The Wood Memorial Analysis and Picks

No scratches announced as of 10.30 EDT

Perhaps, the greatest day of Derby preps of all with the Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes with everything on the line for the hopefuls and, after today, the has-beens.

The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct is, traditionally, one of the best of the Derby preps. While this year’s entrants might get lost in the talk about Nyquist, Mohaymen and others, make no mistake that the 2016 Wood presents a decent field of competitors.

#1 Shagaf…..Overcoming a bit of 3-year old immaturity in the Gotham when he started to gawk and drift, Jockey I. Ortiz righted the Bernardini colt to close for the 1-1/2L win over two contenders, Laoban and Adventist, who is entered today in this. Chad Brown’s boy posted a very sharp work coming in and Ortiz is en fuego this week (29/9-6-2). You might get lucky getting his 2-1 ML, if local money prevails. His challenge will be to overcome the blazing start from the get-go of Matt King Coal, who is the real deal. He needs to improve today to make the wire.

#2 Adventist……I am a bit surprised the three-time starter is 10-1 ML, but his close in the Gotham in finishing third to Shagaf and the notion that he can’t get the distance tells the tale.  I like the work pattern for this, but the speed in the field might be his downfall when it comes to keeping up near the end.

#3 Trojan Heat……California shipper is easy to dismiss at 30-1, but the boy has talent (Street Cry) enough to fly cross country; with vast improvement in his last race for sharpie Patrick Gallagher. He gets veteran Gryder to hold the strap, and that’s good at the ‘A’. The .59.2 work tells me that he is building heart for the stretch and is most capable of picking up some loose change, if not a buck or two. Keep an eye.

#5 Flexibility…..Interesting at 8-1 for Chad Brown’s second participant in this one, the son of Bluegrass Cat presents some OK lines. He’s 5/2-2-0 never losing by more than 2L. That was last out in the Withers when he lost to NJ-bred Sunny Ridge, an early TC darling. Brisnet note: “Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.” Brown is 28 percent wins off the 46-90 day layoff.  Will need to better than his half-empty Withers. Mmmmmm…….

#6 Matt King Cole…..The first-time graded-staker enters the Wood at 3-1. Ask yourself what’s wrong—or right—about his line. For the record. He’s won his last two in eye-popping wire-to-wire fashion, so loose on the lead could be a possibility. However, he’s not seen the likes of Shagaf, Adventist and #8 Outwork, who really needed his last one and will might get out to challenge early. Matt has improved in each of his four races and could, again, today. Trainer Rice is being her good self these days as is jockey Jose Ortiz. Note of interest…..in each of his last four works, he was the only horse to work on those days. Not sure if there is an angle there, but interesting to me.

#7 Dalmore……I’d love to think that trainer Keith Desormeaux kicked his brother Kent off the mount after winning his last race, but I’ll guess that the jock is pre-committed elsewhere, as Junior A rides. A son of the great Colonial John, the boy has talent. Shipping in from CA, I think he’s a bit over his head, but, at 12-1 ML, let’s see.

#8 Outwork….I thought Pletcher’s entry of Outwork into the Tampa Bay Derby, just his third career start, was a smart test of the colt’s meddle. Outwork’s second place finish was a bit of a surprise. H got a very easy trip until he got caught late. Early speed and out of the 8-hole; I think he was pointed toward this in similar fashion to others that Pletch has similarly patterend as 3-year olds. He isn’t likely to get the ease of the TB Derby, but he is on the-improve. Pilot Johnny V will need to navigate with the precision of an Apollo 13 astronaut. Another Uncle Mo to the gate on May 7?

My picks

A toss up with at least 6 of the eight capable of winning…….

#8 Outwork….I will defer to my faith in Pletcher and John Velazquez in these spots, but Matt King Cole, I think, will be right there with possible wire-to-wire.

$16 exacta straight:  8-6

$8 exacta straight: 6-8

$5 exacta wheel: 6,8/1,2

$3 tri wheel: 8/1,2,6/1,2,3,5,6

$1 tri wheel: 6/1,2,8/1,2,3,5,8