Separating contenders???

Question

I think I do a decent job on finding the contenders in a race. But when it comes to the win bet, I usually run 2nd, 3rd or out.

Any thoughts on separating them and picking the best steed to place the win bet on?

I could use some insight on this!

Thanks, Jr

Jr315 · Answer

I think I do a decent job on finding the contenders in a race. But when it comes to the win bet, I usually run 2nd, 3rd or out.

Any thoughts on separating them and picking the best steed to place the win bet on?

I could use some insight on this!

Thanks, Jr

angrybarber · Answer

Tough decisions in a 20 horse field for sure. History tells you to pook for a horse who finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, people will bring up Giacamo(total pace meltdown) and Mine That Bird(still cant explain that one but he never won again) I'm aware of both those horses. But if you don't stick to any sort of criteria you end up all over the place.

Jr315 · Answer

Thanks barber,  but what  is that criteria?   That is the question?What is the answer?I wasn&#x27;t asking about the Derby but rather a  daily guideline.

angrybarber · Answer

Grade 1 winners have also had success since the point system was implemented. My early handicapping looks like this so far as far as finding a winner goes:A&#x27;sClassic Empire- last race was needed and he looked good doing it, should improve off that which easily puts him in the mixIrish War Cry- bounced back big from a puzzling Fountain of Youth, if he shows up he&#x27;s dangerous. Running style is a plusPractical Joke- super consistent and improved his Thorograph number each race this. Also the Blue Grass was his first 2 turn race in which he didn&#x27;t lose ground in the stretch. He should&#x27;ve won that race not being able to pass the maiden definitely a red flag. Running style is of concern also.B&#x27;sMcCraken- seemed to need the Blue Grass as a comeback race. 3-3 at CD but he may not be as fast as the fastest in the Derby. Running style is a concern Gunnevera-bounced off a huge effort in Fountain of Youth but he could bounce back. Running style is a concern Always Dreaming- Freaked in his last race and is definitely a bounce candidate in the Derby. Pletcher horses who run big figures at GP do not run well in the Derby. But he could be legit so I haven&#x27;t made a decision on him yetC&#x27;sBattalion Runner-ran a nice race in the Wood and in his 3rd race thi year could improve enough to make an impact. Running style is a plus. If he draws a good post where he could save ground he could be dangerous Irap- this one got brave on a slow pace and was able to hold off Practical Joke but he has a problem getting on his right lead in the stretch. Plus this will be is 5th race this which typically doesn&#x27;t bode well

angrybarber · Answer

You have to decide on your own criteria. If we all had tge answer then this would be easy

Jr315 · Answer

Guess I shoulda known better than to ask for some advice?

howzuck · Answer

Jr, you are a good handicapper, you have to find the contenders (as you do), then try to figure out how race will be run taking into account things like pace, post position, jockey, time off. then how to wager it is key (exacta box, WPS, daily doubles, etc.)

Angrybarber's comments are valid, but the derby is also a lot about racing luck and avoiding traffic. Horses don't usually run with 19 others and many good ones who really were the best horses of their time didn't run as they should have. I think Point Given and Holy Bull should have won their derby and it may even have been only loss of their careers. But I didn't bet them because of prohibitively low odds (I think both were about 2-1 in big fields). I remember betting Monarchos in 2001 because track was very speed favoring that day. Derby is very tough puzzle, but its fun to try and if you win payoffs can be amazing......

Jr315 · Answer

TY Zuck,  I&#x27;ve never looked at pace, running style or replays!I still however didn&#x27;t ask for anything about the Derby!  I figured out deep closers are at a disadvantage in large fields and that 2-3 yr. olds can jump up and win in a moment.FYI, I am NOT busting your stones here.  It&#x27;s just everything is not about the Derby or triple crown for me at this time of year, is all I&#x27;m saying.

howzuck · Answer

Yes, I understand, as I said, I was addressing angrybarber's comments. I know you are just asking about handicapping in general, the challenge is to identify the two or three horses that can win, then play them based on odds or value or in an exacta, or however you choose. If I really think a favorite si a "lock" and odds are too low, I simply pass the race and go on to next one, there's always another opportunity ahead.......

Those factors mentioned are generally considered by any serious handicapper, how much they are weighed is what distinguishes each person's selections.

Jr315 · Answer

{Layoff horses}How much time is too much?  I use 60 days as my guideline but will use a horse coming off a layoff if it worked 4 times in the last 30 days (once a week).Doesn&#x27;t seem to much to ask?

Jr315 · Answer

Another big one for me is the drop down. A horse going from say a 10k claimer to 5k is a 50%. That tells me the horse is NOT sound and the trainer is trying to unload the horse.

So I use 25% as my guideline because I've noticed some trainers drop about this much to steal the purse and if the horse gets claimed, just more money in the coffers.

However, if the horse won last out and drops in price today that is a no-play for me.

mikeyp1 · Answer

Read this for insight. They update it almost daily during Derby week.....https://www.drf.com/derby-watch

mikeyp1 · Answer

"Another big one for me is the drop down. A horse going from say a 10k claimer to 5k is a 50%. That tells me the horse is NOT sound and the trainer is trying to unload the horse."

True some of the time, but dropped mostly because the horse has a better chance to win at a lower level, if he qualifies. If a horse is sore, he's sore just as much at $5K as he was at $10K. Any trainer running a sore horse is asking for trouble for putting the horse in jeopardy. In addition, if a horse is sore, they have less chance of winning, which only makes common sense.

Other factors include conditions, i.e. non-winners of three races at a certain condition assuming the horse qualifies for a drop.

Jr315 · Answer

Thanks Mikey, but I was only talking about claimers. I respectfully have to disagree then. I think if you drop a horse that won for say 10k in the last 3 months and today is in for 25% or more drop something is wrong!

However, I'm sure you know a helluva lot more than I do.

BOL MikeyP, enjoy that retirement. I know I do.

mikeyp1 · Answer

No prob, Jr...that&#x27;s the reason for the forum, to share opinions.

Jr315 · Answer

Thanks PQ,  but I ain&#x27;t on twitter or anywhere else!Throw out some picks in here and we&#x27;ll see if ya got game?

mikeyp1 · Answer

Hey....that is some pretty sound advice/betting strategy from Parlay

Jr315 · Answer

Again no thanks Monique, I do however find it interesting that you think your picks affect  the odds???    Chalk is  chalk, best bet or not and offers no value.I try not to play the chalk and played Farhaan( sp?) in the 7th @ SA  for a nice winner yesterday.BOL to you,  Jr

Jr315 · Answer

As I said, I am not on twitter so what you post there means nothing to me. I have zero followers anywhere.

If you wanna make me believe, I'll need to see some picks in here! Otherwise, I don't care what you think, plain and simple.

"Chalk is still chalk" so you're win% has to be astronomical to make money in the long run. I can cash 2-3 longshots out of 25 races and still make coin.

Chalk is not for me at this time!

All the best in your endeavors, Jr

Separating contenders???

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