Tampa Bay Downs

Here are today's scratches released a few minutes ago:

R2: 7

R6: 1,4

R7: 11,13,14

R9: 11

Race 1

$1 exacta box: 3,4,5,7

$1 double: 3,4,5,7 with 2,6,8

$3 win #3

$2 w/p #4

$2 win #5

$2 win #7

Profit was obtained.  

Had the $16+ winner and $47+ exacta.  

Will give a better update asap.

11.24.23, Black Friday

Race 1

$1 exacta box: 2,4,5,7

#2 $2 win and place

#5 $2 win and place

#7 $2 win and place

$1 double: 2,4,5,7 with 1,5,6

NO WIN/PLACE ON #2!

It should have been on #4.  Sorry about that.

11.25.23, Saturday

Race 1

$1 exacta box: 2,3,6,8

$2 w/p: 2,6,8

TAMPA NOTES

POST POSITIONS

In Sprints all 20, of 20, races the winner came from PP 10 or lower.

In Routes all 15 winners came from PP 7 or lower.

In Turf races all 14 winners came from PP 9 or lower.

TRAINERS

On the Main Track, Chelsey Moysey has yet to be ITM/win from 6 starts.

In Turf races, Amond Robbed has yet to be ITM/win from 3 starts.

In Sprint races, Chelsey Moysey has yet to be ITM/win from 6 starts.

In Route races, Nestor Gas all area has yet to be ITM/win from 6 starts.

JOCKEYS 

On the Main Track, John Hiraldo has yet to be ITM/win from 10 starts.

In Turf races, Samuel Marin and Alonso Quinonez have yet to be ITM/win from 6 starts (each).

In Sprint races, John Hiraldo has yet to be ITM/win from 10 starts.

In Route races, Samuel Marin has yet to be ITM/win from 6 starts.

11/29/23

Race 1

Exacta: 3 with all

My Tampa Bay Downs Overnight Comments for Saturday, 12.09.23
(Identifying Potential Winners)

Race 1, 12:16pm
1: Breeding Issue
2: Breeding Issue
3: T & J hitting over 18%
4: Minor award at best
5: Trip over track’s surface this meet moves them upward
6: Beaten length issues
7: Will the ‘bug’ shock the world? Betting against it.
8: Bug + beaten length issues = pass/look elsewhere
9: Days off issue

Race 2, 12:45pm
1: Horse is 0 for 14 @ TAM, make it 0 for 15
2: Contender
3: Days off issue, T has under 10% on L365, T to D and Maiden Claiming
4: J has yet to be ITM this meet, days off issue
5: Bombs away play
6: Combo cranking it out @ 23%
7: Beaten length issues
8: SCRATCHED by STEWARDS
9: Minor award at best
10: Contender

Data Sheet for TAMPA, Wednesday, 12.13.23

Race 1

Trainer Gregory Sacco has not won a dirt route race at Tampa Bay Downs (0 for 16) in the last 3 years (1095 days). He sends # 5 Jersey Gregg.

Across all US and Canadian tracks, Michael Dini has the 5th best winning percentage (2 of 4, 50%) in maiden claiming races over the last 30 days for all trainers with at least 2 starts. That includes 2 times in the money and a $2 ROI of $6.35. He sends # 3 Final Destination.

Over the past two years, Michael Dini is 1 for 13 (8%) when previously starting a horse at Meadowlands, then running it next at Tampa Bay Downs. That includes 4 seconds, 0 thirds and an ROI of $0.55. He sends # 3 Final Destination.

Watch the odds for trainer Nestor Cascallares in this race. Over the past 60 days, Nestor Cascallares is 2 for 3 (67%) when sending out the post-time favorite. He sends # 1 Perfect Moon.

Hot jockey in maiden claiming races last 10 days, Antonio Gallardo is tied for the 2nd best maiden claiming winning percentage (2 of 4, 50%) over the last 10 days for all jockeys at any track with at least 2 maiden claiming mounts. That includes 2 times in the money and a $2 ROI of $2.85. He rides # 9 Ghoststryder.

-------------------------

Race 2

Gerald Bennett is 2-for-5 (40%, $1.64 ROI) with 2 year old first-time starters in maiden claiming races over the past 365 days. He sends # 9 Sa Sa Sa.

Over the past 30 days, 11 of 22 race leaders after a half-mile in 6 furlong dirt races at Tampa Bay Downs have held on to win. That's a 50% win rate with 5 seconds, 3 thirds, 19 times in the money and a $2.92 ROI.

Gerald Bennett is 4-for-8 (50%, $3.03 ROI) in sprint races at Tampa Bay Downs over the past 90 days and finished in the money 4 times (50%). He sends # 9 Sa Sa Sa.

Gerald Bennett is 2-for-5 (40%, $1.64 ROI) with 2 year old first-time starters in maiden claiming races over the past 365 days. He sends # 9 Sa Sa Sa.

Over the past two years, Pat Clay is 0 for 5 (0%) when previously starting a horse at Delta Downs, then running it next at Tampa Bay Downs. That includes 1 second, 0 thirds and an ROI of $0.00. Clay sends # 7 More Than Destiny.

Douglas Jones has not won a maiden claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs in the last 365 days (0 for 12, 3 times in the money). He sends # 8 D Buckaroo.

Chad Lindsay and David VanWinkle have not won a maiden claiming sprint race together in the last 365 days (0 for 10, with 2 seconds and 3 thirds). This references # 1 Josh's Drama.

Jacinto Herrera and Douglas Jones have not won a maiden claiming sprint race together in the last 365 days (0 for 5, with 1 second and 0 thirds). This references # 8 D Buckaroo.

Recapping/Results

Race 1

Order: 2-3-9-5

Favorite: 9

Result: 3 (placed)

Note: #1 was a LATE SCRATCH, 12:18pm, as broke through gate a few minutes earlier which in turn changed the body of the race.

Race 2

Order: 10-2-4-6

Result: Win, place and fourth.

Race 1

Result: 9-6-7-1

Gallardo picked up the win.  ??

--------------

Race 2

Result: 4-9-7-2

Sa Sa Sa placed paying $6.40 and $3.20. ??

great job  black knight 

Thank you and hope you were cash positive for the race too.

If a trainer or jockey is winless, this meet, but still been ITM, they should be be down graded.  If they have yet to be ITM, eliminate them from the races' win.  Yes, eventually they win get the photo but percentages tell me play against them and one has a better chance to grind out a profit.

Florida and Kentucky bred horses continue to dominate the winners.  Easy to down grade others on the dirt.  Euro bred horses on the lawn should be put on the same level as those from Florida and Kentucky (turf only).

Back to back winners, race 1 to race 2; race 2 to race 3; etc, happen more with pilots than conditioners but ( for the race ) should be eliminated from ones win tickets.  If the need to play them, put they in multi-races (doubles, pick 3, pick 4 etc).

No system will work, or fail, 100% of the time.  Trying to get an edge is where one can pick up extra tickets.

Turf racing returns the 22nd.

12.22.23

Race 3

Turf

1: beaten lengths issue

2: breeding issue

3: beaten lengths issue

4: days off issue 

5: first time start issue

6:  player

7: first time start issue

8: first time start issue

9: breeding issue

10: player

11: scratch

12: scratch

13: scratch

This race, using the 6 and 10 as main choices and will key them in exotics if odds are favorable.  Could understand using the 2 in multi-races.  

Results

2 (3/5*) -9 (19/1)-6(4/1)-7(19/1)

My track notes for the pilots today:

Daniel Centeno over the Main track is 0 for 24 to get a win.  Six places and one show, finish, aren't things to brag about either but on the turf he's gotten 9 photos from 28 opportunities and been the runner up 4 other times.

John Hiraldo is 0 for 27 on the Main track and has no places but six shows.

Mario Jimenez has yet to be ITM, from ten starts, over the Main track.

Jorge Varga is 0 for 13 on the lawn so far this meet but has 4 runner ups and a show finish to credit.

Every track have trainers, jockeys, owners, combinations that for whatever reason(s) don't get to the winner's circle.  Somewhere along the way, this meet, they will (hopefully for their sake) but until they to, I'm wagering against them.