Some people are throwing their hands in the air about this race because of the relatively short field (now 7 horses; maybe another one or two scratched—SEE MIDNIGHT’S Preakness notes). The possibility of a 3-5 fave (Mage), especially since First Mission is out, a real contender in National Treasure with some players skeptical of this being just his second race outside of California, and a few that look like they couldn’t handle the undercard, let alone the 2 leg of the Triple Crown.
Here we go.
1) National Treasure……Let’s start with Bafffffffffert, a now scary verb among those who no longer trust him. He trains this outstanding, but somewhat underachieving son of the great Quality Road. Transferred back to the Baffert barn from Tim Yakteem, can the grey-haired guru get the lad on track? He hasn’t won since his maiden finishing with a bland record since with two 3 place finishes, a fourth and a second. Yawn me. However, take note that his fourth place finish in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, was just 2-3/4L behind winner Practical Move, a horse that might have gone off as the second or third fave in the Ky. Derby to Forte (had he run). The SA Derby was a knife fight and I will give National Treasure points for sticking with the winner, as well as Mandarin Hero and Skinner, until the end. I’m going to say he improved in the SA after earning his second best Beyer. Can he win? Yes he can, especially if Mage has his “normal” problems out of the gate and needs to run 2 miles to get 1-3/16. Keys: Get out quick, take the lead at once staving off, perhaps, Coffewithchris, then run and hide with Mage, Red Route One and Blazing Sevens likely breathing down his neck. Treasure’s only other race outside of California was the BC Juve at Keeneland where he ran a formidable third to Forte. Blinkers on, a tactic in which the trainer has been a winner 17% of the time. Johnny V rides.
2) Chase the Chaos……50-1, now at 7-1 live odds as of 11.00am Eastern Time. Mmmmmmmm? The Mine That Bird crowd must have chartered a flight to Baltimore. He’s done his best work on synthetic and turf with his lone dirt run a mess finishing nearly 17L out in the San Felipe. Some of us, including ME, diluted the chances of Two Phil’s in the Ky. Derby because he seemed to be more of a synth horse than a dirt horse. I won’t make that mistake again, but I just can’t see Chaos winning after losing his last two by a combined 24L. A bit of a curious switch from Ayuso to Russell in the leather for trainer Mogers, but the record stands, so the change is warranted. His second venture into graded stakes. I ain’t feelin’ it for this guy, not even for a piece.
thank you
Hot Forum Topics
