Inlfation or Deflation

Question

When all is said and done the answer to the question of whether we are entering a deflationary or inflationary environment is the central one to all subsequent investment decisions.

Personally, I think we are in a depression, deflationary environment.People point to government creation of trillions of debt and state it must lead to inflation or even hyperinflation. My question, which is not rhetorical, is if say $2 trillion is created, but $15 trillion has already been lost, why would that necessitate inflation?

I have two problems: the government stats on unemployment are pure fiction and are vastly underestimated. Unfortunately, and in a sense offsetting that fact, their stats on CPI are also complete confabulations, and are also underestimated. So relying on BLS numbers is a complete waste of time, except to get a gauge on the fantasy world the bureaucrats operate in.

So the question remains:are we about to experience a serious deflationary environment, or a serious inflationary one? I rule out these cretins getting it right, as they never have...

Vermeer · Answer

When all is said and done the answer to the question of whether we are entering a deflationary or inflationary environment is the central one to all subsequent investment decisions.

Personally, I think we are in a depression, deflationary environment.People point to government creation of trillions of debt and state it must lead to inflation or even hyperinflation. My question, which is not rhetorical, is if say $2 trillion is created, but $15 trillion has already been lost, why would that necessitate inflation?

I have two problems: the government stats on unemployment are pure fiction and are vastly underestimated. Unfortunately, and in a sense offsetting that fact, their stats on CPI are also complete confabulations, and are also underestimated. So relying on BLS numbers is a complete waste of time, except to get a gauge on the fantasy world the bureaucrats operate in.

So the question remains:are we about to experience a serious deflationary environment, or a serious inflationary one? I rule out these cretins getting it right, as they never have...

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Deflation.I think China is a boiling pot ready to implode, that will add to the global deflation and will slow our GDP, as will issues in Europe.

Vermeer · Answer

That makes it 2-0 deflation...I am very interested in knowing what people here think, so anyone else?

Rush51 · Answer

I don&#x27;t know if we will go to a more deflationary environment than we&#x27;re already in... but inflation is months, if not years away. There is just too much slack in the economy (i.e. too many unemployed workers and factories sitting idle) for us to think inflation is around the corner..

theclaw · Answer

deflation before inflation

claycourtlesson · Answer

Inflation.  Starting hard by this time next year (2010).  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Look it.....how the f are we the taxpayers to pay for this farking bailout package mularkey?  Taxes.  Taxes on things you need----food, gas, alcohol, tobacco, caffeine, clothes, anything "entertainment" related.  Higher taxes, in my world, mean higher prices; thus, inflation.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;No one gives a damn about the price of farking wristwatches-----but we all give a damn about taxes put on things we like/need.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;We&#x27;re screwed-----period, end of story.  Let&#x27;s face it.

gamble04 · Answer

I am going with massive inflation.  I dont see how we can print all this money constantly and not see outrageous inflation.

umpire14 · Answer

Basic economics - deflation first then massive inflation. The dollar is becoming the world&#x27;s peso thanks to the folks in Washington.

Inlfation or Deflation

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