1-for-1 yesterday, with STAYED IN FOR HALF winning gate-to-wire at +180 odds. Our second choice PLAUSIBLE DENILE ran second, completing a nice exacta at +830 odds!
Gulfstream - Race 4
#7 ULTIMA COPA (8/5 ml)
First off I must note, I don’t ordinarily post horse selections with such a short morning line, but I’m making an exception here because (a) I don’t know what the final odds will be, and I’d be happy with 8/5 at post-time, and (b) I think she looks a lot more obvious on video than on paper, and thus might offer some value. Second-time starter for the HOF horseman Christophe Clement (who excels with turf maidens, fwiw) was reasonablly well-supported at +470 odds in debut before running a good third, but that doesn’t really do her justice. She hopped at the break to be off slowly, then found herself buried in traffic with little place to go up the backstretch, then got hung very wide turning for home and lost even more ground that way. Ended up beaten a couple/few lengths, but appeared best in my opinion. What’s more, her race was flattered when the winner MY PHILLY TWIRL returned to win an allowance race on Feb. 16 over this same course. During the interim, ULTIMA COPA has returned tro work with the same unraced filly (SPURT, watch for that one) that she had worked with in her final pre-race drill last time. All systems go here.
One interesting longshot exacta possibility is #10 THEREARENORULES (8/1 ml). First-time starter for Thomas Proctor worked a couple of times in Januray with MANDY GREEN, who came of of those drills to win an MCL35 at Gulfstream (at 8/1 odds) on Jan. 23. In fact, MANDY GREEN was claimed out of that debut race (always a good sign), so it would seem she was well-regarded despite the longshot price. Following those drills, THEREARENORULES worked with GATHER AS YOU GO, an older 4yo barnmate who came out of that drill to win by 3 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs (at 14/1 odds) on Feb. 12. Tough spot here for an unraced horse debuting around two turns from a wide post from a barn that doesn’t win with firsters very often (and has no real record with rider Julian Leparoux), but there are definitely some things to like, and he would definitely provide some juice in the exacta pool if he can finish second.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
1-for-1 yesterday, with STAYED IN FOR HALF winning gate-to-wire at +180 odds. Our second choice PLAUSIBLE DENILE ran second, completing a nice exacta at +830 odds!
Gulfstream - Race 4
#7 ULTIMA COPA (8/5 ml)
First off I must note, I don’t ordinarily post horse selections with such a short morning line, but I’m making an exception here because (a) I don’t know what the final odds will be, and I’d be happy with 8/5 at post-time, and (b) I think she looks a lot more obvious on video than on paper, and thus might offer some value. Second-time starter for the HOF horseman Christophe Clement (who excels with turf maidens, fwiw) was reasonablly well-supported at +470 odds in debut before running a good third, but that doesn’t really do her justice. She hopped at the break to be off slowly, then found herself buried in traffic with little place to go up the backstretch, then got hung very wide turning for home and lost even more ground that way. Ended up beaten a couple/few lengths, but appeared best in my opinion. What’s more, her race was flattered when the winner MY PHILLY TWIRL returned to win an allowance race on Feb. 16 over this same course. During the interim, ULTIMA COPA has returned tro work with the same unraced filly (SPURT, watch for that one) that she had worked with in her final pre-race drill last time. All systems go here.
One interesting longshot exacta possibility is #10 THEREARENORULES (8/1 ml). First-time starter for Thomas Proctor worked a couple of times in Januray with MANDY GREEN, who came of of those drills to win an MCL35 at Gulfstream (at 8/1 odds) on Jan. 23. In fact, MANDY GREEN was claimed out of that debut race (always a good sign), so it would seem she was well-regarded despite the longshot price. Following those drills, THEREARENORULES worked with GATHER AS YOU GO, an older 4yo barnmate who came out of that drill to win by 3 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs (at 14/1 odds) on Feb. 12. Tough spot here for an unraced horse debuting around two turns from a wide post from a barn that doesn’t win with firsters very often (and has no real record with rider Julian Leparoux), but there are definitely some things to like, and he would definitely provide some juice in the exacta pool if he can finish second.
...and that's why you shouldn't bet odds-on favorites in horse racing. ULTIMA COPA gets bet down to 3/5 odds and runs well, but finishes second as she simply spotted the 30/1 longshot SENSITIVITY too easy of an early lead. Honorable mention THEREARENORULES finished fourth.
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...and that's why you shouldn't bet odds-on favorites in horse racing. ULTIMA COPA gets bet down to 3/5 odds and runs well, but finishes second as she simply spotted the 30/1 longshot SENSITIVITY too easy of an early lead. Honorable mention THEREARENORULES finished fourth.
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