The fields for today’s three prep races are like NBA All-star weekend with the Futures, Three-point Contest and Slam dunk all in one. I like the Santa Anita Derby field, but I just wish Nyquist was in it rather than opting for the FLA Derby. In the long-run, however, going to Gulfstream was probably the best decision Doug could have made.
The average Beyer for the winner of this race is 103 and none of them have done it. Possible wet track today?
#2 Exaggerator……Oh so close, but no Cigar, he seems to have been relegated to a bit of an underling status regressing some last time from a 98 to a 96…..not fodder for a 103, on paper, but improvement might do it. He ran into the buzz saw called Danzig Candy in the San Felipe, got bumped, then drifted to finish third to the winner and Mor Spirit. Kent D rides for his trainer-bro Keith. Today is when he needs the breakout, if he’s going anywhere. Also needs to overcome the past trouble.
#3 Danzig Candy….I nearly swallowed my ulcer medication watching this guy’s performance in the San Felipe. Holy Schnikees! His steady improve and 100 Beyer last out tees it up for him to win at 9-5 ML, but the boy will be challenged by other early run in the form of Iron Rob and Smoky Image, in all likelihood. We will find out how good he is today with the stretch to 1-1/8 miles.
#4 Mor Spirit…..I was sooooo disappointed in his San Felipe despite the great job by Danzing Candy. Notes say, he “Pulled, steady at 6-1/2,” which contributed to the loss. Even at that, he improved to a 97 Beyer, which sets him up for run here—assuming he stays whole down the track. Drf notes that, “he reminded you of Baffert’s Real Quiet.” Real Quiet is one of my all-time favorites. While I won’t dismiss Drf’s comment, comparing Mor Spirit to Real Quiet right now is like matching Mark Sanchez to Tom Brady. Gary Stevens will need to me much the man today, but I love the colt’s chances.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The fields for today’s three prep races are like NBA All-star weekend with the Futures, Three-point Contest and Slam dunk all in one. I like the Santa Anita Derby field, but I just wish Nyquist was in it rather than opting for the FLA Derby. In the long-run, however, going to Gulfstream was probably the best decision Doug could have made.
The average Beyer for the winner of this race is 103 and none of them have done it. Possible wet track today?
#2 Exaggerator……Oh so close, but no Cigar, he seems to have been relegated to a bit of an underling status regressing some last time from a 98 to a 96…..not fodder for a 103, on paper, but improvement might do it. He ran into the buzz saw called Danzig Candy in the San Felipe, got bumped, then drifted to finish third to the winner and Mor Spirit. Kent D rides for his trainer-bro Keith. Today is when he needs the breakout, if he’s going anywhere. Also needs to overcome the past trouble.
#3 Danzig Candy….I nearly swallowed my ulcer medication watching this guy’s performance in the San Felipe. Holy Schnikees! His steady improve and 100 Beyer last out tees it up for him to win at 9-5 ML, but the boy will be challenged by other early run in the form of Iron Rob and Smoky Image, in all likelihood. We will find out how good he is today with the stretch to 1-1/8 miles.
#4 Mor Spirit…..I was sooooo disappointed in his San Felipe despite the great job by Danzing Candy. Notes say, he “Pulled, steady at 6-1/2,” which contributed to the loss. Even at that, he improved to a 97 Beyer, which sets him up for run here—assuming he stays whole down the track. Drf notes that, “he reminded you of Baffert’s Real Quiet.” Real Quiet is one of my all-time favorites. While I won’t dismiss Drf’s comment, comparing Mor Spirit to Real Quiet right now is like matching Mark Sanchez to Tom Brady. Gary Stevens will need to me much the man today, but I love the colt’s chances.
#5 Smokey Image….How does a horse win his first 6 races in bold fashion, then lose by 18-3/4L? It happens, and I will toss. Just seems to me that his consistent Beyer’s in the 70s and 80s doesn’t fit with these. However, he will get out of the shoot, so we shall see what we shall see. Give Carla gaines credit as she know her stuff.
#6 Iron Rob…..Is that Smarty Jones’ Stu Elliot in the saddle? The sprinter is here to catch lightning in a bottle .....and to screw Danzing Candy out of the lead? Out of the same sire as DC, so he should be able to go at least ¾ of the way before the poop-out. Note #8 Rare Candy also out of Twirling Candy. Bet we’ll never see three Twirling Candy’s in one race again.
#10 Uncle Lino…..Not sure why I like this horse so much. Maybe it’s because he has real heart, but perhaps not big enough today. He’s hit the 90 mark twice with his only real bad effort in the San Felipe when he was bumped and weakened. Blinkers off and he should compete for some. Trainer is 1 for 22 with blinkers off.
My Picks:
#4 Mor Spirit…..The channeled Real Quiet wins today!
$16 exacta straight: 4-3
$8 exacta straight: 3-4
$4 exacta whl: 3,4/2
$8 tri whl: 4/3/2.10
$4 tri whl: 3/4/2,10
GL to all!
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#5 Smokey Image….How does a horse win his first 6 races in bold fashion, then lose by 18-3/4L? It happens, and I will toss. Just seems to me that his consistent Beyer’s in the 70s and 80s doesn’t fit with these. However, he will get out of the shoot, so we shall see what we shall see. Give Carla gaines credit as she know her stuff.
#6 Iron Rob…..Is that Smarty Jones’ Stu Elliot in the saddle? The sprinter is here to catch lightning in a bottle .....and to screw Danzing Candy out of the lead? Out of the same sire as DC, so he should be able to go at least ¾ of the way before the poop-out. Note #8 Rare Candy also out of Twirling Candy. Bet we’ll never see three Twirling Candy’s in one race again.
#10 Uncle Lino…..Not sure why I like this horse so much. Maybe it’s because he has real heart, but perhaps not big enough today. He’s hit the 90 mark twice with his only real bad effort in the San Felipe when he was bumped and weakened. Blinkers off and he should compete for some. Trainer is 1 for 22 with blinkers off.
My Picks:
#4 Mor Spirit…..The channeled Real Quiet wins today!
Well that was impressive. Ordinarily you might say the mud was this guys friend perhaps, but it appears hes for real. Most impressive win of the day for me including Song Bird. Never a big fan of playing horse from the west Coast come Derby Day but he does have credetials to warrant serious consideration. Wife already proclaims Exaggerator her Derby pick.
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Well that was impressive. Ordinarily you might say the mud was this guys friend perhaps, but it appears hes for real. Most impressive win of the day for me including Song Bird. Never a big fan of playing horse from the west Coast come Derby Day but he does have credetials to warrant serious consideration. Wife already proclaims Exaggerator her Derby pick.
Well that was impressive. Ordinarily you might say the mud was this guys friend perhaps, but it appears hes for real. Most impressive win of the day for me including Song Bird. Never a big fan of playing horse from the west Coast come Derby Day but he does have credetials to warrant serious consideration. Wife already proclaims Exaggerator her Derby pick.
She is going to be right my friend !!!
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Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:
Well that was impressive. Ordinarily you might say the mud was this guys friend perhaps, but it appears hes for real. Most impressive win of the day for me including Song Bird. Never a big fan of playing horse from the west Coast come Derby Day but he does have credetials to warrant serious consideration. Wife already proclaims Exaggerator her Derby pick.
IMO Exaggerator obviously loves the off track as did his sire, that was some move he made too! I mean that's a move that wins in Kentucky, problem is can he do it on a fast track? Plus he'll have a lot more traffic to negotiate.
I love Mor Spirit bet him in the last future at 11-1, thinking he would win the SA and be half that. My take on his race today was that he absolutely hated the going and the slop in his face yet he still kept on and finished well. Eskenderaya offspring are now 0-16 on wet tracks. My only worry is he may just be a one pace without that extra burst down the stretch.
Looking forward to conversations leading up to the Derby
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Nice write up Mikey as usual.
IMO Exaggerator obviously loves the off track as did his sire, that was some move he made too! I mean that's a move that wins in Kentucky, problem is can he do it on a fast track? Plus he'll have a lot more traffic to negotiate.
I love Mor Spirit bet him in the last future at 11-1, thinking he would win the SA and be half that. My take on his race today was that he absolutely hated the going and the slop in his face yet he still kept on and finished well. Eskenderaya offspring are now 0-16 on wet tracks. My only worry is he may just be a one pace without that extra burst down the stretch.
Looking forward to conversations leading up to the Derby
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