Poll: Has the stock market bottomed?

On 11-21-08 the SPY hit it's lowest intra day level so far in this bear market, but since then it has had higher intra day highs every day. Was 11-21-08 the bottom for the SPY?  From a purely technical charting point of view the answer is: this is a bear market rally to be short sold with SH, DOG, SDS, or SKF in order from lowest risk to highest risk. Every day higher intra day on the SPY has been greeted with lower volume each day which still indicates, so far, no follow through day (which could change on Monday, sometime next week,  or not). Even if you do not personally believe in charts, many computer programs and big money computer trades are still set by technical charts (they are watching for the follow through day to commit more buying money and thus a higher volume up day). So they are an important tools.  The fundamentals and challenges facing the American middle class consumers are still enormous to say the least. Also, another re-test of the lows and even a little lower than the intra day SPY low on 11-21-08 to shake the small investor confidence even further would not be at all suprising, if that was indeed the bottom for SPY and the start of a brand new bull market. A technical charting follow through day could still come upon us, but so far, I am not chasing this bear market rally at all, despite all the talking heads in the media. I am taking a little bit aof a longer term view, but there is still money to be made from quick trades, if you are skilled enough and have the time. The buy and hold money, until a follow through day is presented, is still to short the market on these short covering rallies. Any thoughts?

ILPRATO, did not buy short etf's all at once. That is smart of you. I am starting to like to buy a short etf very soon, but I will only add more to my position if my trade is working and making money for me. Otherwise, I'll put a stop in if my trade goes against me too much. I am really not impressed with the talking media heads and this bear market bounce off from the lows on 11-21. Still, no big money buying conviction of a solid and impressive follow through day and the beginning of a brand new bull market off from the lows, just a lot of big media lip service about the rally. I am getting very itchy to pull the trigger on my buy short etf. I have really wanted to get SPY 9500 to buy my short etf, that would be a huge gift and my personal stubborness probably paid off handsomely, though SPY 9000 looks good to short now. I will go buy SKF heavily at SPY 9500, but I do not think I will get that, so I will probably start buying a more conservative position (not my whole position)  for SH in this area. I really want 9500 (very top of the range, possibly some sucker little guy buyers would be drawn into the bear trap at that point) though for a great trading more aggressive buy etf short. If I miss a trade and it goes lower again, I'll still have all of my cash, and let's face it. This is a tough market, and having cash is not a bad thing until the market gets easier some distant day, or I get another bear market bounce to short again off from brand new lows. Three words I love and hate. Patience, Patience Patience.   

Yes, safest to just buy the short etf's  SH and DOG after bear market rallies because these track the S&P 500 and the DJIA respectively, followed by SDS which also follows the S&P 500. It is just more leveraged up. Lastly and most risky is SKF which is leveraged up and follows a basket of financial stocks. The higher the risk the higher the reward. These 4 are all safer than fighting with a bear when purchased in bear market rallies (do not chase them and do not buy all at once), until this market shows more signs that we are beginning a brand new bull market. So far, no way we have begun a brand new muti-year bull market in stocks, and fighting a bear can be hazardous to your health and portfolio IMO.

Stuckey, nice call on DCA. Congrats. What is your exit strategy on DCA? Do you have a price point, following stop, sell when(if, but probably will) SPY hits 90 or 95? Today sure was positive to rally on such bad news (probably trying to bear market rally up to draw some of the bond bubble money buying back into stocks before they sell again). I still haven't seen an impressive follow through day off from the lows on 11-21 signaling the beginning of a brand new multi-year bull market though. I am happier on days like today, and I sure do hope we get a multi-year bull market the sooner the better, just don't think this is it yet though IMO.

On 12-08-08 the NYSE did have a follow through day. It just did not seem like an impressive follow through day (would've preferred stronger up volume with the up price action to really signify a brand new start to a multi-year bull market). That being said, this market just wants to go up no matter how bad the news is. Now we see why, the Fed pulling out all the stops today has evidently been in the works for weeks behind the scenes for the biggest money to trade appropriately. SPY 100 looks to be in the cards now. It seems like the best way to trade this market is between the new range that the market will now establish (Don't fight the Fed). IMO we have seen the lows of the range on 11-21-08, but anything around SPY 80-85 should be a good bottom, and SPY 100 or where ever we learn is the new top of the range ( we are still waiting for our new top of the market referenece point)  when it sells off 10 % from there will be our new top of the range. We are clearly historically in brand new territory with these policies, conditions, socialism, ect. So who really knows at the the end of the day? Give the crack addict a big ol' drawer full of crack and the market will almost immediately price in and/or over shoot to the upside on the euphoria. Inflation on imports (oil, USO, very conservative buy and hold play here, I am buying and holding USO right here to help hedge some of my dollars against probable future inflation) has to be in the cards sooner or later with the inevitable decline in the dollar. It is what it is. It doesn't matter whether it is good or  bad. Just can't fight the Fed right here, and should just wait for pullbacks to buy, though this days euphoria, courtesy of the Fed, should create a higher high in the short run of at least SPY 100 IMO.

Hate to say it but the worst isn't over.   Going lower after the new year.  Things gonna get worse.    This could be the big one

Just my unbiased guess,opinion, ect. I think the dollar will fall (obviously), but the stock markets will go up to a higher range, but stocks will be worth less or worthless (depending on how you look at it with the falling dollar). Will the rest of the world join the USA (once again as the USA takes the initial lead) in worldwide coordinated rate cuts?  GLD, can't argue with that as an inflation hedge against the falling dollar. USO will have it's day as an inflation hedge also. The dollar is crashing (even more bad news) and  still the SPY barely goes down today. Why? Does the big money already know about something else in the works behind the scenes?

seems to me that right now the relationship between the USO (down 3.54 a barrel today) and the dollar is severed...I dont get it, all I can think of is the lack of demand is so strong that the devaluation of the dollar and supply cuts still cant' match the lack of demand pushing it down.....Now I do not expect it to be severed forever (obviously), but for the time being something is seriously out of wack.....also I think when the rest of the world joins us slashing the rates to zero we will really see GLD take off...Correct me if I'm wrong here please (and I mean that)..but aren't all these banks awash with paper money now after Helicopter Ben came in to save them? And with them not lending any of it out to consumers or other banks, doesnt' it make trying accurately assess the value of the dollar that much more difficult? Won't all that cash being hoarded by the banks have to get into circulation before we really understand the true annhilation of the dollar?

at least gas is cheap now-they been robbing us

very close to a bottom, if not in already

Yes, it all depends on when the banks start lending to consumers who have jobs. Now, if the banks do not start lending and the whole system just implodes, then probably a hell of a lot more of these arses are going to pay a visit the cage bar hotel. Seems to me that some of these bankers have a real vested interest in getting this systemic damage control game figured out. Paulson gave them the money to try to get them to save all  their asses. Time will tell? Oil was just a game at $140+ and oil is just a game at $40. Fundamental worldwide oil demand has not dropped that much compared to the pricing stock market/commodities gambling game. Oh, that form of internet gambling is legal, but I can't bet on a sports team.

The stock market is not even close to a bottom.

 

The economy couldn't be worse.  As negative on the future as I have been...........it's not enough.

 

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, to like about the economic prospects for the future when you accept the fact that hyperinflation is coming the very split second growth begins to occur again.

 

And just think............this 150% inflation from now until EOY 2014 was done for 2 reasons:

 

1) Bail out a bunch of farking bankers.

2) Take away individual freedoms.

 

What a fabulous world.

 

Merry Christmas 2008.......................