Risen Star--Analysis and Picks

Risen Star:  50 Derby points to the winner and 20 points to the second placer in a somewhat wide-open affair....

One of my favorite early preps brings together a pretty decent field, including one I’ve been semi-touting, Mo Tom, the Uncle Mo offspring for Tom Amoss.

Others of note include Gun Runner with the new darling of jocks, Frenchie Geroux, in the saddle for Asmussen; loomer Tom’s Ready for Dallas Stewart, who gets Johnny V to handle the chores, and yet another solid Mark Casse 3-year old, Airoforce, under the direction of owner John Oxley.

The other intriguing one here for me is 30-1 shot Laoban, another Uncle Mo product, who has little excuse for his semi-lackluster career.  If he gets right, look out; one that should be in your underlays.

#2 Mo Tom……Amoss is a real sharpie and the way he has brought this colt along is stellar. His work coming in is steady and calculated and his win in the LeComte showed that the horse “gets it” after hitting the gate and getting bumped early to come back to win by nearly 2L. Jockey Lanerie has found new life the past few years and he nails it at FG year after year.  3-1 ML is deserved.

Note that MT has been beaten by Airoforce with Tom’s Ready and Uncle Walter, both in this race, coming underneath him in the LeComte.

#10 Airoforce…..Not crazy about the post, but with much of the field settling upfront early and master of lateness, Leparoux, keeping the animal off the pace, this race sets up nicely for this son of the outstanding Colonel John. He is making his 3-year old debut with the work for this is off the hook. We could see a fight to the finish with this guy and 3 or 4 others. FACTOID: Casse is an abominable 2 of 45 off 61-180 days in graded stakes.

#6 Gun Runner…..Jockey Geroux has become a master tactician, and he’ll need that today as Gun Runner seems to be a half-step behind the two best. But, for me, that’s why he should be considered because Geroux has a knack for lulling competitors to sleep on the front end. He hasn’t taken the definitive lead in any of his starts from the get-go, but I have a feeling you might see this boy getting out early. His 3-year old debut, and don’t let the work fool you. He’s not blowing it up in the morning, but Asmussen has his methods and I have no reason to think it won’t work today. A real shot for this at a decent price, if he gets a pace on or near the lead. FACTOID: Asmussen is 4 of 7 wins in 3-year old restricted stakes 61-180 days.

#7 Its All Relevant…… 15-1 ML shouldn’t scare you off. This Hard Spun guy was a $360K seller at Keeneland and he’s coming off an 8-1/2F win at GP.  This could be his initiation into the big-time today with Jersey Joe Bravo taking the puddle-jumper to ride for Dominick Shettino.

#8 Toms Ready…..Dallas Stewart is one of the old school trainers who always has a B- student in the Triple Crown fray. This one fits the bill as TR, out of prolific More Than Ready, has already raced 7 times, including a second to Mo Tom in the LeComte where he got run down. His training coming into this is boffo and I expect a very nice effort at a decent price of 8-1 on the ML.

#12 Uncle Walter…..I don’t think today is the day, but Mike Maker switches back to Javier Castellano and that’s a positive. Yet another out of Uncle Mo, I think the slight up-stretch might help him a bit, but I just don’t think he can get past the heavy closers at the end.

#9 Laoban…..It’s Uncle Mo Day at the Farigrounds as this son of UM is a real puzzler for me. The trainer, Guillot, isn’t exactly the second coming of Shug, and that might be part of the problem. Nonetheless, Laoban, still a maiden, does compete having finished third in the Sham to Derby preppers Collected and Let’s Meet in Rio. Mena grabs the leather, a plus for me. He might get scratched from this, but if not, take a look-see for some.

#13 Candy My Boy…..Being from Chicago, I cannot dismiss Illinois local sharpster, trainer Roger Bruggermann, who has, amazingly, won a Breeders Cup races with Illinois bred Work All Week and  some huge stakes with The Pizza Man. The trainer is 30% wins so far this year with rider Shaun Bridgmohan at 18% wins and a hero at this track. He will likely go for the lead and hopes to catch the rest of them snoozing at the end.

My picks:

This is a toughie, but I like 3 on top of my wheels:

#2 Mo Tom, #6 Gun Runner and #7 Its All Relevant

If I had to pick a winner, I will go with #2 Mo Tom….likely chalk.

$12 exacta box: 2,6,7

$6 exacta wheel: 2,6,7/10

$4 exacta wheel: 2,6,7/9,13

$3 tri wheel: 2,6,7/2,6,7,10/2,6,7,10,12

$1 tri wheel: 2,6,7/2,6,7,9,10,13/2,6,7 8, 9,10, 12, 13

GL to all!

BULLETIN;

#3 DOLPHUS AND #9 LAOBAN SCRATCHED

Revised picks:

$12 exacta box: 2,6,7

$6 exacta wheel: 2,6,7/10

$4 exacta wheel: 2,6,7/12,13

$3 tri wheel: 2,6,7/2,6,7,10/2,6,7,10,12

$1 tri wheel: 2,6,7/2,6,7, 10,12, 13/2,6,7 8,10, 12, 13

GL to all

finishes 6 (Gun Runner), 40-1 shot #5  Forevemo, #2 Mo Tom, who got Royally Screwed by the dead-on-his-feet 4 horse as he was making his move off the rail in the stretch, and #13, Candy My Boy, who ran great.

6-5-2-13

Quote Originally Posted by Rob2772:

Hey Mikey, I had the 5 across but did not use your 6 on top.    

Payouts were very nice.   

I saw that on your other post. Congrats. That was not a horse that was totally obvious, but you nailed it.