Tampa Bay Derby Analysis and Picks

This race has become an important prep in that a few of its competitors, year-after-year, help to fill out the field the first Saturday in May ….. Mostly with afterthoughts.

Last year’s race produced the 5^th place Derby finisher, Danzig Moon, and 10^th placer Carpe Diem, while Divining Rod went to the Preakness.

Nonetheless, it’s a formidable Grade II event with points on the line. Name brand Brody’s Cause leads the field at ML 5-2 in his 3-year old debut. Outwork, Destin and Awesome Banner offer class, but I look for a wide open affair.

Let’s get at it……

#8 Brody’s Cause…..Making his well-anticipated 3-year old debut, the 3^rd place finisher to current Derby darling Nyquist in the BC Juve, he’s beaten TC players Exaggerator and Conquest Big E. Currently ranked #5 in the drf.com Derby Watch, the colt looks more than ready for maestro Dale Romans today. If you’re a fan of the game, you will love the work regiment Dale engineered for this son of the great Giant’s Causeway. With speedy Riker and Awesome Banner likely setting a solid pace, look for Brody’s Cause to be leading the cavalry in the final furlong.

#10 Awesome Banner…..Wheeled back after two weeks, I will kick out his miserable performance in the FOY, where he got bumped, then simply lost his will finishing 26 back to Moyhamen. Coming into that race, Stan Gold’s FL-bred was striking in winning his first three races, including a graded stakes win in the Swale and Hutcheson. I look for him to bounce back, but the post and a potential upfront dual with Riker could be his failing. Note the switch in pilots to Gallardo, a 27% winner.

#7 Destin…..I thought his Sam F Davis was outstanding as he stayed a tad off the lead, then pounced. While the win was in a short field of six, he did the work that day and there is no reason to think he won’t be in the fray in this one. Todd moves from Johnny V to Javier Castellano as JV moves to Pletcher’s hopeful, #3 Outwork (a major clue?). Destin beat Rafting and entrants Morning Fire in the Davis, but lost to Mo Tom in the LeComte, after a sketchy ride by Leparoux.

#3 Outwork…..Two for two so far, including a win here on Feb. 16, he looks to vastly improve. How many times have we seen this scenario in a TC race for Todd as the trainer brings in the lightly raced up and coming 3-year old and places him in a graded stakes for the first time….with Johnny V aboard. I like this horse to make some noise today. One other handicapping note: He’s out of Uncle Mo, whose offspring is killing it this year. FACTOID: Todd 45% wins (5 for 11) last 5 years, 2^nd of layoff dirt/sprint/route.

#6 Riker…..Handicapper’s need to pay very close attention here. Hot to trot Florent Geroux rides a colt in his 2016 debut that goes to the lead with a jockey that has the hands to keep the lad interested and focused on the front end. This is what Frenchie did in the Risen Star with Gun Runner vaulting that guy from potential pretender to solid contender. Week after week I talk about Mark Casse’s solid 3-year old crop.  This one might be his best. Riker’s only blemish is a 4^th place finish to Nyqist, Swipe and Brody’s Cause in the BC Juve. Riker is out of Include, who was more than capable of the 1-1/16 mile distance, so he should have some staying power at the end.  Off solid work. Note the switch from Jesse Campbell to Geroux, an upgrade from upper deck lap dance to the Champagne Room.

#4 Economic Model…….At 5-1 ML and for Chad Brown, you cannot dismiss for a solid piece or a win. Second place finisher to Awesome Banner in the Swale, he looks as ready as can be. Chad move back to Irad Ortiz Jr and I see this son of underrated Flatter to be duking it out in the stretch.

#2 Rafting…..In many of the early preps, this guy would be in the discussion from the top, and maybe it should be today. Rafting has done nothing wrong…..2^nd in the Sam Davis after getting bumped; 5/2-1-1 against excellent competition; out of Tapit for Graham Motion. A lot to like, but he will need some luck against this bunch, but certainly not close to being impossible.

#1 Morning Fire…..15-1 on the ML offers some solid value for the 3^rd placer in the Davis to Destin and Rafting. He’s a real campaigner as this is his 10^th lifetime race. He maintains Daniel Centeno, a real plus, and a jock that is pretty hot right now (21/7-7-4 in the last 7 days) and 31% wins with trainer Keith Nations. Do not dismiss for a possible slice…or two?

My Picks: NO SCRATCHES announced as of 10:30 am Eastern

#7 Destin to win and place…..Not totally sold as he could get caught while sticking just behind the speed, which, if upfront pace holds deep, he might not catch up. I will bet that Riker, Morning Fire and Awesome Banner will flame out leaving Destin to battle with Brody and a few of closers. I think putting Javier on him is smart for Todd and it tells me that he is all-in for the win. If you think about the move of Johnny V to Outlook, my guess is that JV will work him today for the future, but this is a hunch.

 #4 Economic Model………a solid could be.

#8 Brody’s Cause…..I cannot deny the old school treatment by Romans

$16 exacta: 7/4,8

$8 exacta wheel: 4,8/7

$6 exacta 7/2,3

$3 tri wheel: 7/2,3,4,8/2,3,4,6,8

$1 tri wheel: 2,7,8/2,3,4,7,8/2,3,4,7,8

GL TO ALL!

Hey Philly....Great day of racing with these and the Santa Anita card....plus the Battaglia at TP.

GL my firend

VET....Didn't know Romo had a bar there. Great idea. I'd love to check it out.

BTW....the wife and I are toying with the idea of leaving the BiG Windy, home of high taxes, uber-corrupt politicians and a murder a minute;  and taking up stakes in Kenosha. Too bad the dog track is gone.

We'd practically be neighbors!

#7 Destin wins in a beautifully ridden race by Castellano.....

Finishes 7-3-5-2

OUTLOOK.....LOOKOUT. I think he is the real deal