The Jerome--Analysis and Picks

G-III, One mile 70 Yards, $150K, Inner Track

An interesting mix of “brand-new” three-year olds, most having the word “Underachiever” tattooed inside their lips.

Nonetheless, its spots like this that often propel a young horse to the next level.

If anything, the race features a group of excellent trainers and even better sires in what I would rate, potentially, as a mediocre-to-OK money-making opportunity.

The class of the group looks to be second fave at 3-1 ML, #6 El Areeb, a nice Exchange Rate colt, and even-money ML fave, #3 Takaful, for McGlaughlin.

Out of the great Bernardini, Takaful, a Shadwell Farm product, is “fresh” (November 26) off a 3^rd place finish in The Remsen (GII) to Mo Town and No Dozing. In that key 2-year old race, Takaful shot out to the lead, but weakened to lose by 6L. Look for pilot Jose Ortiz to temper the youngster a bit this time, but he needs to take note as El Areeb should hit the gas pedal early in an attempted steal.

Note: In breaking his maiden, Takaful grabbed a 92 Beyer winning by 8L in that 6F race. Key stat: Kiaran M. is 21% wins in 59 graded stakes.

In winning his last race at Laurel Park, the James F Lewis ($100K, G-III, 6F), El Areeb wired winning by 5L under jockey McCarthy for trainer Cal Lynch and, in the process, hit a 94 Beyer. The colt broke his maiden in the race prior winning that 6F event by almost 9 lengths. Key stat: Trainer is 0 for 1 in career graded stakes. Three nice works coming in.

McGlaughlin enters somewhat improving #4 True Timber, a Mineshaft colt who broke his maiden at Aqueduct last out with a decent close in the 6F race (70 Beyer). If there is a speedball between El Areeb and Takaful, this might be your guy, who could be ripping at the end under tactful veteran Carmouche. Key stat: Boffo work on December 16 at 48.1 hand.

Pletcher’s #7 Win With Pride (6-1 ML) offers solid potential at a decent price with a chance for a nice piece, if not the win, having finished 4^th in The Remsen just behind Takaful’s third. In that race, the boy went a bit wide, but stayed the course in 4^th place behind the leaders. If IOrtiz Jr can keep him steady and focused in the stretch, Win With Pride might make some loud noise. Backers need a quick pace upfront so this guy can move forward if frontrunners fade. Steps up today? Key stat: jock/trainer at 22% wins.

Steady performer, #2 Everyoneluvsrudy (8-1 ML; 5/1-3-0), looks to be a potential campaigner having notched five races –4 since September—off his debut last July at Saratoga for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. The colt has a few things going for him, including pulling away to win his maiden in his last race. He’s run a mile in his last three races, which qualifies him for fit to take on the extra yardage. In addition, Everybodyluvsrudy ran well three back finishing second to TC contender and Remsen winner Mo Town. Switches from IOrtiz Jr to Arroyo (Note: Arroyo was on him his first 3 career races). . Don’t dismiss for some if not all. Key stat: Rodriguez is 21% wins off 31-60 day layoff. Trainer hot, hot, hot; 35% wins in 2016 at the A; overall, 20% wins in 2016.

My picks:

As of 11:00 am Eastern, no scratches; light rain, tack rated “fast”; #5, THE WALK, with the hood. #4 TRUE TIMBER, +1

#3 Takaful……to win. Chalky chalky, but I think the cream rises to the top. However, it might not be easy if he tags with El Areeb in a match race, and with Win with Pride and True Timber breathing down his neck.

$10 exacta: 3/ 4, 7

$5 exacta straight: 3-2

$4 exacta: 2,4,7/3

$3 tri:  3/2,4,7/2,4,6,7

$1 tri: 2,4,7/3/2,4,7

One more reminder:

The Jerome is an official prep stakes for the Kentucky Derby.

The winner receives 10 qualifying points with four points for second, two to third and one to fourth.

finished 6-1-4-7

El Areeb electric by about 10L after Takaful backs off and looks like he pulled up