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Palladium time to run

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Posted: #1
Palladium finally broke 300.  Look for breakouts in PAL, SWC,  IMPUY shortly. PAL also will be mining 70k oz's of gold at costs of $450 next year.  Not a bad profit for a stock with a 300 million market cap especially considering their real profits will be in Palladium and Platinum.  Bought 10k more shares today
 
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Posted: #2
So you spent 35k on one stock today?

Come on..thats just crazy and not believable.

I need to see the financials on the stock before I could buy, meaning sales and margins and debt to cash etc etc.


 
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Posted: #3
Hmm, I read it as he bought $10,000 worth of this, not 35,000...


“Bureaucracy defends the status quo long past the time when the quo has lost its status.” Dr. Laurence J. Peter

 
 
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Posted: #4
I dont comment much in these stock threads other than asking for advice but Ive been buying and selling CHK for my mom and its over 20K...
Is that really that much cash????I know alot of people sayn 10k ML bets are BS but for those of us who have had jobs for years and are buying homes we do have some kind of retirement fund going....
 
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Posted: #5
I consider 35k MORE cash in one stock to be quite substantial.

As a percentage of a portfolio, if you were diversified that would mean you have a million plus in the market.

10k shares of a 3 buck speculative stock is quite a bit to ADD.


 
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Posted: #6

Depends on portfolio size and I do not know his total portfolio. I read it as he bought $10,000 worth of the stock, not 35... in any case, it is a speculation, truly, but its risk is measurable only to the person who knows what he is truly working with.

Best of luck either way...

 
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

So you spent 35k on one stock today?

Come on..thats just crazy and not believable.

I need to see the financials on the stock before I could buy, meaning sales and margins and debt to cash etc etc.


 

WSC,

I'll fax you my trade confirm Monday if you don't believe me.  That said I have 330k in SF alone and 100k shares of QMM; so buying 31.5k in PAL isn't a crazy investment to me.  I'm 31 yrs old, no kids, small mortgage, steady 250k job, I can afford to take bigger positions in spec stocks.  I don't know about analyzing financials with junior miners though; to me it's about deposits vs. spot prices, management and potential; look at AEM for example way overvalued if it were a retailor or financial.  Diversification? unless your talking cash, bonds to stocks is a waste of time.  All diversified investors in stocks have made nothing in past 10 yrs look at every mutual funds performance as example. Anyway I hate being called a liar on message boards so I'd be glad to fax u a confirm and or let you log into my online account, shoot me an email w/ your fax or I'll scan it and or email you 

Also nice call on FSU!

 
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Posted: #8
Palladium,

I congratulate you on having a great job, I surely wasnt calling you a liar, rather it is odd to see someone post a 10k ADD trade on a 3 buck stock.

I also dont follow peoples positions enough to make a claim, but 330k in a 55 buck stock is also pretty heavy, thats 6k plus shares. QMM is a 60 cent stock, thats also a large position.

Sorry if I came off the wrong way but I dont know too many people who toss cash around like that on stocks trading at 3 bucks or 70 cents, and that includes previous clients with multi million dollar accounts.

For sure I dont need or want a confirm, I hope they move how you want them to.

One other Q...regarding these miners, do you know how much exposure they have to locking in prices in the past? Ive been reading that some companies have been hedged and are trying ot unhedge with prices going higher, which is very expensive. I would imagine companies who are cash TIGHT would be hedged as to lock in cash flows given weaker balance sheets etc.


 
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Posted: #9
At age 31, what exactly is a "steady 250K job?"  I really don't want to sound like an a$$, but I just am having a hard time believing that a 31 year old, with a "steady 250K job" would care so much about "being called a liar on message boards" that he would let a complete stanger,  "log into my online account."
I guess call me envious.  I'm a comparable age, I'm working my a$$ off with 50-60 hour weeks now, staring down 70 hours weeks in a few months, and I haven't even hit 6 figures yet.  Based on your post, I'm thinking I am in the wrong line of business.  Help a brother out.  What is it exactly that you do?
 
And all kidding aside, I have seen you post before, and I don't disagree with your investment thoughts.  I am high on PAL as well, and think it is a good investment.  The US dollar is in the $hitter, and I think precious metals are the place to be.  Up until a little over a year ago, I never considered gold/silver an investment, and now, it, coupled with various junior miner stocks, makes up about 35% of my portfolio.  I just want a little more info on the "steady $250K job.
 

 
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Posted: #10
Wake,
 
I'm a Financial Consultant and obviously I don't invest my clients money the way I do my own; from a risk standpoint maybe 2-3% in stocks like PAL/QMM.  I've been doing it for 9 years and use of products which pay residual income of .75-2%.  Having brought in 4-5mm a year into these products it generates over 500k in commisions of which I get roughly half.  As long as I keep my clients happy and outperform the indexes my income emains steady and has actually been growing. I also dabble in Multi Level Marketing  with wowgreen.net, which brings in some additional income.  If you don't mind cold calling, networking via groups like rotary/exchange clubs etc.. you can be making a 200k in a few years selling insurance or investments.  The best part is you work as much or little as you want and like everything in life the more you put in the better the results.  I almost went the corporate route too but got turned down by GE, IBM, even Thrifty Rental out of college.  As I had no other options I gave cold calling on investments a shot and it worked out over time.
 
The only reason I went to that length w/ WSC is that I have a lot of respect for him and his opinions on here and didn't want him to feel I was full of it.
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
WSC,
 
Yes Barrick got caught hedging and even one of my favoites CDE made a lot of mistakes locking in early. I have to be honest these metal ideas aren't entirely mine my mentor is a gold bug who convinced me over the years that metals were the play and while very volatile over time he's been right. As per PAL their PD mine was closed when spot prices dropped about a year ago so to me it's essentially a non expiring option on Palladium spot prices as their not hedged.  Their main mine Lac Des Llles, produced 270k oz of PD and 20k Platinum annually before their very wise move to hoard cash and shut operations a year ago.  This enabled them to essentially steal another mine from a struggling company Cadiscor, which will be online this year producing 50k oz at 450 oz unhedged and the abilty drill to find even more deposits near their current PD operations, 
Market cap around 300 mm with 74mm working capital and 47mm in cash, with no debt.  Looks good to me of course I could be wrong.  I have a ton of PAL warrants that I'm down over 50k on so I've definetly been wrong before.
 
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Posted: #12
Palladium,

Are you selling guaranteed indexed annuities?

I couldnt sell annuities because I know how they are so filled with fees and brokers make an income stream from them..but thats why I am not in the industry anymore. It takes more of a salesman than a "broker" to make money servicing clients and I would always look for the cheapest out (say instead of an annuity get someone term insurance and an index fund etc).

Sounds like you have a great gig going..a 1-2% income stream is very nice for you, that is as much as most managed acct fees, and the broker wouldnt get half..so you are sitting very nice.

Its tough researching mid to small companies and understanding their business, like in the case of PAL and QMM, you would be lucky to find anything outside of news releases and combing through financial reports, and still that isnt transparent enough.

Congrats on doing so well...

PAL warrants???? you are crazy! What is the symbol on those? Warrants on a 3 buck stock have to be pennies...
 
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Posted: #13
WS,
 
No my firm doesn't allow equity Indexed for the reasons you stated. I do have quite a bit of C-L share VA's through Jackson National, which is actually a great product. I follow a TA analyst and move to from cash to market based on TA signals which has led to huge outperformance within these annuities. Yes more expensive than ETF's or no loads as a buy and hold investement but great guarantees and I actively manage the funds within.  IMHO people invest to eventually draw income and protect their family, so why not a VA with lifetime income, death benefits and abilty to grow money in market? 
 
My other accts are straight 1% wrap accounts with unlimited trading. no loads, call writing/buying; the idea is we sell a couple calls and pay the whole fee for the year then the client can trade unlimited for free, with advice. 
 
Small positions in Managed futures jump my ROA as these pay 3-4% residual that said companies like Campbell and Grant Park have destroyed the market so I don't feel bad getting paid on these. 
 
PAL warrants was a great move DEC 07 when I bought them for a 20 bagger but then I got stupid and started buying back in and averaging in.  I have until DEC 13th for PAL to trade at 5.7 or I'm out 50k
 
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Posted: #14
PAL'
or
PAL-WT
 
No volume basically worthless.  That's why I'm buying so much of the common cause my timing was off on the warrants and obce they expire with my luck the stock will triple.
If I dumped my warrants at market tomorrow they would trade down to zero.
 
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Posted: #15
Well you still have hope that the company will extend the warrants, it happens all the time. You might want to find out the transfer agent for the company and give them a call.

In a trendless market, those VA's are ok, but the client will get ticked as they are CAPPED, so the max you can make is "X" percent and the rest is pure gravy to the annuity firm. They are also filled with surrender fees and contingencies.

To me the insurance portion is garbage, the policy in the VA is usually putrid, and if one were to purchase said policy aside from the VA they would see it does not hold that much value..I also love how most VA's tout that the insurance policy gains cash value before the end of the term..that cracks me up, of course it is another sly hook from the annuity company to keep people locked in.

Having that "guarantee" is such a hook..people who are risk averse flock to these in a down market and they dont realize that historically if you were in an annuity like that, you probably gave up 20-30-40-50% of lost returns.

It is no secret that annuities are HUGE profit makers for companies, I know too much though..and I felt very slimy promoting products which I knew were so slighted to the broker and the annuity company..thus why I could never net the living others did, I couldnt sell those and feel good about it.

Surrender fees should be completely abolished, they are highway robbery to the investor.
 
 
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Posted: #16
WSC,
 
We'll have to agree to disagree on VA's. There is no cap I've had plenty of people make money and sinply walk away with ll their gains and principal. When I started all the old timers said the same thing that crooks sell annuities and I should be building stock positions and writing options.  These same guys have churned everyone over and over charging them wire house commissions for trades that cost 8 bucks online.
 
My thought is annuities take the gambling out of investing as we know the worse case scenario future income going in and can only do better. The one I use is 2.2% all in, so not much more than most MF'S or UIT's and doesn't make a client annuitize.  Client gets quarterly lock in and 7% annual step up off the highest quarterly value each year while having abilty to invest in all sectors/asset classes. 
 
If  worse case occurs and market doesn't perform they can pull income for life off guarantee base. Regardless of performance or how much they withdraw, beneficiaries get original investment amount back.  Compare this to systematic withdrawls from funds as a VA is simply insuring mutual fund income.
 
I see colleagues selling wrap mutual funds.or ETF's at 1.25-2% where this is no guarantee and think they are scum bags.  There adding no value client could just buy ETF's or Vanguard no loads and save themselver 2-2.5%.
 
The old timers tell me about charging 2pts on muni's,10% commisions on mutual funds and  .25 a share principal mark ups on stocks and closed ends in 70-80's, so I feel like fees are much better today but people are now more aware again JMHO.
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