The Wood Memorial Analysis and Picks

Wood Memorial 2019, G-II, 1-1/8 miles

Looks to me like one of the better Wood fields in recent years led by Tacitus, Haikal, Tax, Outshine and, two to watch, Hoffa’s Union and Final Jeaopardy. Somewhat wide-open, the race is loaded with top trainers and jockeys, and we oughta be seeing a real shootout today.

#1 Tax……The $50,000 claimer is 24^th in Derby points standings, so he needs a huge showing today. He’s won at the distance and has run it twice. Trained by the capable Danny Gargan (34% wins here this year), the son of Arch will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. Since Gargan took over last October, the colt won the Withers, last out, and finished 2^nd in the Remsen prior. Speed figures abound with his Brisnet’s at 102 in the Withers and 103 in the Remsen, but he hasn’t beat much. He needs to get off that rail and rate with Junior likely up to the task to go along with his near upfront style. He’s live in a tough field at 9/2 ML.

#2 Tacitus…..I’ve been impressed with the lad, so far, but now that they’re getting it all sorted out, and today is the day we see if he’s among this year’s elite. Tied for 9^th with 50 Derby points, which appears to be enough, I don’t expect trainer Bill Mott to use this as an exercise session. He needs the competition, and he’ll get it today. Beat Outshine last out in the TB Derby. I am a bit concerned about his speed against some of these, so the skill of Jose Ortiz will come into play as Tacitus needs to make every furlong count. The Tapit offspring is 5/2 on the ML, which, reading between the lines, might be a tad generous. Nonetheless, a big day for the big bay.

#3 Hoffa’s Union……Out of masher Union Rags, Hoffa’s Union was lit in his one and only start in a $40K Maiden at Laurel while being trained by Gary Capuano. He’s now with the hot Casse barn and gets Dylan Davis in the rack. In his maiden he boasted a 95 Beyer (97 Brisnet) figure from gate to wire winning by 15 lengths. Could he be this week’s Maximum Secutiry? Maybe, but let’s be careful, all things considered, that he is going up against a few of the best of their generation today. That said, you have to look for clues in the paddock and in the parade. Should take the lead, which could be his undoing….. or his salvation. Respected at 6/1 ML.

#4 Haikal……Impressive in the Gotham with a 102 Brisnet coming from off the pace to win by a length over former KD contender, Mind Control, and Instagram. The boy has won three in a row after a 2^nd place finish in his debut. Trainer McLaughlin won this race with Frosted in 2015, with sire, Daaher, winning the 2006 Cigar Mile. Steady jock Maragh goes for his 4^th straight on Haikal, who has put in workman-like trots coming in for this. A deserved 7/2 ML.

#5 Final Jeopardy…...Do the names Jason Servis and the West’s ring a bell? The trainer and owners of Maximum Security present a decent earner (3/2-0-1 career) in competitive underling races. The 3^rd place finish came with all sorts of trouble before finishing ITM. His first crack at the big-time, the son of Street Sense, Final Jeopardy, is poised to make some noise today and could be the upsetter. On the improve, his next feat of strength could be cracking the 100 Beyer mark in this one, given pace. He gets BIG A’s winter meet leader Manny Franco to handle the strap. At 8-1, I think he’s priced right with a real shot at he points.

#6 Overdeliver……He did best Bodexpress in his maiden, if this helps you. We found out that Bode, the second placer in the FLA Derby, might be the real deal. That said, the boy is one of Pletcher’s B-team players. Quoting Todd, “We didn't really have a firm plan after the Pasco. It's really just been based on his last three works…” Sounds more like the trainer is trolling for bass. Carmouche rides at 20-1 and part of the pace. Never dismiss Pletcher’s motives…..

#7 Not That Brady……Big Brown’s boy has seven career races, including an 8^th place finish in the Withers and a second in the Gotham. Despite a respectful 7/2-2-0 lifetime, the guy has been up and down like a poll dancer at Swifty’s Hideaway, earning a 9 Brisnet in the Withers parlayed with a nice 101 in the Gotham in a loss to Tax. Sort of a horse for the course, at 20-1, you decide. Rey Gutiierrez rides for Rudy Rodriguez.

#8 Grump Little Tots…..Another Jason Servis, the Sky Mesa colt is improving with each race. He gets Jose Lezcano, a plus for me, with the colt’s best hope to continue to improve today. While this is certainly possible, Grump would be an under, at best.

#9 Math Wizard……He’s got a hot trainer (31% wins) in Joe Saffie, as well as a hot jock this week, Eric Cancel, with 4 wins in 14 starts, but the seven-times raced son of Algorithms has a long way to go at 30/1 ML. Borderline shocker for win. His best race was an 18L win in a Gulfstream claimer.

#10 Outshine…..Pletcher is serious about this one, as the son of the great Malibu Moon has 20 points and needs it. Hence, go-to Johnny V is in the leather for the 2^nd place finisher (to Tacitus) in the Tampa Bay Derby (ridden by Rosario that day). Perhaps a tad or two behind on pure speed, this guy is more than capable of hanging back and pouncing for the win with few as tactical as this rider coming from mid-pack or so. Todd has won the Wood five times and, in speaking of the race, says his team looks forward to the added distance for Outshine. Somewhat juicy at 6-1, I think he figures big today.

#11 Joevia……An interesting proposition today, his pappy, Shanghai Bobby, was a very good young one who could have done more had he not been hurt and retired at age three. He won the Hopeful , Champagne and BC Juve. I wouldn’t say Joevia has underachieved so far, but he is most capable of doing better, and if the switch goes on, today might be the day. Second to Haikal in a $150K the Jimmy Winkfield on February 9, his work for this has been off the chart. At 30-1, I must consider for some, if not for all in a massive upset, if he does it, likely stealing it on the front end, IF he can get out of the 11 hole well. Trainer is 27% wins third race layoff, so note.

My picks:

#10 Outshine to win and place. I think he’ll be pumping up the jams in the final furlong for the win from behind

$20 exacta whl: 10/1,2

$10 exacta whl: 10/4,5

$2 tri whl: 10/1,,2,4,5/1,2,4,5,11