Kentucky Derby 05.05.2030
Yesterdays Results
Kentucky Oaks - Bets - $20 Win & Place - #5 & 9....Total Cost $80
YTD (-$80)
Since 1992, 26 of 30 (86.7% percent) Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95. This number would be 27 out of 29 if Maximum Security had not been disqualified in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, gifting Country House with a victory.
Todays Kentucky Derby Bets
$40 Win #8 Mage
$40 Win #7 Reincarnate
$1 Exactor ALL with 7,8 = $34
$1 Trifecta Box #5,7,8 =$6
Total Cost = $120
#8 Mage - Lightly raced 3yr old. Only ran 3 races in his career with 1 win and 1 second to Forte in the Florida Derby. Broke his maiden with a 101 Beyer in a fast 7F sprint. Not sure where this horse will be positioned early he has front running speed but showed last race that he can also run from off the pace. Either way I think this horse has a real good shot. He ran his heart out last race falling 1 length short to the KY Derby ML favorite Forte. That race was run with grueling fractions of 46, 1:10, 1:36 to finish the 1m & 1/8 race in a time of 1:49.1. This is one of the fastest horses at the 1m & 1/8 distance. This horse is bred for distance so the extra furlong shouldn't be an issue.
#7 Reincarnate - This derby is very wide open and the field doesn't show much early speed on paper. Except for the #22 Mandarin and #2 Verifying this horse has the best early speed in the field. Front runners have done very good in the derby with Medina Spirit wiring them just 2 years ago. This horses last race was in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby where he finished 3rd by 4 lengths running the 1m & 1/8 distance in a time of 1:49.3. The winner of that race was #14 Angel of Empire who is currently tied for favoritism at 9-2. The reason I really like this horse is because of his early speed. He ran the 1m Sham Grade 3 at SA wiring the field with a final time of 1:35.4 on the dirt. Setting grueling fractions of 22.1, 45.2, 109.2. This horse has the speed to take this bunch wire to wire. His last race showed he has the stamina to maintain his speed and his breeding's suggest he should handle the extra furlong no problem.
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