APWR

Anyone ever heard of it?

A-Power Energy Generation System.  It is a play on alternate energy sources / China / foreign economies.  Zero debt, earnings ramping up. 

Set to report earnings Tuesday with the potential down the road to make serious inroads into the wind energy sector. 

It has peaked my interest.  Seems like a good long term plays as we move into other energy sources.  Also a good diversification from my US stock portfolio.

Negatives are it has run from 3.50 to mid 12's quite fast so is it due for a pullback?

Debating now.

VH2,

Yeah I know the name..they are selling at 2 times sales and have an OK ammt of cash..it could run to 20 if oil keeps moving.

Their margins are nothing to write home about, at 10% they have to really ramp sales to have it hit the bottom line. I would like to see a longer term income statement and see how margins shift with an increase of sales..so you could determine if say a 30% in sales might bump margins up double or if they have pricing power at all.

No debt is nice, having an actual PE is also nice..

Good points Wall.  But the best part of their story is that their past revenue does not include ANY revenue from their wind turbine arm . . . that is what is really attracting them to me.  If they can begin shipping some wind turbines this year . . . and really ramp up production next year I think you have a big winner here.

Now that is a big if of course . . . because they keep delaying the shipment of these turbines.  But each turbine I believe checks in at $4 million a pop.  Factory has capacity to produce up to 300 a year. 

So . . . ever get that business up and running you have potential for $1.2 billion in additional sales each year.  Being more conservative . . . say they produce 50 next year.  That is an extra $200 million in revenue (10% margin) then $20 million to bottom line.

We shall see.  One other drawback for this company is that there is not much information on them since they are a foreign filer.

A-Power announces earnings tomorrow morning . . . I bought on the dip today.  Wish me luck.  Although it is a long term hold so if it goes down I am not too concerned.  But no one likes to see their stock go down.

I am encouraged by the up day though on a day the market got slaughtered. 

Bad earnings for Q1 but upped forecast for whole year . . . market maker taking it to the stock though in pre-market.  Yikes.  Down a buck.

We shall see how the rest of the year plays out. 

Down $1.60 now . . . and to think I thought I got a bargain at $12.15 yesterday.  Oh well.

Could have gotten in lower (and may keep dropping if they take out more stops).

So raised forecast to $.95 cents a share for the year.  2010 should be upped too.  Will surely be a rough day.  So trading at 12x earnings.  Little more than 1x sales.  Seems like a good deal to me. 

Might add some more below $11 if it gets there today.

About time APWR started flexing its muscles



up to $17.60 and still probably has room to run.  That is what a $1.5 billion contract in the U.S. will get you.

My goal for this is $40 by end of 2010.

Topped out in the mid 20's and has now retraced to high 18's . . . i'll still take it.