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Preakness Picks
14 horse race. Best thing to do is pare it down to 8 horses and play from there. So let's eliminate first:
2) Norman Asbjornson
Not real breeding for quality or distance, but does have the nice Gotham trip. Problem is it is predicated on beating Tobey's Corner, who we have no idea how good he actually is. I'll pass and let him beat me.
5) Shackleford
He will be a 3rd or 4th betting choice. His problem is he won't have aything close to the trips he had in Florida and Kentucky. The pace will be much faster. I could see him on deep tickets, but can't see the pace scenario favorable to him.
7) Midnight Interlude
Throw out his SA Derby win and he is the longest shot on the board. No one has come from the race to do anything since.
12) Isn't He Perfect
Horse has a maiden claim and an allowance win with a 88 beyer. The fact that he came within 4 lengths of a sick Uncle Mo in the Wood doesn't put him on my tickets.
14) Mr. Commons
Another horse that exists the SA Derby. Decent beyers but not at route races, rather sprints. No breeding for distance and post make him non plays for me.
Playable horses:
1) Astrology
7/7 in the money. Tough post but no reason to think he cannot get a spot at the rail in the top 6 and be part of exotics. Great breeding (AP Indy, Seattle Slew) and distance is no issue.
3) King Congie
This is a tough one. There is a sentimental reason to play him, but nothing to suggest that he can go this distance on dirt. I will have him for 3rd and 4th on longer exotics.
4) Flashpoint
Distance is a huge issue but my thought is he grabs the front. What I like about him is the fact that finished fourth in a packed Florida Derby field.
6) Sway Away
Wise guy choice. I actually don't love him but am impressed with the fact that he ran so well in the Ark Derby, has great breeding, and awesome beyers.
8) Dance City
Another wise guy choice based on his performances in the Ark. Derby. He will be right up front. He does show an ability to go backwords at 1 1/8 so you have to imagine that the extra furlong here is going to be a factor should he be up front.
9) Macho Macho Man
Likely Drew's choice in honor of his hero. 9 starts, 6 graded races, only out of the money once (lost a shoe) and his beyers keep getting better and better. Win contender.
10) Dialed In
Let me preface this. I HATE this horse. I hate his style. Deep closers need pure luck, fast pace, and little traffic. But, 1) he's racing for 5.5 million, 2) he will get the fast pace, 3) he is a very fast horse. His last half mile at the Derby was as fast as Secretariat. Yes, he crawled, but doesn't matter when you can go that fast, you have a chance. Win contender.
11) Animal Kingdom
This is tough. I would love to see a horse go for the TC and he could do it. Awesome distance breeding. But that kind of horse has traditionally struggled at the Preakness. I see a little Street Sense in him. I will play him only slightly on top, but think he will be on the tickets.
13) Concealed Identity
Local horses sometimes suprise here. He has breeding and track experience. I'll play him low on my tickets.
14 horse race. Best thing to do is pare it down to 8 horses and play from there. So let's eliminate first:
2) Norman Asbjornson
Not real breeding for quality or distance, but does have the nice Gotham trip. Problem is it is predicated on beating Tobey's Corner, who we have no idea how good he actually is. I'll pass and let him beat me.
5) Shackleford
He will be a 3rd or 4th betting choice. His problem is he won't have aything close to the trips he had in Florida and Kentucky. The pace will be much faster. I could see him on deep tickets, but can't see the pace scenario favorable to him.
7) Midnight Interlude
Throw out his SA Derby win and he is the longest shot on the board. No one has come from the race to do anything since.
12) Isn't He Perfect
Horse has a maiden claim and an allowance win with a 88 beyer. The fact that he came within 4 lengths of a sick Uncle Mo in the Wood doesn't put him on my tickets.
14) Mr. Commons
Another horse that exists the SA Derby. Decent beyers but not at route races, rather sprints. No breeding for distance and post make him non plays for me.
Playable horses:
1) Astrology
7/7 in the money. Tough post but no reason to think he cannot get a spot at the rail in the top 6 and be part of exotics. Great breeding (AP Indy, Seattle Slew) and distance is no issue.
3) King Congie
This is a tough one. There is a sentimental reason to play him, but nothing to suggest that he can go this distance on dirt. I will have him for 3rd and 4th on longer exotics.
4) Flashpoint
Distance is a huge issue but my thought is he grabs the front. What I like about him is the fact that finished fourth in a packed Florida Derby field.
6) Sway Away
Wise guy choice. I actually don't love him but am impressed with the fact that he ran so well in the Ark Derby, has great breeding, and awesome beyers.
8) Dance City
Another wise guy choice based on his performances in the Ark. Derby. He will be right up front. He does show an ability to go backwords at 1 1/8 so you have to imagine that the extra furlong here is going to be a factor should he be up front.
9) Macho Macho Man
Likely Drew's choice in honor of his hero. 9 starts, 6 graded races, only out of the money once (lost a shoe) and his beyers keep getting better and better. Win contender.
10) Dialed In
Let me preface this. I HATE this horse. I hate his style. Deep closers need pure luck, fast pace, and little traffic. But, 1) he's racing for 5.5 million, 2) he will get the fast pace, 3) he is a very fast horse. His last half mile at the Derby was as fast as Secretariat. Yes, he crawled, but doesn't matter when you can go that fast, you have a chance. Win contender.
11) Animal Kingdom
This is tough. I would love to see a horse go for the TC and he could do it. Awesome distance breeding. But that kind of horse has traditionally struggled at the Preakness. I see a little Street Sense in him. I will play him only slightly on top, but think he will be on the tickets.
13) Concealed Identity
Local horses sometimes suprise here. He has breeding and track experience. I'll play him low on my tickets.
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