0-for-1 on Fat Tuesday, with SURELY going off at +1380 odds and finishing second by a half-length after blowing the first turn. She paid $13.20 to place (+560), and $9.80 to show (+390). The exacta returned 57/1 odds, with a logical 7/2 shot comprising the other half. Hard not to like that, but a tough beat just the same. We are now 12-for-19 in the exacta this year, picking almost exclusively first-time starters, many at big odds.
Fair Grounds - Race 8
#6 MCGOLDEN (8/1 ml) (top pick)
Very interesting Goldencents colt here for the good first-out trainer Brendan Walsh, as he worked with VERSTAPPEN on Dec 22, who came out of that drill to win going 1 1/8 miles (as a 2yo) four days later on Dec 26 (with today’s rider Brian Hernandez in the irons). Next up, MCGOLDEN worked with NEW YEAR’S EVE, an unbeaten 2-for-2 filly who came out of that drill to win an allowance race here on Jan 29. No real issues since, and I suspect MCGOLDEN is very live in this spot at the big price.
#2 SNOWSCAPE (6/1 ml)
Frosted firster for the excellent debut trainer Cherie DeVaux, her first local drill came with BOUT TIME, who came out of that drill to win by 5 lengths at Fair Grounds on Jan 28 (notably with Brian Hernandez in the irons, who appears on our top pick). That’s probably a very good sign. Also note that DeVaux is hitting with first-time starters at a very respectable 16% over a large sample, while she also shows a giant falt-bet profit with today’s rider Deshawn Parker in the irons (3-for-6 over the past year, and 2-for-4 at this meet. Seems live, and should definitely be considered in exotics at this price.
#8 SETNA THE WISE (8/1 ml)
This grey Cairo Prince firster for Jason Barkley brought $335k at the April OBS last year (22 x the sire’s stud fee) after breezing a furlong in 10.1 (one tick off the day’s best). More recently, he seems to have outworked older 4yo barnmate QUICK MUNNY on Jan 7, who came out of that drill to run third in a maiden race here on Jan 28 (and led the race for the opening half mile). Also of note, this one’s older brother ATLANTIC ROAD won second time out for Todd Pletcher last year. The relevent trainer stats here are not good, but definitely some things to like at the price.
2022 stats:
Win record: 4-for-19 (221%)
Total win mutuels: $20.00 ($5.00 avg)
Our top selection is now 12-for-19 in the exacta, with several very large payouts (including some recommended exacta partners filling out the other half).
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