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Kentucky Derby 2023
Well, the Kentucky Derby hits its 149th year with most of us still approaching the race as if our lives depended upon our cashing a ticket. This year is no different, but as always, a handicapping challenge nonetheless, especially with FORTE out. This is the 19 year in which I’ve posted a Derby day analysis. Hope you enjoy it, but, most of all, I hope you’ll be able to take away a few things so you can win some money.
- Hit Show….Big credit for increasing his Beyer’s in every race he’s ever run, including the Wood, a race where he finished 2 to Lord Miles, a 59-1 shot. Unfortunately, the Wood of the 21Century isn’t the same Wood that we saw in Secretariat’s Triple Crown year of 1973 when he finished third! Hit Show’s second lowest career Beyer was in his lone CD race. Nonetheless, as I said, he Beyered Up in every race, so maybe a piece is in store. Never count out trainer Brad Cox and jockey Franco…25% wins as a combo in 64 races in 2022-2023, but the post is a toughie, so his late game is crucial. One last thing….those of us who worship sire Candy Ride will note that Hit Show is one of his boys. 30-1 ML. Oooooh la la?
- Verifying….I thought his Blue Grass was most impressive validated by a Beyer of 99 bested only by Tapit Trice, the ML second Derby ML fave. Verifying lost by a neck. Consider that he was brushed near the end, which might have cost him the win. He’ll likely sit back, but will he have enough kick to finish in the money? I’ll put him under in my wheels, but this is an “anything might happen” dude, and he can win it with a return to his Blue Grass form. Cox and jockey Gaffilione team at 27% wins in 2022-23. Oh, one more thing. His Pappy is Justify. I like 12-1 ML, which could drift upward. <
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