#1 Rockin Rudy…..Doug
O’Neill’s entry at 12-1 ML and on the improve, the son of Midshipman makes his
big race debut off a career of 3/2-1-0 and a popper Beyer at 95 last out. That
was on the turf, as was his three-year old debut last February, both second
place finishes. Shipping in from SoCal, Rudy won his debut as a two-year old in
wire fashion at 5-1/2 F in 1:03.59 after a blistering .21.8 first quarter. Mr. Gutierrez
flies in for the ride (Leparoux rode Irap in the BG). The hood is off in his
route debut and he should go for the lead and might hold it for at least half
or so, if not all?. After Irap’s win in the Blue Grass, I can’t doubt the Milkshake Man’s
decisions. Look for clues, but a piece could be in the offing.
#2 Classic Empire…..Well,
it’s about time! His injury issues (foot) aside, he looks ready for this. No
trainer, or betting backer, likes to see a real horse like this miss a mid-TC
race. While there is no indication Classic Empire is a freak, his lifetime of
6/4-0-1 says it all having won three Grade One’s, the BC Juve, Hopeful and
Breeders Futurity. His Holy Bull wasn’t very good, but it is a race he probably
needed off layoff. The question bettors should ask is, “If he failed off his
last three-month layoff, will the same happen today?” Will his stalk and pounce
style work with a ton of upfront speed today, including Malacacy and Petrov setting
the pace with Rudy? The only one to Beyer at 100 (102 in the BC Juve), Leparoux,
Frenchman #1, returns for Mark Casse. If Classic Empire wins this, he would have
really earned it. If so, put a big circle around his name on Derby Day?
#3 Silver Dust…..This
guy sold for $510,000 and, as a Tapit colt out of a Hard Spun mare, you might
think he should be better than 4/1-0-0. But before officially granting
Underachiever Status, consider that he finished just 3-1/4 back to Melagacy in
the Rebel after being last out of the gate with an 87 Beyer at the finish.
Trainer Randy Morse put the blinkers on for his last work for this, a spicy
.59.2. At 20-1, a very must consider for a taste. Veteran Lanerie holds the
belt.
#4 Petrov…A gate
buster at a juicy 12-1, the winner of nothing yet is, me-thinks, a very possible to win this. Like Irap
last week, this might be the day the Flatter colt (Bertrando mare) might put
all of it together, although distance an issue. Petrov finished fourth, by just two out, to Malagacy in the
Rebel with second’s in his previous three, including the Southwest garnering a 96
Beyer, (Boys, one of the best Beyer’s of all here), the Smarty Jones and Kings
Swan. Local conditioner Ron Moquett puts Ricky Santana in the sack. Ricky won
this last year on Creator. Steady work coming in and likely to stay near the
leaders. If Petrov gets a pace, the light might go on. A possible upset with a healthy
piece in mind.
#6 Lookin at Lee…Many
laughed at me for picking this guy to win the Rebel…and those of you who got a
chuckle out it were right! However, while Lee finished 6th in that
race, he was just 3-3/4 behind the winner after sitting boxed early, then shifting
out for breathing room. Earned his highest lifetime Beyer in that one, an 86
figure. This guy can close and close well. With this field, the closing kick
just might be the tonic for a win. Trainer Asmussen won last year with Creator
and switches to Contreras. The pair are 22% wins in 102 races with the jock 20%
this year, so take note! A handicapper’s choice, like with Petrov, I’m looking
for the light switch. A consider for all, if not a part of the prize.
#7 Sonnetter.…I
thought this guy might do something good in the Rebel, and he did, finishing
second to Malagacy losing by two. Sonnetter was shuffled out, which cost him
early, but earned an 89 Beyer. Keith D. puts his bro, Kent D., in the side car
for this with the work indicating the boys think the Midnight Lute colt can win.
Kent won this in 1999 on Certain and, at 15-1, is worth and underlay looky.
#9 Untrapped…...He’s
been very solid on the Trail……3rd, two out in the Rebel; 2nd, two out in the
Risen Star; 2nd, 1-1/4 out in the LeComte. That ain’t bad, folks,
and worth rationalizing for win or major paper. What I like best is the switch
to Mike Smith, especially since the lad comes off the pace with Mikey the
tactician having a clock in his brain. Working steadily for this, Asmussen puts
on the blinkers. It can all add up today. Can he handle the extra space? I
think so.
#11 Conquest Mo Money….Pretty
good for an $8,500 seller, son of Uncle Mo has collected over $300K in checks,
including a second place finish to Hence in the Sunland Derby….note a 1-1/8
miles distance in that one. The Sunland was a personal pain in my tuccus, just like
last week’s SA Derby. The colt has talent at 4/3-1-0 lifetime, but his 87 Beyer
in New Mexico might not be enough to get it done among this crowd. While I will
pass for win, I will include in the rear-end of my tri wheel to ensure a price if this
thing splits in the seams.
.. couldnt be here very long sat.. vetrdm,mids,tiger,rob,h...jr.
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