Well, the big day has arrived and from all of the dialogue I’ve read on Covers, it seems like the opinions are most varied and wide-open, as is the race. One late note: EPICHARIS SCRATCHED.
Let’s see if we can sort it out.
#1 Twisted Tom….The wise guy horse? After Chad Brown’s training job with Cloud Computing in the Preakness, there is no reason to deny that this son of Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) and a Thunder Gulch mare doesn’t have a chance to compete today despite odds of 20-1. Thunder Gulch won the 1995 Belmont. TT gets Castellano, a huge plus, and comes off three straight wins, including the locally competitive Tesio (Laurel). While his competitors to date can’t pass muster with most of these, Tom appears to be capable of getting the 1-1/2 miles distance via the breeding and style. A career record of 6/4-0-0, his worst finish was 6th, but less than four behind the winner. An excellent work on June 3 sets him up for this at a track in which he has won a race—albeit on the turf. For those concerned about his traveling to Elmont, Tom has had four races in NY, including his Belmont win, with two races at Aqueduct and one at Saratoga. His speed figures rate with just a few of the entrants, but at 1-1/2 miles, it’s his closing kick, I believe, that can help him capture a top 5 finish. I’ll bet on his improvement, and will put him in my exotics hoping to catch lightening.
#2 Tapwrit…..Oh where, oh where has my Tampa Derby winner gone? Coming off two dismal performances, losing by a combined total of 22-3/4 L, I don’t think any of us expected Taprwrit to be this bad at this time in his development. While I’d love to throw out at least one of his last two races, I just can’t find excuses for doing so despite his being jostled a time or three at Churchill. Smart move by Pletch to keep him away from Pimlico. His work has been OK for this, but nothing that makes a jaw drop. A candidate to improve with Pletcher vying for his third Belmont, call me Doubting Thomas-Mikey for win, but a major slice possible. The gray/roan record a factor?
#3 Gormley….A few lengths shy of being designated with official “Underachiever” status, he did little in the Kentucky Derby to show that he belonged with the elites that day. Another candidate for improving, his connections pray that he makes the same late move as in the SA Derby. Certainly possible, but can that kick hold the added panels? That said, he does have Belmont breeding all over the map: Grandson of ’92 winner Malibu Moon, who is out of Belmont winner A.P. Indy, who is son of Seattle Slew and dam was a daughter of Secretariat. A.P. Indy sired 2007 filly and Belmont champ Rags to Riches. While that is a mouthful, it does give credence to a possible Gormley win, if not decent portion. The other “rationalization” for him is the boy’s win-lose, win-lose, win-lose pattern. In his past six races, Gormley has won-lost, won-lost, and won-lost. He’s on the win cycle this time. Shirreffs and Espinoza combo most credible with Victor a past winner.
Hot Forum Topics
