of Honor, #17 Roadster, #19 Spinoff

Third tier: #10 Cutting Humor, #14 Win Win Win, #20 Country House, #21 Bodexpress

Fourth tier: #1 War of Will, #2 Tax, #18 Long Range Toddy

$100 to win on #16 Game Winner

$30 to win, $60 to place on #7 Maximum Security

$20 to win, $40 to place on #8 Tacitus

$20 exacta straight: 16-7

$10 exacta straight: 16-8

$8 exacta wheel: 7.8/16

$12 exacta whl: 16/5, 17

$4 exacta whl: 16/13, 19

$3 tri: 16/5,7,8,13,17,19/5,7,8,10,13,14,17,19, 20, 21

$1 tri whl: 7, 8/5, 7,8,16,17,19/5.7.8.10.13.14.17, 19, 20, 21

Thank you for this, very well done!

Expert analysis, old friend.  I just hope the subtle post move on Will might help him get a better start and trip.  Good luck in all endeavors.

Thank you!  Great job ...

Thank you for the right up.  Well done. I have #1 Roadster and #2 Game Winner and Vekoma - long shot.