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    All Forums | Horse Racing

    The Sunland Derby--Analysis and Picks

    mikeyp1
    vetdrm
    pittsburghphil
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    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 2:42 PM ET #1

    1-1/8 miles, dirt, G-III, $800,000…the last of the 50 pointers (except for the Lexington)

    I’ve come to very much like this race over the past 10 years or so, mostly because it mixes a cocktail of hard-knockers, many from Cali and Oak Lawn, with top notch locals.

    The hard-knockers to whom I refer are “guys” like Daddy Nose Best, Governor Charlie and Chitu, winners in recent years. Winning trainers, since 2003, range from Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill and Steve Asmussen to Henry Dominguez, Mike Machowsky and Shannon Ritter with a little Jeff Bonde and Tom Amoss thrown in for good measure.

    Winning jocks include Marty Garcia, Mike Smith, Gary Stevens and Julien Leparoux along with Christian Santiago Reyes and Ricardo Jaime.

    Much of the same today with the Nationals, Baffert, O’Neill and Pletcher, among them, sending in three years olds to compete with locals, like Miguel Hernandez and Greg Green.

    So what do we have?

    I contend that a few of the combatants in today’s Sunland Derby would have been world beaters in yesterday’s horrendous Spiral (#WeAllFallDown).

    #3 Bronze Age….Off the bat, here comes Baffert with one of his “B” players, Bronze Age, the fave at 3-1 ML. This is familiar territory for Double-B similar to his dropping Governor Charlie into this race in 2013. The Mineshaft colt looks ready for the step-up after popping a 93 Beyer last out at Santa Anita to break his maiden. But wait…..that was after losing both his two-year old and three-year old debuts by a combined 23-1/4 L. Backers will say that the colt was a typical young dawdler in his first two races. There might be some truth to it given his terrific work coming into this. Marty Garcia softens the leather for this and he won on both Chitu and…..Governor Charlie. Take a good look at Bronze Age’s form. Before punching your tickets, ask yourself if there are distance and stamina issues for this likely front runner.

    #12 Conquest Mo Money….The New York-bred, out of Uncle Mo, is trained by Sunland resident Miguel Hernandez, who is currently fourth in earnings and tied for third in wins (21%) in the track’s trainer standings. Undefeated in three career races, including wins over Irap and Wine and Divine, both competing in this race, CMM has yet to venture out of Albuquerque. Those that know how this track plays will consider that a big plus and, perhaps so. With his get-out-quick style, he might be ok out of No. 12. Jorge Carreno rides, and while not a well-known name, the guy is approaching 1,400 career wins with more than $13 million in purses. However, those who follow this sport daily might remember Carreno for his misjudging the distance in a race in 2007 (See YouTube). Uncle Mo has popped out some pretty good NY-bred Keeneland sellers. Conquest fetched just $8,500, a great investment that has paid off nicely as the lad has about $133K in winnings. At 9-2 ML, it could be feast or famine today, as he either electrifies or goes into hibernation out of the post. Note: Jock-trainer together are 32% wins in 76 races.

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    1-1/8 miles, dirt, G-III, $800,000…the last of the 50 pointers (except for the Lexington)

    I’ve come to very much like this race over the past 10 years or so, mostly because it mixes a cocktail of hard-knockers, many from Cali and Oak Lawn, with top notch locals.

    The hard-knockers to whom I refer are “guys” like Daddy Nose Best, Governor Charlie and Chitu, winners in recent years. Winning trainers, since 2003, range from Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill and Steve Asmussen to Henry Dominguez, Mike Machowsky and Shannon Ritter with a little Jeff Bonde and Tom Amoss thrown in for good measure.

    Winning jocks include Marty Garcia, Mike Smith, Gary Stevens and Julien Leparoux along with Christian Santiago Reyes and Ricardo Jaime.

    Much of the same today with the Nationals, Baffert, O’Neill and Pletcher, among them, sending in three years olds to compete with locals, like Miguel Hernandez and Greg Green.

    So what do we have?

    I contend that a few of the combatants in today’s Sunland Derby would have been world beaters in yesterday’s horrendous Spiral (#WeAllFallDown).

    #3 Bronze Age….Off the bat, here comes Baffert with one of his “B” players, Bronze Age, the fave at 3-1 ML. This is familiar territory for Double-B similar to his dropping Governor Charlie into this race in 2013. The Mineshaft colt looks ready for the step-up after popping a 93 Beyer last out at Santa Anita to break his maiden. But wait…..that was after losing both his two-year old and three-year old debuts by a combined 23-1/4 L. Backers will say that the colt was a typical young dawdler in his first two races. There might be some truth to it given his terrific work coming into this. Marty Garcia softens the leather for this and he won on both Chitu and…..Governor Charlie. Take a good look at Bronze Age’s form. Before punching your tickets, ask yourself if there are distance and stamina issues for this likely front runner.

    #12 Conquest Mo Money….The New York-bred, out of Uncle Mo, is trained by Sunland resident Miguel Hernandez, who is currently fourth in earnings and tied for third in wins (21%) in the track’s trainer standings. Undefeated in three career races, including wins over Irap and Wine and Divine, both competing in this race, CMM has yet to venture out of Albuquerque. Those that know how this track plays will consider that a big plus and, perhaps so. With his get-out-quick style, he might be ok out of No. 12. Jorge Carreno rides, and while not a well-known name, the guy is approaching 1,400 career wins with more than $13 million in purses. However, those who follow this sport daily might remember Carreno for his misjudging the distance in a race in 2007 (See YouTube). Uncle Mo has popped out some pretty good NY-bred Keeneland sellers. Conquest fetched just $8,500, a great investment that has paid off nicely as the lad has about $133K in winnings. At 9-2 ML, it could be feast or famine today, as he either electrifies or goes into hibernation out of the post. Note: Jock-trainer together are 32% wins in 76 races.

     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 2:43 PM ET #2

    #1 Shareholder Value…Another son of Uncle Mo (and an Unbridled’s Song mare), after his maiden win, then entering the Ky. JC, last November, I thought we might see a BMW 640i coupe. However, the colt has turned into a bit of a Ford Fiesta in his last two, the Risen Star and the LeComte, finding a fair amount of trouble. Maybe today is the day he gets righted. After all, there are few better than Tom Amoss to get them straight. I have found Fairgrounds, where SV has raced since December, a particularly good surface for young ones to learn and train. Maybe the light turns on today at 6-1 ML, with a ship to a track he might like, and the switch to Castellano. Seeing the myriad of ways the colt has raced, I will be interested to see the strategy Amoss’ employs. His last two works suggest early speed might be the ticket, but let’s see.

    #2 Hedge Fund…..OK, Todd. Who shows up today, Melagacy or Benson? The boy did well in his maiden victory last out winning by 4 L in a sleepy 1:44+ with Castellano handling the chores. Jose Ortiz, a plus for me, takes the mount today aboard the son of Super Saver in a real test for the future. I love when Pletcher puts young horses in these spots, as he did with Melagacy, and this is a great place to test his heart. Lots of early speed in this race, so if his heart is going to get built up for the rest of the Trail, assuming he stays on it, today is the day.

    #5 Irap…..Ahhhh, ya’ gotta love Doug O’Neill for putting this guy in this race. Not because Doug is such a genius, but because this colt has the most experience at two turns (4 races: 3/0-3-0 and a 4th, less than 5L out) and has raced against a slew of good ones competing every time out. In fact, his three second place finishes at 1-1/16 are to Mastery (the G-I Los Al Fut.), Royal Mo (the Robert Lewis) and Conquest Mo Money (the Mine That Bird), none of them slackers. Out of Tiznow and a Storm Cat mare, you would think his future is a bright one, and maybe today is the start of that at 6-1ML. With a number of them going to the lead, his stalking style might set up perfectly for this, but for his seconditis (6/0-3-1 lifetime). Doug rides Mario G for this, as he should. Lot to like today….a maiden no more?

    #7 Kimbear….Here is an interesting guy at 15-1 ML for trainer Eric Kruljac, if, for any other reason than his three works coming into this: .58.2, .59.2, .59 flat. His maiden indicates he might like the stretch to 1-1/8. While Kimbear might be destined for a career on the California lawn, he certainly appears to handle the dirt nicely and should be a must-consider for some. Joe Talamo takes the reigns.

    #4 Oxford Lane…A good looker for McPeek with nice tactical speed and, at 15-1, one who might see a very nice piece of the pie. Career of 4/1-2-1, Sunland is the fourth track he’ll see with little to believe he won’t ship well. Richard Eramia, who has been aboard for the colt’s two second place finishes, buzzes in from Oak Lawn to grab the strap.

    #6 Dilettante…..Another Lukas three-year old with a resume a half-mile long (9 career races), Dilettante, an Unbridled’s Song colt ( Distorted Humor mare), blew a tire in the SW at Oak Lawn. However, his work has been very nice since. He tries the new metallic hip of Gary Stevens for this one, and that’s good. Toss his Southwest and there appears to be some (Sun) light at the end of the tunnel for a possible top 5 finish.

    #9 Hence… Asmussen brings in a capable youngster (5/1-1-1) coming off a not-today Southwest when he finished in seventh place 13 out. However, his Beyer in that race was a respectable 81 and this lad has some good things going for him.  Local hero Alfredo Juarez, second in wins here, straddles the son of Street boss (Street Cry).

    #10 Balandeen…I might have simply skipped over this guy, but he did finish second to McCraken in the Street Sense at CD as a two-year old, so I had to look. Trainer Chris Hartman takes Channing Hill away from Sunday dinner at the Catalano household to ride. Off second place finishes, yesterday, in both the Bourbenette Oaks and Spiral at Turfway, Hill seems like the right guy to put on this 10-1 ML performer. In his second race off a three month layoff, I think Balandeen (Bernardini) moves ahead.

    #11 Total Tap….The second of two Asmussen’s in this one, the Candy Ride colt improved off a nice win last out, but has a long way to go, it appears. My guess is that the boy will find a nice life on the grass out of Candy Ride (the colt won his debut by 7-1/2 on turf), but why not take a shot? Geroux is supposed to ride coming off his second place finish on Gun Runner yesterday in the Dubai. Let’s hope he doesn’t get jet lag in the stretch as there is a chance for a slice.

     

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    #1 Shareholder Value…Another son of Uncle Mo (and an Unbridled’s Song mare), after his maiden win, then entering the Ky. JC, last November, I thought we might see a BMW 640i coupe. However, the colt has turned into a bit of a Ford Fiesta in his last two, the Risen Star and the LeComte, finding a fair amount of trouble. Maybe today is the day he gets righted. After all, there are few better than Tom Amoss to get them straight. I have found Fairgrounds, where SV has raced since December, a particularly good surface for young ones to learn and train. Maybe the light turns on today at 6-1 ML, with a ship to a track he might like, and the switch to Castellano. Seeing the myriad of ways the colt has raced, I will be interested to see the strategy Amoss’ employs. His last two works suggest early speed might be the ticket, but let’s see.

    #2 Hedge Fund…..OK, Todd. Who shows up today, Melagacy or Benson? The boy did well in his maiden victory last out winning by 4 L in a sleepy 1:44+ with Castellano handling the chores. Jose Ortiz, a plus for me, takes the mount today aboard the son of Super Saver in a real test for the future. I love when Pletcher puts young horses in these spots, as he did with Melagacy, and this is a great place to test his heart. Lots of early speed in this race, so if his heart is going to get built up for the rest of the Trail, assuming he stays on it, today is the day.

    #5 Irap…..Ahhhh, ya’ gotta love Doug O’Neill for putting this guy in this race. Not because Doug is such a genius, but because this colt has the most experience at two turns (4 races: 3/0-3-0 and a 4th, less than 5L out) and has raced against a slew of good ones competing every time out. In fact, his three second place finishes at 1-1/16 are to Mastery (the G-I Los Al Fut.), Royal Mo (the Robert Lewis) and Conquest Mo Money (the Mine That Bird), none of them slackers. Out of Tiznow and a Storm Cat mare, you would think his future is a bright one, and maybe today is the start of that at 6-1ML. With a number of them going to the lead, his stalking style might set up perfectly for this, but for his seconditis (6/0-3-1 lifetime). Doug rides Mario G for this, as he should. Lot to like today….a maiden no more?

    #7 Kimbear….Here is an interesting guy at 15-1 ML for trainer Eric Kruljac, if, for any other reason than his three works coming into this: .58.2, .59.2, .59 flat. His maiden indicates he might like the stretch to 1-1/8. While Kimbear might be destined for a career on the California lawn, he certainly appears to handle the dirt nicely and should be a must-consider for some. Joe Talamo takes the reigns.

    #4 Oxford Lane…A good looker for McPeek with nice tactical speed and, at 15-1, one who might see a very nice piece of the pie. Career of 4/1-2-1, Sunland is the fourth track he’ll see with little to believe he won’t ship well. Richard Eramia, who has been aboard for the colt’s two second place finishes, buzzes in from Oak Lawn to grab the strap.

    #6 Dilettante…..Another Lukas three-year old with a resume a half-mile long (9 career races), Dilettante, an Unbridled’s Song colt ( Distorted Humor mare), blew a tire in the SW at Oak Lawn. However, his work has been very nice since. He tries the new metallic hip of Gary Stevens for this one, and that’s good. Toss his Southwest and there appears to be some (Sun) light at the end of the tunnel for a possible top 5 finish.

    #9 Hence… Asmussen brings in a capable youngster (5/1-1-1) coming off a not-today Southwest when he finished in seventh place 13 out. However, his Beyer in that race was a respectable 81 and this lad has some good things going for him.  Local hero Alfredo Juarez, second in wins here, straddles the son of Street boss (Street Cry).

    #10 Balandeen…I might have simply skipped over this guy, but he did finish second to McCraken in the Street Sense at CD as a two-year old, so I had to look. Trainer Chris Hartman takes Channing Hill away from Sunday dinner at the Catalano household to ride. Off second place finishes, yesterday, in both the Bourbenette Oaks and Spiral at Turfway, Hill seems like the right guy to put on this 10-1 ML performer. In his second race off a three month layoff, I think Balandeen (Bernardini) moves ahead.

    #11 Total Tap….The second of two Asmussen’s in this one, the Candy Ride colt improved off a nice win last out, but has a long way to go, it appears. My guess is that the boy will find a nice life on the grass out of Candy Ride (the colt won his debut by 7-1/2 on turf), but why not take a shot? Geroux is supposed to ride coming off his second place finish on Gun Runner yesterday in the Dubai. Let’s hope he doesn’t get jet lag in the stretch as there is a chance for a slice.

     

     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 2:45 PM ET #3

    My picks:

    #1 Shareholder Value to win and place….I think the boy gets right today; off the pace and settling in for a final run. I like his mornings for this, the move to Castellano and the crowd he’s up against. Lots of tactics needed, but doable.

    $12 exacta: 1/5, 7

    $6 exacta: 1/2, 4, 12

    $3 tri: 1 with 2,4,5,7,12/2,3,4,5,7,12/2,4,5,7,10,11, 12

    GL to all

     

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    My picks:

    #1 Shareholder Value to win and place….I think the boy gets right today; off the pace and settling in for a final run. I like his mornings for this, the move to Castellano and the crowd he’s up against. Lots of tactics needed, but doable.

    $12 exacta: 1/5, 7

    $6 exacta: 1/2, 4, 12

    $3 tri: 1 with 2,4,5,7,12/2,3,4,5,7,12/2,4,5,7,10,11, 12

    GL to all

     

     
    vetdrm
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 3:05 PM ET #4

    Great stuff Mike.
    Castellano has been on a roll. Must know what hes doing.
     
     Also like Irap who adds blinkers and  Home town runner Conquest Mo Money winner of three straight.

    Conquest Mo Money  win 


    1,5,12 tri box

    1-12-with 1-5-12 w all


    gl guys

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    Great stuff Mike.
    Castellano has been on a roll. Must know what hes doing.
     
     Also like Irap who adds blinkers and  Home town runner Conquest Mo Money winner of three straight.

    Conquest Mo Money  win 


    1,5,12 tri box

    1-12-with 1-5-12 w all


    gl guys

     
    pittsburghphil
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 3:09 PM ET #5

         mikey   ...  always good stuff..  its getting  good my friend..  good luck always    .. 
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         mikey   ...  always good stuff..  its getting  good my friend..  good luck always    .. 
     
    vetdrm
    vetdrm
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 3:46 PM ET #6

    $1 Exacta box 7 all

     $1 Tri wheel  2-7  w 1,2,5,7,12  w/same
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    $1 Exacta box 7 all

     $1 Tri wheel  2-7  w 1,2,5,7,12  w/same
     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 4:25 PM ET #7

    good luck boys....it's always interesting, isn't it?
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    good luck boys....it's always interesting, isn't it?
     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 6:38 PM ET #8

    #7 Kimbear scratched...new picks for me


    $12 exacta: 1/2,5

    $6 exacta: 1/ 4, 12

    $3 tri: 1 with 2,4,5,12/2,3,4,5,12/2,4,5,10,11, 12

    $1 tri: 1,2/1,2,5,12/1,2,4,5,12

    GL to all

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    #7 Kimbear scratched...new picks for me


    $12 exacta: 1/2,5

    $6 exacta: 1/ 4, 12

    $3 tri: 1 with 2,4,5,12/2,3,4,5,12/2,4,5,10,11, 12

    $1 tri: 1,2/1,2,5,12/1,2,4,5,12

    GL to all

     
     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2017 - 6:40 PM ET #9

    Race goes off at 7.28 pm Eastern time

    #1 Shareholder Value to win and place

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    Race goes off at 7.28 pm Eastern time

    #1 Shareholder Value to win and place

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