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I may be crazy...but I'm starting to feel a bottom is near...

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #1
no idea why, but yesterday afternoon watching cnbc/fox business with neil cavuto (who is great)

i dont think ive ever seen so much fear and strangely enough, as one of the lead bears on this board im actually starting to not feel so bearish

ill be looking for capitulation soon, something like 10b shares traded in a day...an drastic intraday V bottom and successful retest of those lows

i will buy one company, TGT. barring total system failure, TGT will double in 3 years following the capitulation

-am i crazy?
-anyone else not as bearish as they were a month ago?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #2
At last report, the Man in the Bunker was getting optimistic.

 For myself, I cannot see it.But I do not need to spot a precise bottom.

 Anytime I feel the glimmer of optimism, I manage to spot an oaf like Hoyer, Frank or Pelosi, and realize that they are supposedly the ones charged with figuring out the very problem they helped create (and did not recognize months into the meltdown).

  I hope you are right.

 The only positive sign is falling oil prices.That is it.
And that is not enough.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #3
Agreed, man.
 
There is so much fear and panic right now.
 
There are also MASSIVE short positions sitting on MASSIVE gains------they're looking to take profits.
 
Have no idea when or if, but what could touch off a short covering "panic" is any yakkety yak about "credit moving again" which will be fanned by media touts.
 
Would be short term trading only, cause I think it's early next year when the reality sets in.
 
We are close to a little rally for a while.
 
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Posted: #4
However, the more peeps talk of "capitulation," the less likely it is to occur.
 
Similarly, the more peeps trying to time a bottom by "jumping in"----it'll never happen.
 
Those are the negatives.
 
Can never go wrong with value investing if you can find value----always works over the long haul.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #5
maybe its confirmed...have some trader friends who are running screens on the widest held hedge fund owned stocks to find who will rebound the hardest when we do

also, next door (office) another resident bear is feeling a bit chipper today as well

strange times
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
You could be right.....
 
I am more on the side that a bounce is coming but not necessarily a bottom.....
 
We could see a bounce and several more years of slow decline to newer lows imo.......
 
We just have to capitalize on these moves......
 
Legend
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Posted: #7
I think that roughly 7900 was the bottom
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #8
i lived this 8 years ago with the nasdaq...margin call selling begat more margin call selling and so on

some day it will end...then we will have massive buying by longs forcing shorts to cover and push up 10-15% in 1-2 days

no joke...its coming
 
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Posted: #9
d2 - a bottom is not a number...its a feeling, or someone willing to stick their head out from the sand and not have it chopped off in 30 minutes

others will follow
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #10
To me the bottom might be if they sell this market down again to the lows today, open it sharply lower and run it positive.

Or today if they run it positive after being down almost 700.
 
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Posted: #11
WSC-
 
It's either today or Monday.  If this selling stuff goes on in to Tuesday of next week, then the world is ending.
 
And that won't happen, cause it'd be too easy.
 
Way it goes.
 
The real pain comes in December------pink slip time.
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
i lived this 8 years ago with the nasdaq...margin call selling begat more margin call selling and so on
 
then YOU should of all people realise that there will be hundreds if not thousands of "sold stocks" that will either disappear or never recover from this wreck just like many high flyer tech and internet stocks back then.
 
you may get a tradeable rally but the overall trend is DOWN.
 
Legend
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Posted: #13
sorry, "sold stocks" should be supposedly "SOLID stocks"
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #14
agreed rink...the trend is down

no bottom yet, but i rally is coming. i also expect hundreds of banks and companies to go under

get the bad capital out, consolidate and move forward
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 477
Posted: #15
Good luck KOAJ. 
 
I've been averaging down in UYG since it hit $14 with my Vegas fun money.  I fired my last bullet last night AH to get my average pps down to $11.  So you'll either find me at a Bally's $25 BJ table come the NCAA tourney in March, or a $5 table at Imperial Palace (yikes).  Either way, it's a quick trade for me, I won't get too greedy
 
Watch HBAN, anything under $7 is buy.  Doesn't matter if you go long or trade this symbol, it's a money maker.
 
Cheers.
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