The Bluegrass Stakes Analysis and Picks

Bluegrass Stakes 2019 G-II, 1-18 miles

Another wide open affair, it appears, with a bunch searching for points….. WIN WIN WIN, Vekoma, Signalman and a “take-a-lookski” at longshot Dream Maker, are part of the 14 horse field. This is an annual race that always seems to be overshadowed, but some steady hands have come out of it as winners. These include the late Irap, who got better afterwards, Dullahan, General Quarters and Carpe Diem in recent years. A race with lots of upsets over the years…..

#1 Somelikeithotbrown…….A lot of early hope and promise for this Big Brown and he hasn’t disappointed with a career 7/3-2-1. Question that needs to be asked is, “Who’s he beat?” Talking out of two sides of my mouth, he has won two stakes and finished third in the other one. He has also won at the distance. He has 20 points so far, so he needs to show up today. Trainer Mike Maker won this in 2010 in shocking fashion with $82.00 winner Stately Victor. GoodBoy Tyler Gafflalione sits in the cow hide, and he’s a winner. No way to dismiss him at 10-1 ML, but he is going to have to get out quick, which is his style, and hope to hold on from early light.

#2 Vekoma…..To quote the great Lou Reed, he seems to be “everyone’s darling.” Indeed, his 9/5 odds makes him the morning fave off his third place finish in the Fountain of Youth, which was won by Code of Honor with Bourbon War coming in second. Note to self: Check to see what COH and BW did since then. He certainly has the speed with some saying he is destined to go turf being out of the great Candy Ride. However, Candy Ride has proven to sire good ones on any surface. What you gotta like? Second start of the year. He gets Castellano up. Good work. Good speed. Not sure if he will go out for the lead, but it’s proved his salvo in his two wins. Trainer George Weaver says the boy has tactical speed. He might need it today.

#3 Signalman…….Well, well. What have we here? Looks like a horse that blew a tire in the FOY, but I choose to toss. He doesn’t have the bestest of speed, but he has journeymen sharpies in McPeek and Brian Hernandez, a record of 4/1-1-1, all of it at age two;  boffo work coming in AND his papa, General Quarters, is a past winner of this race. Not sure if 5-1 is a blessing or a curse, but I must include. He has 18 points and I have to think he will improve today with his mid-pack stance key to his final steps at the end.

#4 Market Key…….D. Wayne Lukas brings a nice colt to the party in Market Key (20-1), who finished third in the Rebel A Group. This could be one of those Dwayne’s that improves with time, like Charismatic, Oxbow and others did for him. Wayne last won this in 2000 with High Yield. Doesn’t appear to me that today is the day for this son of Into Mischief, so I will pass. However, with improvement today, maybe bigger things soon.

#5 Chess Chief…….Another Into Mischief, he is 30-1 ML, but the boy is trained by Dallas Stewart and piloted by Paco Lopez, who command respect. Working well, he broke his maiden last out. A huge task today.

#6 Dream Maker……Owned by John Oxley, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Frenchy Geroux would be enough for many to sprint to the window. Hold your horses. Bumped and steadied in the TB Derby, he finished 8-1/4L out. Two back, he lost by 24L, then won a $50K O/C at FG by 4-1/2L. So what happens today? His two wins were from not far off the pace. Out of the 6 post, he has a chance to run his race. I cannot dismiss with Geroux up and a prosperous 12-1 on the ML. A must consider for me for a nice piece, if not for all in an upset.

#7 Admire……He has two graded stakes under his belt, including finishing 7^th in the TB Derby and 5^th in the Withers. Nonetheless, this is a good spot for the Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile) colt. The breeding suggests he has a bright future, which must start today. Dale Romans is a local legend, and that is good. He won with Dullahan in 2012. However, he draws Robbie Albarado, a jock I would not let park my car, let alone ride my horse. In this field, a chance for some.

#8 Win Win Win……..One of the classier in the field, he’s been pretty good finishing 3^rd in the TB Derby less than three out…..as the beaten fave. His dad was prolific Japanese sire Hat Trick, out of Sunday Silence, and a Smarty Jones dam, which counts for something. He’s got the speed and can stalk and pounce, but the light must go on in the final furlong. The colt’s best win was in the Pasco setting a track record and he gets I. Ortiz Jr, which is good enough for me. Let’s see if the Trombetta charge shows up. A palatable 7/2 ML.

#9 Sir Winston……..The second of Mark Casse’s entrants in this race, he’s pinballed around a five tracks during his seven race career searching for……something. A bit of a dawdler, he’s done nothing to get my toes to tappin’. Jockey Leparoux won on Java’s War in 2013 and with Irap in 2017. Might need to go longer than 1-1/8. Can’t see it.

#10 Lucky Lee…….The seventh place finisher in the withers looks overmatched here, but he has excellent upfront capability, which he will need to get out of the 9 spot. John Servis trains the son of Flatter with maintenance man Chris Landeros doing the slapping. Maybe a slice?

The rest of the field…..

#11 So Alive……Pletcher, Louis Saez; third in the Sam F Davis; Out of SuperSaver. Chance for a taste.

#12 Parsimony…….O’Neill, Mario G. The colt is a maiden. Same strategy as when O’Neill won with maiden Irap? I said that Irap had no chance in 2017. I won’t say that about Parsimony, but this will be a tough task for him.

#13 Moonster……Another Dale Romans with McKee on top. He’s done nothing of import.

#14 Aqaudini……Talent out of Bernadini, but a real rough go out of this post. Lanerie and Dallas Stewart combine. Maybe not today, but keep an eye on his for mid-level stakes and high Allowance races.

My picks

#6 Dream Maker to win and place. I think this is the day he runs his race and I plan to be there for it. Watch for Signalman.

$16 exacta straight……… 6-3

$8 exacta straight……3-6

 $6 exacta whl……..3,6/1,8,12

$2 tri whl………….3,6/1,3,6,8,12/1,3,6,8,12