Oaklawn and GP Sat May 2 Derby Day

I am going to treat this as derby day and boy does it feel exciting! Wife gave me the ok to fire $1,000 and just got done capping and it looks like fast and firm at all tracks today. I play price horses that look to outrun their odds and possibly win. Playing $10 to win on all my picks and playing some $2 DD and Pick 3s also.  Good luck all!

Oaklawn

Race 1: #4 Hot Mess 12-1ml looks like she fits against the step up in competition. Will be on the pace in  a sprint without tons of pace signed on. With her best effort can hold for the win. DD 2,3,4/3,5,6

Race 2: #5 Extra Effort 8-1ml  Homebred by the Wests and they sent her to the Cat man to train since Servis is gone. Works have been good at OP and Garcia rides for her debut at the races. Lots to like.

Race 3: #3 Bebop Shoes 6-1ml  state bred allowance and not much in here but the 2 and 3. The 2 will be very short odds and I am hoping the 3 can get him late. 2-3 box and 2,3/7,8,9,11/8,9,11,12 pick 3

Race 4: #8 J Z My Man 5-1ml deserves a look in this maiden race. Pharoah 400k purchase bet to fav in career debut at SA sprint on turf and didn’t show much. Moves to dirt and works at OP have been nice.

Race 5: #8 Two Thirty Five 8-1ml is my best bet at OP today! Baltas has done some good training work with this one and came to OP last month and got a nice win. Should really trip out as there should be a duel up front with some cheap speed and this horse loves this distance with 4 wins from 6 starts.  

Race 6: #2 Second Line David 8-1ml  steps up from maiden claimers to MSW. Big ask plus horse was claimed off Cox last out. But long race for maidens and this one has shown an affinity to handle distance just fine. Good post and should save ground and be right there. 2,3,3/7,8,10/1,2,10 pick 3

Race 7: #7 Kiss the Girl 6-1ml  finally gets to stretch out and run on a fast track. Will be overlooked as the two Cali favs will get bet big. Distance should be perfect and stamps herself as a division player today.

Race 8: #2 Wild Popit 10-1ml gunned from the rail last out and faded late against similar. Looks to prefer stalk and ponce type trip and hoping the 1 shows pace and this one can set up shop right behind.

Race 9: #10 Mo Gotcha 12-1ml should be forwardly placed early and secure a good trip sitting 2 or 3. Has put in two decent efforts here at OP this year as a short price but now gets a big ml and will be overlooked. Can be right there at long odds for sure. 5,6,10,13/10,12/1,4,11 pick 3

Race 10: #12 Background 15-1ml is my longshot of the day! Horrible race in slop last out against much tougher so form is muddied up perfectly to cash on a bomb here. Lots of pace in this race and this gelding loves to come running late. Baze gets back on and fired a bullet last week. Go time at long odds!

Race 11: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby 1 Division   #11 Basin 8-1ml should get perfect no excuse outside stalking trip behind the favs 1 and 4. Those two haven’t raced on this surface so maybe they don’t take to it. The 11 finally gets a fast track again and was super fast as a 2 yr old on a fast track.

Race 12: Grade II Oaklawn Handicap   #13 Night Ops 15-1ml is the horse for this course. Many of the favs new to OP so you just don’t know what they will do. There is pace signed on and this one needs pace to win. He will be coming late and worth a gamble. Also worth throwing in a tri box with the logical shippers. Tri box 2-4-13-14 and 2,4,13,14/4,5,9/1,5,13 pick 3

Race 13: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby 2 Division  #9 Taishan 15-1ml will be overlooked after a disappointing third last out at 5/2 in a local stake but that race was in slop and was run at a really fast pace and he tired late after getting the lead. He looks to fit stalking the top choices and the 4,5,11 favs may really duel on a hot pace. If those three battle this one will get a big piece and maybe even get the W

Race 14: #13 Curlin Gray 10-1ml  Crazy long race and these are very hard to predict. My philosophy in marathons is find a 4 or 5 yr old in decent form with some recency that’s bred for distance that has never tried a marathon and just hope. Here you are.

Gulfstream

Race 1: #11 Maine 20-1 ml is a longshot worth betting on. Speed and fade in debut and then raced evenly cutting back to 5 furlongs last out. Gets back to a mile and wont be bet but works have been steady and this 475k purchase may be ready for a big effort. DD 3,4,8,10,11/3,6,7

Race 2: #3 Baba Tobi 12-1ml   Winless trainer, winless bug jock, winless horse in 2019 and first start in 2020. This horse won’t be touched at the windows but looks like he has a chance to me. He only races well at GP and finally gets back here off some local works the last few months. These are the type horses you look back in the form after they win and figure out what you missed. Im not missing it.

Race 3: #5 Hard Lighting 12-1ml  2 time starter stretching out after ok 5 at 60-1 in 12 horse field. Winner has already come back to win so maybe that was a good maiden race. Very steady works since with a bullet. Capable GP connections and bred to stretch out. 1,4,5/3,4,7/1,6,7 pick 3

Race 4: #4 Kays Dream 12-1ml  First time starter in maiden claiming race. Works have been steady and could be any type. I always look for the work two back in these races and it was a good 4f drill.

Race 5: #6 Jamaican 12-1ml   Gonna have to hustle this one out of the gate at 6 furlongs - maybe this 4 yr old gelding can stalk and pounce on the cut back.  

Race 6: #6 Freezer Run 6-1ml best bet at GP today. This filly is a race horse should be near the lead early and has enough gas late and take this. Love the turf try last out that muddies up her form a little although she even raced fast in that one too.  Just has the look of a real good Florida sprint filly

Race 7: #7 Ole Mole 15-1ml is my GP longshot of the day! He drops a tad and cuts back in this field of weak turf runners. Should sit the dream 3 or 4 early. Any horse in this wouldn’t shock me and this is the type race to play an exacta with some ml bombs and start a pick 3 with some bombs. 4-7-8 ex and 4,7,8/3,6,8/1,2,9 pick 3

Race 8: #6 Gump 8-1ml has worked well since 2 start of the year at similar level against same class horses and now you may get the right price after he disappointed at a mid-price contender last two races. Saffie Joseph tabs Tyler Gaffalione to ride and this is the time to bet this 4yr old gelding.

Race 9: #9 Astoria Kitten 12-1ml makes her 3 yr old debut and was good on the NY turf races as a two year old and that circuit is super tough. Steady works and bred for stretching out and has good pace for a Kittens Joy which is needed at GP. With normal improvement from 2 to 3 she is very logical.

Race 10: #8 Royal Squeeze 10-1ml   There is no pace in this stake sprint at GP and that’s very weird. On pace projection alone the #8 is a great value as he figures to get a dream trip on a slow lead or stalking 2 to a slow pace leader. Win bet opportunity as all he has to do is break and show his normal early pace to have a great no excuse shot to win. Using logicals in pick 3 also 3,6,8/1,3,4,9/4,9,10,11 pick 3

Race 11: #1 Express Pharoah 201-ml  recent maiden winner steps way up but has some pace and should have a chance to trip out and you never know. Worth the bet against some top connection runners.

Race 12: #9 Beach Dreaming 6-1ml  Wide open cheap turf event and this one is consistent racing the number it will take to win. two works off troubled trip in last which may muddy him up some. 6-1 or more would be quite a nice price.

Good to see you David.

I'll be checking your plays to see if we match or incorporate one that makes us both winners.

Whoa...rough trip for Maine in the 1st @ GP.

Gl Hotlanta

Alive to a nice DD. Let’s go 

Picked up the nice $130 DD at GP. My bomb #3 raced decent 4th also at 40-1. At least he gave me a little sweat 

Hey Mon..you shakin wit da Jamaican!!!

 Landeros fills in for Paco and sends him like Paco!  I love it!