After a very successful Travers day, I'll be making my way up to Saratoga today (only couple hour drive upstate) so I did my homework for the whole card and might as well share it. I will mention that today's card is extremely tricky with many guessing game races and should be proceeded with caution. However, these are the types of cards that can have some great prices. Good luck to all!
Race 1: A really junky group of bottom level maidens here, and I'm definitely confused on where to go. In races like this, sometimes value is very high as many runners aren't physically capable of winning, but I cannot find a solid way to go here. It leaves me with the favorite SPECIAL RISK, who at least has a last out dirt effort against a horse that competed against much tougher starter allowance groups, and was passing some horses in his most recent turf effort. It seems most handicappers are trying to beat her, with COMMUNION MONEY and LIAM'S WORLD being trendy picks. They both do offer early foot and a win angle with both trainers having excellent turf/dirt numbers, but I'm skeptical. SPECIAL RISK is owned by Michael Dubb who has the favorite in race 3 also, and appears well meant today. They at one point thought enough to enter in a Grade 1 race, and as recent as early spring still thought enough to enter against winners as a maiden. I'll follow the tote for some clues but by process of elimination I land here.
6-9-2-7
Race 2: CALL PROVISION and TASIT are clearly the two horses to beat, and both expect to take money, particularly Chad's horse who finished ahead of TASIT in their last race. Both have upside, as CALL PROVISION is on his third start of the form cycle and didn't have the most ideal trip last out, and TASIT is a new gelding which should help his keen attitude he's displayed early on in races. The other potential option is ALTAR BOY, who got steadied at the start and was dead last with no real winning chance. I'm not sure what his winning distance is around two turns, and as much as I think he could have a tactical advantage and get first jump on the two favorites, it is really tough to trust something that hasn't been proved against tough rivals. There are a couple speed types signed on here, and while I'll admit I don't trust fractions being hot at all, the rail is pushed out 9ft which should control the speed bias there's been since they pushed them back in to 0ft and really make it a match race down the stretch in my opinion. I'll give TASIT top pick honors simply for the value he'll offer over CALL PROVISION, who looks to be a potential odds on favorite.
8-4-1a-5
EX BOX: 4,8
Race 3: Out of the common Aug7 race, I want STREET HEAT, and I'll also make that my top pick. This horse was very wide basically throughout in his first start since late May, and being wide on this 9f distance at Saratoga is death. He's fit enough to breeze twice since and gets the rail post this time around. Rudy and Dubb are so deadly with these low level claimers and Dubb is fighting for the owner title, so motivation is high against this really weak bunch. My outside the Aug7 race pick would be DUNK A DIN, and I do like to side with the horse in winning form over a more talented horse not in form. Check the pick 3 will pays before, Dubb will pound that pool if he's expected to run big and win.
1-4-2-6
**WIN 1 STREET HEAT**
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
After a very successful Travers day, I'll be making my way up to Saratoga today (only couple hour drive upstate) so I did my homework for the whole card and might as well share it. I will mention that today's card is extremely tricky with many guessing game races and should be proceeded with caution. However, these are the types of cards that can have some great prices. Good luck to all!
Race 1: A really junky group of bottom level maidens here, and I'm definitely confused on where to go. In races like this, sometimes value is very high as many runners aren't physically capable of winning, but I cannot find a solid way to go here. It leaves me with the favorite SPECIAL RISK, who at least has a last out dirt effort against a horse that competed against much tougher starter allowance groups, and was passing some horses in his most recent turf effort. It seems most handicappers are trying to beat her, with COMMUNION MONEY and LIAM'S WORLD being trendy picks. They both do offer early foot and a win angle with both trainers having excellent turf/dirt numbers, but I'm skeptical. SPECIAL RISK is owned by Michael Dubb who has the favorite in race 3 also, and appears well meant today. They at one point thought enough to enter in a Grade 1 race, and as recent as early spring still thought enough to enter against winners as a maiden. I'll follow the tote for some clues but by process of elimination I land here.
6-9-2-7
Race 2: CALL PROVISION and TASIT are clearly the two horses to beat, and both expect to take money, particularly Chad's horse who finished ahead of TASIT in their last race. Both have upside, as CALL PROVISION is on his third start of the form cycle and didn't have the most ideal trip last out, and TASIT is a new gelding which should help his keen attitude he's displayed early on in races. The other potential option is ALTAR BOY, who got steadied at the start and was dead last with no real winning chance. I'm not sure what his winning distance is around two turns, and as much as I think he could have a tactical advantage and get first jump on the two favorites, it is really tough to trust something that hasn't been proved against tough rivals. There are a couple speed types signed on here, and while I'll admit I don't trust fractions being hot at all, the rail is pushed out 9ft which should control the speed bias there's been since they pushed them back in to 0ft and really make it a match race down the stretch in my opinion. I'll give TASIT top pick honors simply for the value he'll offer over CALL PROVISION, who looks to be a potential odds on favorite.
8-4-1a-5
EX BOX: 4,8
Race 3: Out of the common Aug7 race, I want STREET HEAT, and I'll also make that my top pick. This horse was very wide basically throughout in his first start since late May, and being wide on this 9f distance at Saratoga is death. He's fit enough to breeze twice since and gets the rail post this time around. Rudy and Dubb are so deadly with these low level claimers and Dubb is fighting for the owner title, so motivation is high against this really weak bunch. My outside the Aug7 race pick would be DUNK A DIN, and I do like to side with the horse in winning form over a more talented horse not in form. Check the pick 3 will pays before, Dubb will pound that pool if he's expected to run big and win.
Race 4: If the 2 FOREIGN AFFAIR can break well she should be a big win threat, and she is my top pick at what should be a decent price. This filly spotted the field about 8 lengths in her first start as a 3yo on turf and did well to make up some ground and get with the field but that was it. Next out it was taken off turf and again she was slow to start, rushed up, and still really was game enought to run right to the wire with the winner who got a perfect trip. After that and really overall, you can make a case for many. I expect Paco to put EVERYTHINGS COPA in a good forward position if not on the lead early and put the horse in a situation where if good enough, she can win. MORE THAN A LEGEND is on her third start as a 4yo and adds blinkers for Kimmel who has gotten both his wins recently and is warming up. Chad is always a threat with Jose on TRANSACTION TAX dropping and trying turf for the first time, but I'm dubious of this horses ability. The 1a ETERNAL VOW can't be counted out dropping in first start for Pletcher on a private purchase from the retired Hushion barn. SUBIC BAY finished well two back off the layoff and faced a tough field last out. The drop and cutback could help her late kick 3rd start on form cycle.
2-1a-5-6
Race 5: If I'm taking anyone out of the Aug3 race, its AVERY MAEVE, who endured all of the speed challenges and was right there at the blanket finish. She was the only horse up on the pace who finished as the race totally collapsed late. This was also when the rails were pushed out and it seemed impossible to win on the front end in these turf sprints on the mellon. There's enough not to like with the favorite R LUCKY CHARM to try and beat, as she needs to prove to me those last couple figures are for real and hold up. Also, there seems to be enough speed in here where her preferred running style might not work out. The other way to go would be a new shooter, and my best choice is MISTY ON POINTE for Horacio DePaz, whom it seems sends out live runners almost every time. This horse finished with a ton of run in her first start as a 3yo at Laurel Park, and she is clearly well meant in this spot. TARQUINIA is the total wild card off the claim for Mike Maker getting back to a turn sprint and attracts Jose Ortiz. Use him defensively.
5-2-9-3
**WIN 5 AVERY MAEVE**
EXACTA: 5/2,9,10
backup exacta: 2/5,9,10
Race 6: Hate this race. Such a guessing game. SEAM looks to be a popular pick for Pletcher but why the long layoff? He's either got this as an ace in the hole for trainer title hopes or we'll see him dumped off for a tag early in the Belmont fall meet. Chad has two in here also, WISE STRIKE who should be right there when the dust settles, and STROMBOLIAN who attracts Javy over a 725k purchase GIFTED LADY who grabs Jose and adds blinkers. If I had to bet this race, I'd probably take an interesting stand here and key PRESUMPTUOUS in second, who is in nice form but I feel like one will end up being better.
3-4-2-6-8
small exacta: 3,4,6,8/2.
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Race 4: If the 2 FOREIGN AFFAIR can break well she should be a big win threat, and she is my top pick at what should be a decent price. This filly spotted the field about 8 lengths in her first start as a 3yo on turf and did well to make up some ground and get with the field but that was it. Next out it was taken off turf and again she was slow to start, rushed up, and still really was game enought to run right to the wire with the winner who got a perfect trip. After that and really overall, you can make a case for many. I expect Paco to put EVERYTHINGS COPA in a good forward position if not on the lead early and put the horse in a situation where if good enough, she can win. MORE THAN A LEGEND is on her third start as a 4yo and adds blinkers for Kimmel who has gotten both his wins recently and is warming up. Chad is always a threat with Jose on TRANSACTION TAX dropping and trying turf for the first time, but I'm dubious of this horses ability. The 1a ETERNAL VOW can't be counted out dropping in first start for Pletcher on a private purchase from the retired Hushion barn. SUBIC BAY finished well two back off the layoff and faced a tough field last out. The drop and cutback could help her late kick 3rd start on form cycle.
2-1a-5-6
Race 5: If I'm taking anyone out of the Aug3 race, its AVERY MAEVE, who endured all of the speed challenges and was right there at the blanket finish. She was the only horse up on the pace who finished as the race totally collapsed late. This was also when the rails were pushed out and it seemed impossible to win on the front end in these turf sprints on the mellon. There's enough not to like with the favorite R LUCKY CHARM to try and beat, as she needs to prove to me those last couple figures are for real and hold up. Also, there seems to be enough speed in here where her preferred running style might not work out. The other way to go would be a new shooter, and my best choice is MISTY ON POINTE for Horacio DePaz, whom it seems sends out live runners almost every time. This horse finished with a ton of run in her first start as a 3yo at Laurel Park, and she is clearly well meant in this spot. TARQUINIA is the total wild card off the claim for Mike Maker getting back to a turn sprint and attracts Jose Ortiz. Use him defensively.
5-2-9-3
**WIN 5 AVERY MAEVE**
EXACTA: 5/2,9,10
backup exacta: 2/5,9,10
Race 6: Hate this race. Such a guessing game. SEAM looks to be a popular pick for Pletcher but why the long layoff? He's either got this as an ace in the hole for trainer title hopes or we'll see him dumped off for a tag early in the Belmont fall meet. Chad has two in here also, WISE STRIKE who should be right there when the dust settles, and STROMBOLIAN who attracts Javy over a 725k purchase GIFTED LADY who grabs Jose and adds blinkers. If I had to bet this race, I'd probably take an interesting stand here and key PRESUMPTUOUS in second, who is in nice form but I feel like one will end up being better.
Race 7: I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those fields where Chad Brown just comes 1-2. The clear horse to beat and my top pick is DURABLE GOODS, who should be able to sit forwardly on the stretchout and be close enough to get the job done if improved, which I expect. DURABLE GOODS looks to be stakes quality for Chad, and I think this is a stepping stone race to exactly that. His two races have both been very impressive, has pedigree to relish this distance, and should simply be too good for this field. DOVECOTE and PALINODIE are the other two win candidates, the first being the other Chad entry for Juddmonte who is a big finisher that could enjoy the cutback, the latter PALINODIE a French bred Clement horse that looks very well meant off a layoff. PALINODIE looks to be a stakes quality filly that if ready to rock off the layoff could simply be the class. How I got there; MOANA looks to be searching here with a turf attempt after disappointing in big dirt races and I take that as a negative. SEAFIRE while being my big price play and will use underneath, is most likely a cut below the best here. FLOWER VALLEY never gets it done and will probably finish underneath with a favorable forward trip as usual. Maybe the cutback helps her finish but tough to trust outfinishing both Chads and Clement. TISBURY should be used underneath and in deep tickets simply for the fact she's firing fresh and looks to be training well into this. A big effort puts her right in the mix, but she will need a career effort to have a shot at beating the top talents. BARREL OF DREAMS looks to be the main speed and will need to break good to clear effectively from the outside, but holding everyone off to the wire seems unlikely. If the track is playing fast, definitely include underneath.
6-9-2-11
**WIN 6 DURABLE GOODS**
EXACTA: 6/2,9,11
Race 8: Let me start by saying MR CROW most likely will be the class of this race and win handily, but I can make a legitimate case why he may not win and why he definitely is a bad bet. First, he is coming off a 109 beyer with the next highest in the field being a 94 from PATTERN RECOGNITION and nobody else above 90, so he is probably gonna be in the 2/5-1/2 range at post time. But there is no way that 109 is coming back, and if he was that good why wouldn't they try him in a big race like Kiaren did putting Fayeq in the Travers. The second place finisher of last came back to run a 71, 11 points lower than the 82 he got for finishing bus lengths behind MR CROW, and Takaful, who beat PATTERN RECOGNITION (day after Mr Crow ran so very similar track conditions) and got a 105 figure for that came back to get a 94, also 11 points lower, while running huge to come second to Practical Joke in a Grade 1. So I'm a believer that those figures are very dressed up and stand no chance of being duplicated. Lastly, MR CROW (while I think he will relish the extra distance but nonetheless has to prove it) has to go first vs winners at a new distance as that huge odds on favorite. I will take a small shot against both of these popular choices with CAVIL. This is really the only one I trust to beat the Chad and Todd horses given Cavil's pedigree and connections. I understand every race besides his lone win has been bad, but its been against a serious group. He broke slowly after a 6 month layoff and rushed up to ultimately fade in his last, and if Jose can put him in a nice forward position after a clean break, maybe he can finally run the race his connections have clearly thought capable and win at a big price.
1-6-2-3
Race 9: Let me preface this and say these high quality, lightly raced horses running for the 2nd or 3rd time is by no means my strong suit, and I always look for prices in spots like this because of the extreme improvement horses are eligible to have. This race for a main event Grade 3 has a lot of guessing to do. What is particularly hard to do is identifying the horse(s) that's coming out of the strongest race. Logic would tell you it's the race where three different connections felt strong enough to enter here, which is the Aug5 race with TRUMPI, SEABHAC, and IRISH TERRITORY. All are definitely win candidates, but my pick out of that race has to be IRISH TERRITORY which will offer by far the best value. His debut was very green, steadying early, and then for some reason greenly losing contact with the field dropping way back to last before angling widest of all and finishing to me just as well as anyone in that race. Mott has given him two sharp works since, including a bullet 4f, and that might indicate a more forward placement and improved effort second time out. There's also the horses that pass the eye test, and those are UNTAMED DOMAIN and EVALUATOR. They both overcame troubled trips to gobble up their respective fields and draw away handily. Then there's the shippers from outside tracks, in which my pick of the litter would be Brad Cox's FORT WISE TREATY at a big price. So many ways to go and absolutely a spread race in multi's, but a stand needs to be made as only one can win and I'm gonna go with UNTAMED DOMAIN. I really like the way Motion and West Point have handled this 2yo colt and the way he finished on a hand ride was impressive. I just think he's gonna keep moving forward with each race. With the times and figs being very much up for debate in these races, I chose the eye test angle and UNTAMED over EVALUATOR because of Evaluator's race being against statebred company. I happen to think UNTAMED DOMAIN is a promising talent just scratching the surface, and I anticipate a big effort and another improvement.
8-9-6-11-5
Race 10: UNDER SUSPICION is the deserving favorite and very likely winner to me. She took big sharp money first out and appeared well meant, battling from the rail with 3-4 horses dueling for the lead. She kept running to the wire, angling out greenly late, but looked to benefit from the race. Now UNDER SUSPICION draws a favorable outside post and runs at a very difficult distance of 7f to win first out and has a giant advantage in here. Tom Morley looks to be the main threat to the Broman/Serpe favorite, having two in here including a firster SUNBLOCK who has been training steadily, and CLIMB THE LADDER who finished a distant secont to a much best winner early in the meet. Irad however hops off CLIMB THE LADDER to ride the 3/1 respected morning line SALTY SMILE for Rudy Rod, so if you're not singling in multi's this one is a must include.
9-6-7-3
**WIN 9 UNDER SUSPICION**
BEST BET is DURABLE GOODS in race 7.
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Race 7: I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those fields where Chad Brown just comes 1-2. The clear horse to beat and my top pick is DURABLE GOODS, who should be able to sit forwardly on the stretchout and be close enough to get the job done if improved, which I expect. DURABLE GOODS looks to be stakes quality for Chad, and I think this is a stepping stone race to exactly that. His two races have both been very impressive, has pedigree to relish this distance, and should simply be too good for this field. DOVECOTE and PALINODIE are the other two win candidates, the first being the other Chad entry for Juddmonte who is a big finisher that could enjoy the cutback, the latter PALINODIE a French bred Clement horse that looks very well meant off a layoff. PALINODIE looks to be a stakes quality filly that if ready to rock off the layoff could simply be the class. How I got there; MOANA looks to be searching here with a turf attempt after disappointing in big dirt races and I take that as a negative. SEAFIRE while being my big price play and will use underneath, is most likely a cut below the best here. FLOWER VALLEY never gets it done and will probably finish underneath with a favorable forward trip as usual. Maybe the cutback helps her finish but tough to trust outfinishing both Chads and Clement. TISBURY should be used underneath and in deep tickets simply for the fact she's firing fresh and looks to be training well into this. A big effort puts her right in the mix, but she will need a career effort to have a shot at beating the top talents. BARREL OF DREAMS looks to be the main speed and will need to break good to clear effectively from the outside, but holding everyone off to the wire seems unlikely. If the track is playing fast, definitely include underneath.
6-9-2-11
**WIN 6 DURABLE GOODS**
EXACTA: 6/2,9,11
Race 8: Let me start by saying MR CROW most likely will be the class of this race and win handily, but I can make a legitimate case why he may not win and why he definitely is a bad bet. First, he is coming off a 109 beyer with the next highest in the field being a 94 from PATTERN RECOGNITION and nobody else above 90, so he is probably gonna be in the 2/5-1/2 range at post time. But there is no way that 109 is coming back, and if he was that good why wouldn't they try him in a big race like Kiaren did putting Fayeq in the Travers. The second place finisher of last came back to run a 71, 11 points lower than the 82 he got for finishing bus lengths behind MR CROW, and Takaful, who beat PATTERN RECOGNITION (day after Mr Crow ran so very similar track conditions) and got a 105 figure for that came back to get a 94, also 11 points lower, while running huge to come second to Practical Joke in a Grade 1. So I'm a believer that those figures are very dressed up and stand no chance of being duplicated. Lastly, MR CROW (while I think he will relish the extra distance but nonetheless has to prove it) has to go first vs winners at a new distance as that huge odds on favorite. I will take a small shot against both of these popular choices with CAVIL. This is really the only one I trust to beat the Chad and Todd horses given Cavil's pedigree and connections. I understand every race besides his lone win has been bad, but its been against a serious group. He broke slowly after a 6 month layoff and rushed up to ultimately fade in his last, and if Jose can put him in a nice forward position after a clean break, maybe he can finally run the race his connections have clearly thought capable and win at a big price.
1-6-2-3
Race 9: Let me preface this and say these high quality, lightly raced horses running for the 2nd or 3rd time is by no means my strong suit, and I always look for prices in spots like this because of the extreme improvement horses are eligible to have. This race for a main event Grade 3 has a lot of guessing to do. What is particularly hard to do is identifying the horse(s) that's coming out of the strongest race. Logic would tell you it's the race where three different connections felt strong enough to enter here, which is the Aug5 race with TRUMPI, SEABHAC, and IRISH TERRITORY. All are definitely win candidates, but my pick out of that race has to be IRISH TERRITORY which will offer by far the best value. His debut was very green, steadying early, and then for some reason greenly losing contact with the field dropping way back to last before angling widest of all and finishing to me just as well as anyone in that race. Mott has given him two sharp works since, including a bullet 4f, and that might indicate a more forward placement and improved effort second time out. There's also the horses that pass the eye test, and those are UNTAMED DOMAIN and EVALUATOR. They both overcame troubled trips to gobble up their respective fields and draw away handily. Then there's the shippers from outside tracks, in which my pick of the litter would be Brad Cox's FORT WISE TREATY at a big price. So many ways to go and absolutely a spread race in multi's, but a stand needs to be made as only one can win and I'm gonna go with UNTAMED DOMAIN. I really like the way Motion and West Point have handled this 2yo colt and the way he finished on a hand ride was impressive. I just think he's gonna keep moving forward with each race. With the times and figs being very much up for debate in these races, I chose the eye test angle and UNTAMED over EVALUATOR because of Evaluator's race being against statebred company. I happen to think UNTAMED DOMAIN is a promising talent just scratching the surface, and I anticipate a big effort and another improvement.
8-9-6-11-5
Race 10: UNDER SUSPICION is the deserving favorite and very likely winner to me. She took big sharp money first out and appeared well meant, battling from the rail with 3-4 horses dueling for the lead. She kept running to the wire, angling out greenly late, but looked to benefit from the race. Now UNDER SUSPICION draws a favorable outside post and runs at a very difficult distance of 7f to win first out and has a giant advantage in here. Tom Morley looks to be the main threat to the Broman/Serpe favorite, having two in here including a firster SUNBLOCK who has been training steadily, and CLIMB THE LADDER who finished a distant secont to a much best winner early in the meet. Irad however hops off CLIMB THE LADDER to ride the 3/1 respected morning line SALTY SMILE for Rudy Rod, so if you're not singling in multi's this one is a must include.
I'll also note that it looks as if the field is running away from MR CROW in race 8 with three scratched from the field. He is probably just too tough for this field so I'll be playing against very small if at all depending on the tote.
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I'll also note that it looks as if the field is running away from MR CROW in race 8 with three scratched from the field. He is probably just too tough for this field so I'll be playing against very small if at all depending on the tote.
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