Separating contenders???

I think I do a decent job on finding the contenders in a race.  But when it comes to the win bet, I usually run 2nd, 3rd or out.

Any thoughts on separating them and picking the best steed to place the win bet on?

I could use some insight on this!

Thanks,  Jr

Thanks barber,  but what  is that criteria?   That is the question?

What is the answer?

I wasn't asking about the Derby but rather a  daily guideline. 

TY Zuck,  I've never looked at pace, running style or replays!

I still however didn't ask for anything about the Derby!  I figured out deep closers are at a disadvantage in large fields and that 2-3 yr. olds can jump up and win in a moment.

FYI, I am NOT busting your stones here.  It's just everything is not about the Derby or triple crown for me at this time of year, is all I'm saying.

{Layoff horses}

How much time is too much?  I use 60 days as my guideline but will use a horse coming off a layoff if it worked 4 times in the last 30 days (once a week).
Doesn't seem to much to ask?

Another big one for me is the drop down. A horse going from say a 10k claimer to 5k is a 50%. That tells me the horse is NOT sound and the trainer is trying to unload the horse.

So I use 25% as my guideline because I've noticed some trainers drop about this much to steal the purse and if the horse gets claimed, just more money in the coffers.

However, if the horse won last out and drops in price today that is a no-play for me.

Read this for insight. They update it almost daily during Derby week.....

https://www.drf.com/derby-watch

"Another big one for me is the drop down. A horse going from say a 10k claimer to 5k is a 50%. That tells me the horse is NOT sound and the trainer is trying to unload the horse."

True some of the time, but dropped mostly because the horse has a better chance to win at a lower level, if he qualifies. If a horse is sore, he's sore just as much at $5K as he was at $10K. Any trainer running a sore horse is asking for trouble for putting the horse in jeopardy. In addition, if a horse is sore, they have less chance of winning, which only makes common sense.

Other factors include conditions, i.e. non-winners of three races at a certain condition assuming the horse qualifies for a drop.

Thanks Mikey, but I was only talking about claimers. I respectfully have to disagree then.  I think if you drop a horse that won for say 10k in the last 3 months and today is in for 25% or more drop something is wrong! 

However, I'm sure you know a helluva lot more than I do.

BOL MikeyP, enjoy that retirement.  I know I do.

No prob, Jr...that's the reason for the forum, to share opinions.

Thanks PQ,  but I ain't on twitter or anywhere else!

Throw out some picks in here and we'll see if ya got game?

Quote Originally Posted by ParlayQueen:

I'll be perfectly honest with you, giving out picks can often affect my odds, it's a little bit different in other sports where there is a fixed price. So I'm pretty hesitant to. With that being said, I put out a "pick 6" video Friday's on @Covers Twitter page. I also do best bets on AmericasBestRacing.... my name is Monique. 

Again no thanks Monique, I do however find it interesting that you think your picks affect  the odds???    Chalk is  chalk, best bet or not and offers no value.

I try not to play the chalk and played Farhaan( sp?) in the 7th @ SA  for a nice winner yesterday.

BOL to you,  Jr

As I said, I am not on twitter so what you post there means nothing to me. I have zero followers anywhere.

If you wanna make me believe, I'll need to see some picks in here! Otherwise, I don't care what you think, plain and simple.

"Chalk is still chalk" so you're win% has to be astronomical to make money in the long run. I can cash 2-3 longshots out of 25 races and still make coin.

Chalk is not for me at this time!

All the best in your endeavors, Jr