The Fountain of Youth--Analysis and Picks

Gulfstream, Grade II, $400,000, 1-1/16 miles, dirt

A challenging handicapping venture today, cappers and cappets, with a whole lotta lopers looking to make the break to the next level.

Irish War Cry mowed em’ down in the Holy Bull wiring the field by 3-3/4L and, in the process, enabled mucho chubbies among his backers and former non-follows. Better be careful today. Gunnevera looks to bust with Practical Joke, much the early wiseguy talk….until he went 3-1 M. Then, there is Takaful, after a miserable Jerome, retreating to FLA rather than face El Areeb at home in NY in the Gotham.

#8 Irish War Cry……Is 5-2 ML too little or too much? Not sure if, in recent years, I’ve seen a colt undefeated lifetime (3/3-0-0) coming off a lifetime high speed figure and having just made semi-pee pee on the field in a G-II race beating two top contenders (Gunnevera and Classic Empire) viewed with a jaundiced eye by many (Keep in mind that fave Classic Empire had the foot issue coming out of the Bull).  So the question is, “Does the New Jersey-bred son of Curlin sprint from the gate, or hold back and stalk, as he is capable of both styles?” Plenty of upfront speed with Beasley, Takaful, Practical Joke and Lookin’ for Eight with any of the four capable of a wire job.

Here is the rap on the Irishman, according to drfTimeform USA:

“Yet the question at hand remains: Is he a worthy bet in this race? In short, probably not. As previously mentioned, he fell into a perfect trip in the Holy Bull, finding himself on the lead through relatively slow fractions as the other speeds in the race decided not to go. That will not be the case this time.”

I like his chances for major, if not win, with Rosario handling for Animal Kingdom trainer Motion.

#2 Gunnevera….I think he is ready to pop off his Holy Bull, his first race as a three-year old. Looks like the boy learned a lot in that one as he ran well down the track chasing Irish War Cry. Terrific work coming in. Tactically, with 3 or 5 likely to get out early, jockey Castellano has to be sure this one doesn’t get away from him as happened in the Bull. Different day, different horse? I think so and this could be a big day for the son of Dialed (Mineshaft).

#6 Practical Joke…..He loses Rosario, but gains J.L. Ortiz, who is 25% wins and a whopping 42% combined with Chad Brown in 38 races. Blowing it out in the morning with big-time works and, if you look close at the work pattern, it shows a colt that just wants to compete and compete big. PJ’s three-year old debut, he is 4/3-0-1 lifetime with his only loss a third place finish in the BC Juve to Classic Empire. Two G-I wins (Hopeful and Champagne) with some question about his distance pedigree, but I will toss that for today, as he looks like he just wants to run. I think the pace plays into his hand with the boy having a huge chance. Note on Chad: Past 2 year-olds and three-year olds, 61-180 layoff, the trainer is 22% wins (8 for 22).

#9 Made You Look……The Todd N’ Johnny show plays in Hallandale with a More Than Ready colt out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, so the breeding is there. Lifetime 6/3-1-1, all on turf with three graded stakes, including two wins, how well will that transfer to dirt? I think it does off his pappy and maternal grandpa. The guy can close well, so keep that in mind when the upfront speed begins to peter-out. Johnny V is a 4-time winner of this one with Todd winning twice in the FOY. At 10-1, I must consider for upset, if this thing goes nutsy and the colt decides the dirt is his playground. That said, smoke this factoid: Pletcher is 0-9 in graded stakes with 3-year olds turf to dirt collecting a minor check just once.

#10 Takaful….”X” factor today? Is he ducking El Areeb in The Gotham, or does the trainer thinks he fits better here?He is 12-1 ML, but if Takaful returns to his 92 Beyer form in his maiden, we might see a real horse. Today is the day when the son of Bernardini either moves on to greater heights, or officially earns Mikeyp’s “Classic Underachiever” designation. However, he is working nicely and seems fit for this. Trainer McLaughlin won the FOY twice and has won half of his eight races with Paco Lopez in the leather. Takaful will go early, maybe his best chance, with a piece not out of the question despite stamina concerns. If the 150 watt bulb goes on, he’s a definite could-be.

#11 Lookin For Eight…..I sort of like the son of Lookin’ At Lucky for a possible check based on two decent lifetime races at this track. Tough post, especially with the potential early speed, but he gets a good rater in Leparoux at the helm for Mark Casse. I think he improves today and someone to watch---outside the Trail?-- unless he goes bonkers today.

#7 Three Rules….I have to take a look for some based on his lifetime record of 7/5-1-0, including 6/5-1-0 at Gulfstream. Note his only venture out of the state was a 6^th place finish in the BC Juve about 15 out. The Florida-bred gets Saez (Corny V off) to take the trip for local conditioner Jose Pinchin. Not expecting much, but interesting form and a chance to scout the talent for future GP lesser stakes. PS: Saez won this in 2014 and 2015.

#5 Beasley….I like his early speed, which could figure big today whether at the start or at the finish. At 6-1 ML, and making his stakes debut after two OC races and maiden win, I see the odds-making for Beasley with crossed eyes. Nice effort to finish second to Pletcher's talented Battalion Runner last out, Mark Hennig, a decent trainer, mentors with Irad Ortiz reigning. There is a chance that he will scratch out of this for the Tampa Bay Derby, so note the pre-game board.

#1 Huracan Americo……One of those unknown South Americans debuting here, he last won the Peruvian Derby (BTW…a 1-1/2 miles race), which, I think, might be equivalent to the $500 MikeyP Stakes at Teddy Roosevelt High School’s running track. (I hope I don’t eat those words!). Edgar Prado drives the Uber today.

#4 Talk Logistics…..I gotta look at anything Eddie Plesa runs here. Not a lot to love, but an interesting form with Jersey Joe piloting. TL did finish 4^th in the Holy Bull more than 4L behind the winner.

My Picks:

#2 Gunnevera to win and place….I think he gets it done today in a totally different type of race than the Holy Bull with a pace that sets up for his style.

$12 exacta wheel: 2/6, 8

$6 exacta wheel:  2/9, 10

$3 tri: 2/6, 8,9,10, 11/2, 6,8,9,10,11

Gunnevera in a very nice deep close win.

2-6-7

2-6-7-4-11 is the final finish

Great races by Gunnevera and Practical Joke

THANKS KURSCH....very nice exacta too.

 So far, I haven't seen anyone that has reminded me of American Pharoah. However, that might be good as the field could be relatively fair value.

VET