Oaks/Derby Tidbits

Luis Saez gets a chance to absolve himself on Essential Quality for getting DQ'd on Maximum Security in the 2019 Derby. There's still discussion as to whether he should have been taken down. Since Saez took over from Bridgmohan (He rode EQ in his 1st race), he's but has been tested by both Highly Motivated & Hot Rod Charlie. 

Surprised to see Trainer John Sadler take Rispoli off #15 Rock Your World & replacing him with Joel Rosario. Even though Rosario was up on this colt when he broke his maiden 1st time out, it still has to burn for Rispoli. 

At 2, #18 Super Stock lost to EQ by 5 lenghts in the BC Futurity @ Keenland. Asmussen had him ready to fire in the Arkansas Derby when he upset the filed @18-1. He's only won 2 of 8 but does he have another big race in him or did he shoot his load in his last race?

Rock Your World upset big favorite Medina Spirit in the SA Derby. Actually, he buried Medina Spirit by almost 5. He has a real nice bullet workout on March 28th going 5F @ 59.1. He's not going to get the lead so easily this time IMO. Sadler had him on the turf in his 1st two wins & had to be very high on him to put him on the dirt in the SA derby. 

You always have to see where the Ortiz brothers land. Irad got stuck on the rail for Pletch with #1 Known Agenda & I thought he would get the distance easily but I have to re-evaluate his chances with this post. Jose gets on another Pletcher colt #11 Dynamic One who gave up the lead to #20 Bourbonic in the Wood.

Please add your data as time permits.

Hi Midnight.

Post 1 should be a little better with the recent additional  15' added from the rail.

Tough break for Irad but if anyone can orchestrate a move it be him.. Hasnt won one yet either. hmm

I'm in the minority but I think/hope Bluegrass grind with HM took a little something out of the favorite.

Watching morning works a few are doing very well.King Fury,, Bourbonic, but RYW has to be the most beautiful  and imposing horse right now at Churchill. 

  Curse of the wise guy horse. Oh nooo..  he might be it.

At the mile point in the mile quarter race, the last 7 derby winners were first, second or third at that point & four of the last 7 were on the lead.

The ability to be on the lead or just off the pace has been essential. The last quarter mile is all about stamina & you have to realize none of these colts have gone this distance yet in their young careers. Pedigree certainly comes into play.

The lowest $2 tri in the last 25 years has been $173.20 with Nyquist on top in 2016. The largest $2 tri paid $133,134.80 with Giacomo on top in 2005.

Rain has fallen on 11 of the last 13 derby days.

For your Oaks/Derby doubles, the last jockey to win both races in the same year is Calvin Borel on Rachel Alexandria & Mine That Bird.  

These are the jockeys with a chance to duplicate what Calvin Borel did by winning the Oaks & Derby. For fun, it might be worth playing them all in doubles.

Santana, Carmouche, Gafflione, Irad & Jose Ortiz, Castellano, Geroux, Cohen, Saez, Johnny V, Rosario all have a chance. 22 bucks will do it.

Forgot Prat...he has a mount in both as well raising the play to 24 bucks.

Good stuff, MIdnight. I'm afraid Bourbonic may fall into the "If you didn't go to the wedding, don't go to the funeral" category.

Where are all the old timers like Crush, spilquid ,JR, Pittsburg phil, mikey, Atlanta, forgetting a few.

and who was the guy that chimed in from across the pond? Liked him.

All good cappers.

Not a stunning prediction but I think the EQ settles at 3-1. Cant see how he stays that low.

Also RYW may drift down and settle in at 9/2. 

Something tells me Irad gets out of the gate clean and saves ground along the rail.

6-1 may be the best odds on the board. 

Derby winning trainers in this year: Baffert, Pletcher & O'Neil.

Derby winning jockeys in this year: Velasquez, Smith, Rosario & Prat. 

First time trainers in this year: Cox, Diodoro, Oliver, Velasquez & Ward.

First time jockeys in this year: Carmouche, Cohen, Rispoli & Pedroza.

For those like me who like #1 Known Agenda, here's some good news/bad news.

Good news: the rail @ Churchill is winning @ 18%.

Bad news: the last winner of the derby from post #1 was Ferdinand 35 years ago.

Midnight, who you like in the oaks today?

@jhoss00

 I'm still deciding.

Medina Spirit was purchased for 1k as a yearling.