Preakness 144 Analysis and Picks

Time to move on from controversial Kentucky Derby 145 to Preakness 144.

The one thing I learned from handicapping this race and watching the replay of the Kentucky Derby is that some of those who finished in the Derby, a good distance back of the finishers, ran much better races than their final finish position indicated. 

The Game of Thrones battle scene upfront, the cavalry charge in the last two furlongs, the mud splashing in the faces of the horses in the rear, the slowdown of some around the slippery turns, plus the Maximum Security debacle, caused havoc to almost everyone in back of the wall of 6 or 7 near or just behind the leaders.

I think this could be one of the speediest Preakness Stakes in a while with a so many vying for the lead in the early going. Track should be dry and fast. While I thought the Kentucky Derby was a relatively wide-open affair, I think this one might be even more contentious with at least eight of the 13 entrants having a fair shot at the victory.

#1 War of Will…….He draws the one post again, although he was moved over to the two hole in the Derby from where Gaffalione successfully steered the son of the great War Front into a contending position. Placing 7^th after the DQ, some argue that he would have won the Derby had it not been for the infraction. I’m not too sure about that assumption. He had a blowout workout on April 27 at CD leading to the big race with his performance in Louisville a very good one. All of this tells me that his La. Derby is a toss and that the colt is on the rise. Looking at his form in 1-1/16 miles and mile and 70 races, the 1-3/16 miles distance might be best suited to him. With so many TC contenders the past few years, Mark Casse is the blind squirrel that needs to find the acorn, and this just might be the day. A solid contender at 4-1 ML. (7-1 as of Friday night, 7 pm Eastern). Has winner written all over him?

#2 Bourbon War…….The Tapit colt hasn’t run since the Florida Derby (March 30) where he was pretty much shut out by the three finishers, Max, Bode and Code of Honor. Bourbon War finished 4^th in that race 7-1/2 back never making a decent at-the-end run at the leaders. This is another one who might be very well-suited to the distance and could be sitting pretty high. With Irad Ortiz Jr. straddling the leather, his work coming into this for trainer Mark Hennig has been solid. Note: The colt gets blinkers for the first time with the trainer 17 percent wins with the device on first-timers. Bourbon has a lifetime high Beyer of 93 struck in the Fountain of Youth regressing to a 90 in the FLA Derby. Expect a bump up as I believe he contends, for at least some, at a juicy 12-1 on the ML (drifted down to 9-2 as of Friday night). However, he might need to stay a little closer to the lead than in past races with as many as a 5 or 6 being shot from guns out of the gate.

#3 Warrior’s Charge…….The Florida-bred Munnings colt, supplemented for $150K to get into this race, can get out of the gate as well as any of them having wired in his last two, including earning a spicy 97 Beyer in his last win in a $75K O/C at Oak Lawn. However, this bunch is a whole lot better, with this, his first try at a graded stakes. Sharpie Brad Cox, a finalist for the 2018 Trainer of the Year, knows how to get the youngsters ready. Warrior’s Charge has done it all well with a lifetime record of 5/2-0-3 with his two wins coming at Oak Lawn. Outstanding work for this with Cox 27 percent wins off layoff. Cox and pilot Castellano, a two-time Preakness winner, are 24 percent wins as a duo since 2018. Warrior is expected to get out quickly and either take the lead or be right there. While I don’t think he can win it, one scenario says, if he gets out and lulls them to sleep, it is a definite could-be. The other scenario says that if he doesn’t’ flame out, a taste is very possible. Along with another Cox-trained colt, Owendale, this is the conditioner’s first foray into a Triple Crown race. 16-1 odds as of Friday night. NOTE: Cox won with Covfefe in the Miss Preakness on Friday with Castellano in 1:07.7, a track record. Castellano won five consecutive races (four stakes wins) on Friday, including the Black Eyed Susan and Hill Top in addition to the Miss Preakness and Skipat.

#4 Improbable……….Draws well for this and gets Mike Smith to handle the chores on the Kentucky Derby fave. Baffert is tied with 19^th Century trainer R. Wyndham Walden for most Preakness wins with seven. The 5-2 ML favorite (still 5-2 as of Friday night), Improbable, gives the grey-haired one a good chance, a race the trainer won last year with Justify ridden by Smith. Improbable ran a decent 5^th (placed 4^th thru DQ) in the Derby, but, as track notes stated, he “Covered up, idled, mildly,” with some of this caused by being cut-off and running into traffic. I wonder if he had a hard time with the distance, too. At this distance, although it still might be a few yards too long for him, and with Smith taking the grip, I don’t think it happens this time. The pace should be such that the City Zip colt will stay close to the lead and remain interested throughout. His style is near the lead and I think the field will dictate with Improbable following along. The question I have is can he keep it up in the last 100 yards or so with, perhaps, two or three in a match race? His 96 Beyer in L’vlle was Improbable’s second best (he’s hit 96 twice) with all signs pointing to triple digits in The Preakness. Improbable needs to return to his exact form as a two-year old, as he has yet to win a race at the age of three. Big contender for win as the track is expected to be dry and fast, much to his liking.

#5 Owendale……..The fifth favorite in the race at 10-1 ML (9-1 as of Friday night), the son of Into Mischief attacks his sixth track in this, his eighth career race. The second of Brad Cox’s entrants, The Preakness is Owendale’s third graded stakes, which includes a win in his last one, the G-III Lexington, and an 8^th in the Risen Star. Earning a 98 Beyer, a lifetime high, and beating Anothertwistafate and Sueno in the Lexington, shows promise for the colt in this race. Geroux takes the mount again with him and Cox 28 percent in wins in 33 starts since 2018. I’m not sure the colt gets the outside path to rally for win in this field, as he did at Lex, but Geroux is a solid tactician who will play the field like a maestro before making his move. A sharp work for this. I think the lad is ready with the possibility of a slice.

#6 Market King……….A bit of a dawdler, the horse has talent, but, I think, mostly for competing in low level stakes and Allowances. That said, he finished 3^rd in the Risen Star to Omaha Beach and Game Winner, 8-1/2 behind the second placer, grabbing an 83 Beyer, a lifetime high. This performance was followed by a massive dud in the Blue Grass nearly 38 lengths behind the winner. However, D. Wayne Lukas has made a habit of taking horses who are not as good as others in high profile situations, only for them to get better as they mature. I’m sure Wayne is in it to win it, but this race will serve as a nice training ground for another Into Mischief. While I think the distance suits him, he has little shot at 30-1 on the ML (now 25-1). Jon Court on top.

#7 Alwaysmining……The Maryland-bred is getting a ton of local buzz, much of it because his trainer, Kelly Rubley, was a middle school teacher who has earned two master’s degree, but has chosen horse training as a profession. The gelding would be the first MD-bred to win this since 1983 when Deputed Testamony won. For the record, eleven Maryland horses have won the Preakness with 11 winning Triple Crown races. History aside, Alwaysmining is out of Stay Thirsty, whose Dad, Bernadini, won it in 2006 with Javier Castellano riding. This will be the colt’s 13^th career race with all, but three races, at Laurel. He debuted at Churchill and raced once at Keeneland. Alwaysmining has done fine work winning his seven of 12 races with a third place finish. Wins include a whopping 11-1/2F win last out in the Tesio. The boy has reeled off six wins in a row with capable veteran Daniel Centeno aboard. The six wins have been for a total of nearly 35 lengths. Centeno is 28% wins this year, 40% with Rubley in 15 races since 2018. This is his first graded stakes and, at 8-1 ML, the boy could be the second coming or Oliver’s Twist, a  local who paid a big $16.80 and $6.40 after finishing second to Timber Country in the ’95 Preakness. A must consider for a bit under at 8-1 ML. Note: He has beaten win Win Win Win and Grey Magician. Now 5-1 odds as of Friday night.

#8 Signalman….…I have liked this guy from the start of his career. As a two-year old, he won the Kentucky JC, finished 3^rd in the G-I BC Juve to Game Winner and 2^nd in the G-I BC Futurity. Not so lucky at three, his second place finish in the Blue Grass to Vekoma and Win, Win, Win was a solid effort coming after a 7^th in the Fountain of Youth. If the son of General Quarters, a fine TC campaigner during his time, is going to move forward, today is the day. There is plenty of room for improvement. Signalman’s rider, Brian Hernandez, will need his best skills as a tactician, as this guy is pretty slow compared to most of these with a career Beyer high of 88, which came in the Blue Grass and, previously, in the BC Juve. He will be coming late, and if the boy has a shot, it’s because those duking it out up front are napping. At 30-1 (now 18-1) on the ML, you might want to take a flyer in the last parts of your wheels. Trainer McPeek and jockey are 16% since 2018.

#9 Bodexpress………Sure, he finished in thirteenth place, after DQ, in the Kentucky Derby, but he looked like his Daddy, Bodemeister, for a portion of the race vaulting near the lead and helping to force the early pace. Coming out of the 20 post, he was used early and, then, taken up as Landeros needed to get him out. Yes, Bodexpress is still a maiden, but he gets John Velazquez and that counts for a lot. While the horse has yet to win a race, he still hasn’t run his race and this is a very good distance for him. Keep in mind, he did finish second to Maximum Security earning a Beyer high of 96 in the FLA Derby, a race before the KY Derby. I think at this distance, and on this day, he does well. I will put him in my wheels and play for win as a back-up winner. 20-1 (17-1 as of Friday night) on the ML. Upset in the wind?

#10 Everfast……..This is Everfast’s eighth graded stakes. In his previous seven graded stakes, the son of Take Charge Indy has lost by over 100 lengths. Yes….one hundred.  Not good. Unless Dale Romans knows something, I cannot understand why he keeps running this horse into major grades. Grant it, Everfast finished second at 128-1 in the Holy Bull to once TC contender Harvey Wallbanger, but that field, now, looks like an Allowance on the undercard. Joel Rosario and Dale Romans are great at what they do, but a win here would be the shock of shocks at 50-1 ML. Now down to 30-1.

#11 Laughing Fox……..Laughing Fox is Steve Asmussen’s boy for this one coming off a win in the Oak Lawn Invitational where he earned a 91 Beyer speed figure, a career high. Jockey Santana and trainer are fresh off a win in the Pimlico Special on Tenfold on Friday, so they are carrying some momentum going into this. Laughing Fox’s fourth place finish in the Arkansas Derby was his best graded stakes finish in two graded efforts. He looks to have the speed to run with most of these, but a small slice appears to be the best he can do with his closing kick the boy’s ace in the hole. Steve and Ricky are a 40 percent in wins (4 of 10) at Pimlico, before Friday, and 23 percent wins since 2018. The Union Rags colt is 20-1 ML (now 23-1).

#12 Anothertwistafate……….Oh, what might have been for this guy had he been able to grab just a few more points toward entrance into the Kentucky Derby. I would love to have seen him compete in that race. A $360,000 OBS seller, he has a lifetime record of 6/3-2-0. He lost by 1-3/4L to Owendale in the G-III Lexington and by a neck to Cutting Humor in the G-III Sunland Derby. He won the El Camino Real, a minor prep race. I think he was beginning to peak before the Lexington, but had racing trouble early, which might have prevented his winning the race. Good news is that he get Jose Ortiz and, out of Scat Daddy, he’ll get the distance and should be close to the lead despite the difficult post. Trainer Blaine Wright isn’t well known, but he is 16% in wins this year. Looked awfully good on the track this week. I think he runs well and will be a big part of the process. Question for backers is, “Can he win on dirt?” His three lifetime wins are on synth. 10-1 as of Friday night.

My picks:

#1 War of Will $50 to win and $100 to place

Back-up win bets:

#4 improbable $30 to win $60 to place and #9 Bodexpress $20 to win and $40 to place

$20 exacta straight: 1-4

$10 exacta straight: 1-9

$6 exacta wheel: 1 with 2, 3, 7, 12

$3 tri whl: 1 with 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12 with 2,3,4,7, 9,11,12,13

$1 tri whl: 4,9/1,2, 3, 4, 7, 9,12/1,2,4,7,9,11,12,13