Travers --Analysis and Picks

Aside from the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, the Travers is my favorite race of the year, as I am sure it is with many of you. What a great field, a sort of mini-Belmont Stakes, except a better field, I dare say.

Here we go:

#1 Cloud Computing…..What to make out of him after his Jim Dandy when he finished last? This is a horse, during the Derby trail, I thought had some distance issues. I still believe that, but with Chad Brown and the great Castellano holding the strap, no way I can shied anyone who backs the animal. Keep in mind that the trainer didn’t run him the Kentucky Derby, in part, because he thought CC had a better shot at the shorter Preakness. Brown was correct with the horse being electric in Baltimore achieving his highest Beyer at 102.  I will play against because there are others more suited to the 1-1/4 miles distance. However, digest this factoid: Castellano has won five Travers Stakes since 2006.

#2 Giuseppe the Great……Easy to dismiss at 20-1 ML, but a lot to like. First of all, the lad is out of Lookin At Lucky and a Forestry mare. He is 6/1-3-1 in his career, so the colt is a decent money sniffer. GTG is trained by Nick Zito, who knows this track like the back of his hand. The horse beat Always Dreaming last out and has competed well with Practical Joke, American Anthem and other hotties. Gaffalione gets the mount and, while his record this year isn’t a head-turner, he and Nick are 20% wins in 2016-2017 and 20% wins at Spa. Distance is an issue, but the boy is capable of a piece, so take a good look for part of your wheels.

#3 West Coast….I will assume that Baffert has unraveled from his fetal position after Arrogate’s latest performance. Assuming BB is back to normal, my guess is that he’s all in on the son of Flatter for this race. West Coast comes in off a career high Beyer of 100 in the G-III Los AL Derby and Mikey Smith, who has won with the boy, takes the mount. With this field of stalkers and closers, there is no one better than Smith to pilot. Winner of 4 of his last 5, Smith has won this race 4 times with Baffert a three-time winner. Suited to the distance, West Coast appears to be able to close well at this distance. Note: Smith-Baffert have combined for 46% wins in 2016-2017. At 4-1 one, don’t trip over others while running to the window.

#4 Tapwrit…..Just a bit puzzled at the “generous” 7-2 ML odds, lest we forget that this guy was semi-dismissed by many after his Blue Grass and KY Derby losing those two by a combined 22 lengths. His Belmont was boffo, hitting a 103 Beyer, the largest speed figure in this field. If his form holds today, there is no reason he shouldn’t be right there in the stretch. Ortiz has won almost $20 million in purses this year, and, while that fact doesn’t make the horse run faster, keep in mind a jock that is killing it, knows Saratoga well, and is the only one to ride Taprwrit in the colt’s 8 race career. From drf form: “3 of 4 of his wins were produced racing within 2 lengths at 1^st call.” OK work for this, but for him to win this, Tapwrit needs to run his Belmont and maybe a tad more.

#5 Good Samaritan…..If there is an interloper in this race today, it is this guy at 5-1ML for Bill Mott coming off a win in the Alabama, the counterpart to the Travers. Talk about a horse rounding into form, this is it after a dandy Jim Dandy earning a 100 Beyer. He hit the dirt for the first time in that race after 6 grass events. A career record of 7/3-2-1, the son of Harlan’s Holiday is a must-consider for top prize as, like his daddy, he takes well to dirt. Rosario, his only career pilot, is running hot the last few weeks after an electric win in the Arlington Million on Beach Patrol.

#6 Girvin……Comes in here after beating McCraken and Practical Joke in the Haskell and finishing second in the competitive Ohio Derby losing by a nose to IRAP. Not much respect at 10-1ML, take away his Derby loss (bad foot?), and he is 6 for 6 in exactas. A son of Tale of Ekati, he gets this distance. My issue is jockey Albarado and, in this field of horses and HOF jocks, for me, it is handicapping issue. Trainer Joe Sharp has done a marvelous job with Girvin, but he and Robbie are just 6% wins in 31 starts during 2016-2017. A major piece? Certainly a possibility and, with his exacta pattern, Girvin is a must-include.

#7 Always Dreaming…..This is a great horse and one that should be one to consider today. I am going to toss his Jim Dandy….if one could toss a third place finish….as he weakened off the lead and was passed by Good Samaritan and Giuseppe the Great. I will guess that, if he doesn’t take the lead today, he will be right there after surveyibg the field, very much as he did in winning the Kentucky Derby. Now, that race in May was in the slop, so it begs the question about AD winning this, if the track is dry. Let’s not forget that he got to the KY Derby winning contentious dirt races, including the FLA Derby. At 6-1, I had to scratch my head regarding why his odds are not better than the ML assigned. I think Pletcher and Johnny V amend tactics today and keeps this guy in contention all the way.

#8 Lookin At Lee…..I still have a Jones for this guy, as I did during the trail. However, this will be his fourteenth career race with all but his first few tough, contentious and grueling. I am not saying that Lee should be shut down, but his racing path is a killer for any horse, let alone a three-year old who should have plenty of racing left in his career. Sad to see 30-1 odds, but justified the way he’s been going, and, with the competition in the WV Derby and his third place finish in that, I don’t see anything good coming out of this race for him, aside from the chance of a piece based on his big close. Asmussen’s ego plays in this?

#9 McCraken…..Another one who could outrun his 12-1ML odds based on his current form. Dump his Derby performance and note his exotics freakdom which, at 12-1, is a should-be for the betting stew for me. Few have raced against the competition like this boy and that should serve him well today. Doubters need to ask if he can he get the distance.

#10 IRAP…..Oh boy. What next? After his KY Derby blipppppp, Irap acquitted himself well with wins in the Indiana Derby and Ohio Derby. However, this ain’t those, but he competes and should today coming out of the 10 hole. His worst races have been in mud, so if this comes up dry, I think he has a fighter’s chance at pulling this off at 8-1 for Asmussen with Mario back in the saddle. I cannot dismiss for part, if not for win.

#11 Gunnevera……Sooooooo much talk the past few months about how this guy has made the metamorphosis from walking dead to the new Secretariat.  His prep for this was a win in a $107K stakes at GP, which is good for building his heart and confidence. At 20-1, with his closing style and good work for this, Gunnevera is a very much include for some. With racing luck, he could shock the world.

#12 FAYEQ…..X factor at 30-1, in 3 career races, the son of Malibu Moon is 3/1-0-1. But who are we to question Kieran M in these spots? He did beat Battle of Midway in a bland stakes last out, so maybe that means something.

MY PICKS:

#5 Good Samaratan to win and place…..graduates to BC Classic status?

$15 exacta……5/3, 6, 7, 10

$8 exacta box: 5,7

$4 exacta wheel: 3,6,10/5,7

$3 tri wheel: 5/3,6,7,10/1,3,6,7, 9,10,11,12

$1 tri wheel: 7/3,6,5,10/1,3,6,7,9,10,11,12

GL TO ALL!