Post FLA Derby Picks

Like many of the FLA Derby’s we have seen  in past years, this is a real speed burner with 6 or 7 of these capable of taking the lead, and maybe running and hiding.  Front runners are: RULE,  Lentenor,  Game on Dude, First Dude, Miner’s Reserve, Best Actor and possibly Radiohead, who is out the 11-hole and will need to get out. Looks like a few good stalkers here too, including all of the remaining 4 horses.

#7 RULE…..one of the classiest in the field; owner of 3-over 90+ Beyers , including his career high 98 last out in the S.F. Davis.; it’s hard to believe that he has already won $716K too.  I am not a big believer in bounces for 3-year olds. There are plenty of them who have a hard enough time keeping all-fours on the track, let alone putting together a consistent racing pattern, so I don’t see that happening.  If he gets beat, he gets beat by pure speed just the way Quality Road ran down Dunkirk last year. And the one that could do it is…

#11 Radiohead….Class horses win this race (Barbaro, Quality Road, Monarchos, Big Brown, Empire Maker, Holy Bull), and this one has class. Out of Johannesburg, whose son, Scat Daddy, won this race, he is following a similar path that his sire took, and that was starting out in graded stakes in Europe and making his way to North America.  This guy has 5 graded stakes under his belt already with a record of 5/1-1-1 and, while 7^th in the BC Juve, he lost by just 4 under a bad ride by Euro-jock Dwyer that choked the life out of him. While I have been struggling with the 11 post, I think his Euro experience will help him to be better than that and Edgar, who has him today, rode the pants off him last time.  His last win was over this strip in his one and only career dirt start.

#4 Pleasant Prince….I am going to take a leap on him at 15-1 as I think he actually did OK in the FOY earning an 89 Beyer finishing that race well. His work coming into this is outstanding, and he is rounding into form. I like the Flying Frenchman in the saddle in a race where a closer could win it, and I expect him to come late.

#8 Ice Box…didn’t get out of the gate in the FOY, but still managed to rally for 5^th and a Beyer of 86, and the work going into this shows improvement is in his future. Switch is back to Lezcano, which is good, and I expect a late charge from him as well.

#2 Lentenor…I have been trying to rationalize the Barbaro connection here, but I am having difficulty with it. This is a great horse, and I think the connections are figuring that he can run on dirt for sure, even though he is a career turfer, and, why not take a shot in a race his bro won? The note on the PP’s says that there is a concern that he might not react right to dirt being pushed into his face first, so maybe the tactic is to gun him and see if he can wire. Good strategy, as he is fully capable of doing it. First time in graded stakes, but game enough for me.

#3 Pulsion….This is a much better horse than he has shown his last two races, including the FOY, so I expect a rebound of sorts.  We’ll see if the switch to Nakatani does anything.

#9 Miner’s Reserve…..Zito, Kent D. and Robert LaPenta  is a great connection. While he is capable of winning this, he has only two career races, but plenty of potential. My guess is that this Mineshaft colt is being set up for the Belmont, much the way Nick patterned Birdstone and Summer Bird.

My Picks: #11 Radiohead to win and place

$20 ex box:   7, 11

$10 EX KEY: 11/2,4, 8

$5 ex key:  7/2, 4, 8

$3 TRI WHL: 11/2, 4, 7,8/2, 3, 4, 7, 8

$1 TRI WHL: 7/2, 4, 8,11/2, 3, 4, 8, 11

GL  TO ALL

#4 Pleasant Prince….I am going to take a leap on him at 15-1 as I think he actually did OK in the FOY earning an 89 Beyer finishing that race well. His work coming into this is outstanding, and he is rounding into form. I like the Flying Frenchman in the saddle in a race where a closer could win it, and I expect him to come late.

#8 Ice Box…didn’t get out of the gate in the FOY, but still managed to rally for 5^th and a Beyer of 86, and the work going into this shows improvement is in his future. Switch is back to Lezcano, which is good, and I expect a late charge from him as well.

#2 Lentenor…I have been trying to rationalize the Barbaro connection here, but I am having difficulty with it. This is a great horse, and I think the connections are figuring that he can run on dirt for sure, even though he is a career turfer, and, why not take a shot in a race his bro won? The note on the PP’s says that there is a concern that he might not react right to dirt being pushed into his face first, so maybe the tactic is to gun him and see if he can wire. Good strategy, as he is fully capable of doing it. First time in graded stakes, but game enough for me.

#3 Pulsion….This is a much better horse than he has shown his last two races, including the FOY, so I expect a rebound of sorts.  We’ll see if the switch to Nakatani does anything.

#9 Miner’s Reserve…..Zito, Kent D. and Robert LaPenta  is a great connection. While he is capable of winning this, he has only two career races, but plenty of potential. My guess is that this Mineshaft colt is being set up for the Belmont, much the way Nick patterned Birdstone and Summer Bird.

My Picks: #11 Radiohead to win and place

$20 ex box:   7, 11

$10 EX KEY: 11/2,4, 8

$5 ex key:  7/2, 4, 8

$3 TRI WHL: 11/2, 4, 7,8/2, 3, 4, 7, 8

$1 TRI WHL: 7/2, 4, 8,11/2, 3, 4, 8, 11

GL  TO ALL

Sticking with Rule. Just hope he does not get fried up front. Big test today and hoping they try to rate the horse and get him to relax. But thats a big if.

Nice write up Mike. GL today.

Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:

 Soaring Empire might surprise a few.

HUGE test for Rule today, and after capping, I can see why his connection kept him here rather than the Wood.

I tossed sparing Empire for a few reasons. First, I think the post hurts him in terms of getting out in good order with this ton of speed,inclduing the #2 horse.. Also,while his work is good, I think his lack of experience will hurt him. This is just his 2nd race as a three-year old, and 5th overall, and there are some already-knockers in here.

Make no mistake, though. I think Soaring Empire will be ready for Belmont, and maybe where that's where he is being pointed.

Kursh is right i hope they rate rate rate then fire in the stretch as mikey stated  716k earnings  is enough to get in big dance now its time to teach him another way of running his great stretch kick should make rating a bit easier then it would be for most horses who love the lead

SMARTS....didn't even think of the eligible earnings when I posted the $716K...dumb on my part, and a great point by you. Let's see what they do with this, as it is likely his last before May 1....

Also to your point, probably another reason they didn't put him in the Wood.

Seems you haven't checked the results, big shot

Chalker Alert:  Rule to win. 

Ex:  7 / 4,5,9,11

Tri: 7 / 4,5,9,11 / 4,5,9,11

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOA WHAT A FINISH!

So what did we learn from this?

8-4-7-2 Finish

20-1 over 25-1

Great race too bad I wasn't able to bet on the race.  I realized that I had Gulfstream in my Santa Anita form and looked after the race. 

I am not a result player folks because anybody can pick the winner after the race.  But #8 should have never been that kind of price.

I really didn't like Rule too much but he has to be low odds.  I just don't like the Delta Downs races too much.  However, let's look at Ice Box.  4 race back he pressed Rule and wasn't able to win because he isn't a speed horse.  In his latest he was off slowly.  Could of easily been played.  Also #4 lost 1/2 lenght to ice Box 2 back.

Not a result player at all...but could have easily had the exacta.

But very nice race.

watched the replays.....I have no idea why Rule was sent out the way he went.. Pretty decent fractions, but hte pressure in the last half was immense. I don't think anyone expected PULSION to press that hard so early, and that helped kill Rule. Hate to say it, but I don't think this guy can go 1-1/4 after seeing this, unless they can come up with another plan. Too bad.

Radiohead was slow out of the gate, then Kent had him 5 wide, then he got sideways and was spent when it was time to get to work. I would have love to see him out of a better post, and I still believe he has potential....if they choose to keep him on the dirt.

ICE BOX....you have to give it to Nick. Is there a better big-race trainer than him? Now that's what a closer does, and this guy's win was no fluke.

Pleasant Prince is in form.....beware of him, if they choose to go to Kentucky. I need to see it again, as I am not sure he had a little trouble at the end.

Not sure what to make of Lentenor, but he hung in there.

KERV....Let's keep an eye on Miner's Reserve. I really think he is being pointed to the Belmont. So after all, it was Ice Box, also owned by LaPenta,  that Nick goosed here?

RE: Your comment on Rule....I cannot argue with you. I just don't understand why they didn't try to rate him. I am going to look at the replay again and try to figure out what the heck went on.