Rebel Stakes

Best betting race of the season guys.

doc, the card has been moved to Sunday because of expected weather issues.

Some of these have raced against each other before. In fact in the Southwestern on 1/25, here was the tri

#11 Speed King went gate to wire @ 14-1

#3 Sandman closed from last to grab 2nd @ 6-1

#13 Tiztastic had all kinds of traffic issues grabbing 3rd @ 16-1

The 50 cent tri paid $356.90

Hey pal, how are you?

yes, I’ve been keeping tabs on these. Got a little crazy playing Derby futures this year. I have decent futures on Speed king Coal battle, and Hypnus.. if you can, please do me a favor and watch the replay of Hypnus win at Fairgrounds in the Slop a while back.. Didn’t beat too much although the fav in there came back to win it’s next race. Thanks Midnight.

Coal Battle  ml 10-1  6 races 4 wins

Has won on both dirt and turf. Latest wins in the springboard mile and Smarty Jones. Has won in front all the way and off the pace. Really like this horse but not so much in here.

Copied from horseracing Nation.

The rail is really bad in 1 1/16-mile races

with at least 12 runners the past 10 years--153-10-15-15 (6.5% win, 26.1% ItM) w/ a -33%

Impact & a -54% ROI. In races with at least 13 starters, posts 1-2 are 13-0-5-1. Coal Battle drew the Rebel rail.

Just watched the replay.

He broke well & Brian Hernandez got him over to the rail from post #6. He looked relaxed & started passing colts that were backing up into the final turn. Hernandez took him to the outside & started to lug in just a little bit until he was tapped (I saw at least one tap but there might have been two) & got straightened out down the lane winning going away. Couple of comments..

Love the Hernandez/McPeek combination

He obviously enjoyed the slop

He went unnoticed by the betting public & maybe by the owners as well going off @ 16-1. Maybe they didn't know what they had since this is his only race so far. 

He did beat Cromwell (a colt with the Cherie DeVaux barn) who has been well bet in all 4 tries but remains a Maiden.

He was pulling away from the field with no chance of getting caught & showed a real nice closing style which was impressive. He has 2 nice works since this race.

Those are all positives. My concerns are..

He won in a 9 horse field & will have to deal with 5 more Sunday coming from post #4 which leaves 10 from his outside. So traffic issues are always a concern.

I'm not sure about the quality he beat & he is definitely stepping up here. 

He got away with the luggin in issue & was much the best. I imagine McPeek saw that bad habit & has worked to correct it.

That's all I got on Hypnus

Regarding Derby Futures, I have one play so far & it's Burnham Square @ 15-1. Loved him winning the Holy Bull @ Gulfstream but what really impressed me was his race on the Churchill surface on November 30th in race 12 when he closed from way back to run 3rd missing by less than a length @ 18-1. He's won 2 in a row including the Holy Bull. Ian Wilkes may have a real nce colt here.

Thanks for looking at that race. yes, he did have two very nice works since that win. like the connections. Can they do it two years in a row? Well, it happened in the Daytona 500 last week. Lol. Also like the breeding. You have a grade 1 winner on the damn side and you can’t knock into mischief on the other. Trainer excels with horses going into their second race overall. I will include him in my tri’s with an across-the-board bet. Still looking at others. I did see Burnham Square at the top of a few lists. Will take a look. 

Just took a quick at the Rebel & #9 Smoken Wicked caught my eye & is in good form winning 3 in a row easily. BUT...

He's won @ 6F & won by 8 going 7F but is stretching out to 1 1/16. CJ Hernandez has rode him in his last 3 wins but is getting bumped by Dallas Stewart so that Gafflione picks up the mount which has to suck for Hernandez.  

#1 Coal Battle has won over this Oaklawn surface & at this distance. He's also won 3 in a row & banked almost a half million. He also beat #11 Speed King by a half length @ Remington in OKC. 

Baffert & McCarthy have both shipped a colt from Cali but I have a West Coast shipper prejudice having lost on too many of these type shippers. Don't blame them trying to get a piece of this 1.25 million purse. McCarthy's #10 Bullard has already beaten Baffert's #5 Madaket Road by 4 lengths back in November @ Del Mar. Add ?Irad to Baffert's colt insured he'll get heavily played.  

#2 Admiral Dennis has been the favorite in all 4 of his races winning 2 of them for Brad Cox.

Thanks to doc, the more I think about #4 Hypnus race in the slop, the more I like him. My biggest concern was a possible traffic issue but Brian Hernandez got him to relax in his first try & he won easily. He's 10-1, so I'll be interested in seeing the 1st flash on the tote.

Speaking of traffic, #13 Tiztastic has been bumped around in his last 3. Asmussen takes his kid off this one & gives the mount to Jose Ortiz.