With Kentucky Derby betting favorites winning the last six “Run for the Roses”, 2019 might finally be the year that the post-time favorite disappoints and the plus-money payouts return – the exact reason horse racing bettors look forward to the Kentucky Derby every single year.
We've already seen a major shuffle in the Kentucky Derby betting odds after race favorite Omaha Beach was scratched from the race Wednesday due to a respiratory disease. Who's the new Kentucky Derby favorite? That would be Game Winner, who moved from 5/1 to 9/2 odds. He's follwed by Improbable and Roadster at 5/1 odds.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown, race predictions and picks, and the best racing bets for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:
1. War of Will (Jockey – Tyler Gaffalione, 15/1): This long shot won three in a row within the graded stakes ranks before a very disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby last time out. He had an excuse and was a non-factor early after an awkward step. Since that loss, his workouts have been fast and he will try to be forwardly placed. Thankfully, he has enough early speed to overcome the difficult inside post.
2. Tax (Junior Alvarado, 20/1): He ran second best to the eventual Wood Memorial Winner in Tacitus in his most recent showing. He’s another runner that likes to be close to the front end, and has never been farther back than third in any start during his four career races. Speed wise, he’s quick, but it was only four starts ago that he was claimed while racing against maiden company. If he can take advantage of the inside post, he should be placed within the first group of runners entering the first turn.
3. By My Standards (Gabriel Saez, 15/1): He’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby producing the upset at 22/1 odds. He did well in his first start versus stakes competition, albeit a very weak field. Competing against some of the top horses with a lack of experience will be a tough task for this runner, who could find himself in a good position to take advantage of an advantageous trip.
4. Gray Magician (Drayden Van Dyke, 50/1): This long shot finished second by three quarters of a length in the UAE Derby. His only win in eight career starts came in a six-furlong sprint against maiden company at Del Mar. In his only graded stakes race, he was not competitive and does not look like he will have much of an impact in the Kentucky Derby at all.
5. Improbable (Irad Ortiz Jr., 5/1): He is arguably trainer Bob Baffert’s best shot at another Derby win as he goes for back-to-back victories and his sixth “Run for the Roses” title. He will likely attempt to work out a stalking trip and has shown a nice late-closing kick. He has been the betting favorite in four of his five career races and will get a lot of attention at the Kentucky Derby betting windows this Saturday. He’s a definite must-have on top and in all slots for your exotic wagers.
6. Vekoma (Javier Castellano, 15/1): Jockey Javier Castellano is 0 for 12 in the Kentucky Derby with his best finish coming onboard Audible, who finished third last year. This runner with a very unorthodox racing style is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes by three and one quarter lengths on April 6. He’s racing his best when stalking the pace and should be put in a good position to make a competitive run in the deep stretch.
7. Maximum Security (Luis Saez, 8/1): He’s coming off an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby to remain undefeated through four career starts. Speed wise, he’s put forth some very impressive times and has shown a good amount of early speed, which should be useful in securing the front end early. He must avoid a potential pace duel upfront but stay close to the pace where his best efforts have been.
8. Tacitus (Jose Ortiz, 8/1): He has won three straight races and has shown a noticeable improvement speed wise with each career start. With only four career starts, he’s one of the most lightly-raced colts. His racing versatility is a huge asset and he looks to thrive off the gruelling Kentucky Derby distance.
9. Plus Que Parfait (Ricardo Santana Jr., 30/1): He recently won the UAE Derby but outside of that start, has been very disappointing - especially on North American soil where he was not competitive within the graded-stakes ranks. He’s a runner that should benefit from the speed upfront early and attempt to work out a trip from mid-pack. Although, he would need a lot of things to go his way in order to have a shot to hit the board.
10. Cutting Humor (Corey Lanerie, 30/1): He worked out a nice stalking trip to get the job done in the Sunland Derby. Although he added a graded-stakes win to his resume, the field was weak and, when compared to a lot of the other times in races at the same distance, he seems to be a bit slow.
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