OK....AS OF TODAY (4-16) Who U LIKE on May 7

Question

I need to review all the preps, but does anyone else think, as I do, that the overall talent from top to bottom in the probable Derby field has seldom been better since the dawn of the 20 horse field?

Looking at Exaggerator, Nyquist (duh!), Mohaymen, Destin, Mor Spirit and another look at Cupid after today's bed-pooper

mikeyp1 · Answer

I need to review all the preps, but does anyone else think, as I do, that the overall talent from top to bottom in the probable Derby field has seldom been better since the dawn of the 20 horse field?

Looking at Exaggerator, Nyquist (duh!), Mohaymen, Destin, Mor Spirit and another look at Cupid after today's bed-pooper

Tygermyke · Answer

Okay, Mikey.  Don&#x27;t throw my Looziana bias in my face.  But if Gun Runner goes off at 15-1 i&#x27;m all over him.  Love him or hate him Asmussen wins big races.

mikeyp1 · Answer

Myke....You are correct, sir. Hope that they keep the Frenchman on him. 20-1?

vetdrm · Answer

TygerMyke  I would take him at roughly half those odds.

mikeyp1 · Answer

Yes....but when the Kentucky sharps set the odds, the looming outsider will be "dismissed" at long odds.

vetdrm · Answer

Ive been reading some feel Moheyman is regressing and will not run well in the Derby after his dismal performance ,losing to Nyquist in the Florida Derby.
It looked to me like he changed pace not once but twice and never noved from the outside path he was on.

This guy was the solid Derby favorite heading into that race and had he won you would not have even seen 3-1 on Derby Day

So,do we throw that race out and just say it wasnt his day or are certain racing purist correct about him losing some ground.

Cant help but think he could be 8-1.
Still keeping him in several Tri's.
Thoughts?

angrybarber · Answer

OK here&#x27;s my thought, Dazzling Gem ran in both the La Derby and Ark Derby. Rarely do you get that kind of cross race comparison, now he had every opportunity to flatter the La Derby. He failed to do so, therefore IMO as far as the La. Races are concerned Gun Runner is the only useable horse, and i would even question that.The Wood was pretty awful and Brodys Cause as good as it looked was actually pretty slow closing that race. Exaggerator, sure with a suicide pace or an off track. Sometimes we just overthink this looking for a price, the last 5 Derby winners won their previous race. 4 of those won a G1 major prep. Right now Nyquist just looks the best.

jerryjr · Answer

Ok guys,I&#x27;m writing down  everybody&#x27;s picks,who ever wins is the king of the derby day. Until Belmont day there will be another king or the same King. Who have 5 horses to pick , here are mine. Nyqyist,gun runner,moyanham,destin,exaggerator.

angrybarber · Answer

Mohaymen looked so good, as far as pace numbers go his Holy Bull was the best 3 yr old race. It's actually not even close, but the horses that were considered good who he beat came to just run awful. Greenpointcrusader,Zulu, Flexibility. His Fla Derby is just not how you wanna see a horse run leading to the Derby, based on my knowledge of the Derby i simply can't back him. He actually reminds me of another McGlaughlin horse- Soldat.

So 2 pace scenarios,
Sensible pace:
Nyquist, Mor Spirit, Destin, Outwork, Gun Runner
Hot Pace:
Nyquist, Exaggerator, Creator, Brodys Cause, My Man Sam.

If Baffert decides to scrap Cupid, which he should after his terrible race yesterday. That could greatly change the Pace scenario, you'd be left with Danzing Candy and Outwork. Not so sure they go to fast with those 2 leading the way. Which then would make Outwork a player and gives all the 2nd tier horses a great shot, closers would likely be left with to much to do. Cupid wants the lead I've never seen a horse hustled out of the gate like him in route races. Plus Garcia is aggressive, after yesterday i simply don't believe he's good enough but he definitely will affect the pace scenario. i guess we will know soon enough

mikeyp1 · Answer

Excellent comments, boys. Lots to think about.

I like the comments about Mohaymen. His odds surely will be 8-1 or better; not surprised to see 10-1 or better.

A few questions for the panel.....

What about Mor Spirit? If he gets his head on straight, does he charge forward with a huge close if he gets a pace?

Same can be said for SBNews, Exaggerator and Creator. Does Destin or Gun Runner stay close and pounce?

Do we simply crown Nyquist? He certainly appears to be a head above everyone else.

Has the late bloomer Outwork run his race yet? Same can be asked about Brody's Cause.

Ahhhhhhhhhh. Talk Derby to me!

vetdrm · Answer

Anyone else have lawn work to do? Darn it Mikey

Good observations angry.No denying Nyquist is the best horse.

But how much better?In a field of 20 am I still certain he can get the job done at 2-1.

Or would I take a chance with another very versatile horse like Destin who can also run from either pace.and at much better odds.

And I know the thought process now would be ,wouldnt I rather get

$6 back on the best horse with my $2 investment, then nothing at all? Of course I would.

But therein lies the rub.

"Pace develops in every race run every day."

There will be an array of too lates and too early prospects that will miss

the line or peter out.

Its just the wise person that can piece together the intentions of a field of racing styles this large,and see where the mismatches are.

I think there are eight horses that can win it. Eight

Holy snikey

How do you play a tri wheel with that for under 150

Im going to end up going something like 3x8x15 for a 50cents tri.

Anyone know what that will cost?

mikeyp1 · Answer

Vet....No yard work for me today. Looking for a place to live, then Blackhawks and Cubs.

vetdrm · Answer

Rub it in my friend- rub it inNot fair you should have two stellar teamswhile I suffer with noneNew home?

mikeyp1 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by vetdrm] Rub it in my friend- rub it in&#xD;&#xA;Not fair you should have two stellar teams&#xD;&#xA;while I suffer with none&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;New home?&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Last of the 4 boys headed off to college....IF he graduates....... Downsize big-time

nature1970 · Answer

Besides my three i like Cupid and the then I am not sure the name but in won in UAE it Kentucky needs and races in Japan. Alot of good workouts at Churchill it could win both our trip crown and it is a contender for Japs tri crown. Lani or something of that sort. But it should go off as a 35-1 outside long shot and with the right trip it could be the upset of the day.

nature1970 · Answer

Anny way this Kentucky thorough bred is in my box tri and ex wheels.scope....

Upside · Answer

There is no way in hell I will be playing NYQUIST on top in any of my tix ....but I was the same guy who said AP would not win the Derby ...lol .... so you guys may be okay ....

Nyquist falls into a 1/75 of all previous Derby Winners ...

Keep betting this puppy down , I love it ...

angrybarber · Answer

Upside what is the stat? You say these things but never elaborate, so please do.

Upside · Answer

No one has an interest on what I say bro , that&#x27;s why I seldom share on this sight .... I will send you a private message ...

angrybarber · Answer

Thanks

Upside · Answer

Any PM thoughts on it would be appreciated ...

vetdrm · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;not true bro&#xD;&#xA;always interested in your comments

Roused · Answer

Outwork, Wood was slow and he was almost beat by a maiden, but he did set a pressured pace and Johnny V will be aboard. 12-1 ?

vetdrm · Answer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6GbGD1J3k8Got to say,I was impressed.Leave off at your own risk

OK....AS OF TODAY (4-16) Who U LIKE on May 7

Hot Forum Topics