The horse has almost no chance of winning. Lets start with this no horse that has won the risen star stakes has ever won the Kentucky derby. Winner of the risen star sierre leone. Bluegrass, no horse that has won the bluegrass stakes has won the Kentucky derby since 1991. 35 years. Winner of the bluegrass Sierea Leone. Kentucky derby qualifying points. No horse that has had the most qualifying points for the Kentucky derby has won the race since 2014. 10 years. Horse with the most qualifying points Sierra Leone. Closing figures from the last race. 38.02. closing figure over 38. Best horse has 36.2. Fierceness is only the 5th best finisher in the race. A closing figure over 38 more than 2 sec off the top 2 horses. Only thing it has going for him is the large heart trait. That just means its likely to win a stakes race. Out of a 20 horse field why is it the second betting favorite?