JOYG and BUCY

What are some people's thoughts on these two?  They both specialize in the same industry, engaging in the design and manufacture of mining equipment for the extraction of coal, copper, oil sands, iron ore, and other minerals in mining centers worldwide.

BUCY specifically does 80% of its business internationally, mainly with India and China.  So as these countries continue to seek out other energy alternatives, BUCY should thrive.  Currently trading at about 7 to 8x earnings which isn't too bad.  Has a pretty clean balance sheet too.  Nice backog in revenue. 

Only problem I have is that I may have missed the run as BUCY bottomed out at $10 and has recently run up from $20 to $25.  Still though might present some nice value here.  Other problem though is if / when the DOW and S&P pull back I could get in cheaper so maybe hold off for now?

Thoughts?  definitely a play on commodoties and a nice diversification from my US stocks.  I am leaning more towards BUCY over JOYG. 

JOYG has more cash versus debt and more revenues, but looking at price to sales and book, the BUCY looks better.

I wonder how much of a hit their sales will take in the next quarter or two.

That is my biggest concern Wall.  Yeah they have a backlog of $2.4 billion in revenue (BUCY), however, they need about $2.2 billion to sustain their current levels. From the 1Q09 earnings release the CEO stated they need about $800 million more in booked revenue to meet this years estimates.  And he didn't seem too concerned and seemed like it was a done deal!  That concerned me.  However, if when the economy turns around and if BUCY sustains these levels, I think low 20's could be a steal. 

Here is a link to the transcript from the 1Q09 earnings release.  A nice education on their business model and what is going on.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/133014-bucyrus-international-inc-q1-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo

Found the very end of the conference call chat transcript pretty interesting:

From the CEO:

"I think we're more pleased by some stability and some certainty now that's coming out of the commodity market that will help us all plan as we move through the rest of this fiscal year.We feel confident in our guidance and, as I mentioned, if that moves in a positive direction, and it could, we will readjust that at mid-year."

Guess that could be CEO speak . . . but maybe it isn't.  Thoughts?

Thinking if BUCY pulls back a tad more I will venture in to the stock.

Looking to get in around the $22 range.  Might miss it but I'll take my chances. 

Nice 8-10% pop today for BUCY and JOYG thanks to analyst upgrade.

And I missed them while penny pinching for a lower entry point.

BUCY continues to please. Over 30 today.

Yeah I f'd that one up. 

Penny pinching and missed a HUGE run.

Definitely not buying BUCY now.  I feel it is due for a pullback.  Nice trade GVK.

Missed the bounce over 34 this am. Hope my order gets filled today. I don't see this one going much higher short term.

Cashed out today at 30.76. Seems it has lost its steam and today's action spooked me.