US Property Investing

Query:

With property prices so low across the states what are your thoughts on buying up, do you think prices will recover eventually. Are there certain cities that might recover quicker than others or cities to stay away from?

Sorry if i sound ignorant but I'm not aware of the intricacies of the US economy as far as recovery after the GFC.
 

I would think that the areas which have more underlying demand longer term and have been hit hardest would bounce more and give you more opportunity for a return.

Places like Phoenix and Vegas have been hit very hard, but have underlying demand which might not exist in other markets, plus they have been hit the hardest in the country.

The real bargains in Arizona arent around as much as last year, I see prices firming in the markets I watch, but if you are willing to go to the outskirts of the metro area there are still some great deals to be had.

Places like Phoenix and Vegas have been hit very hard, but have underlying demand which might not exist in other markets, plus they have been hit the hardest in the country.

some real estate agents my wife knows say that what demand there is here in Las Vegas is from either retired Cali people looking to escape the "people's republic's" taxes OR northern US and Canadian "snow birds".

BUT I think it's going to be quite awhile before we get any meaningful rise in house prices. we went up SO high SO fast and are SO overbuilt that it probably will take at least a decade and THEN we may NEVER get back to what it was at the top.

I look at Las Vegas real estate like the NASDAQ "Dot Bomb" bubble in the late 90's. there WILL eventually be a recovery BUT probably will NOT came back all the way.

still and all. there will be good money made IF you can buy right.

I would focus on the places more sustainable for life - Which means no gulf coast properties or desert southwest.

Thanks for all your responses, much appreciated.

 

stop speculating, you give dangerously bad information. 'real underlying demand'? Like the silver thread, you just make this crap up in your head.

Mikado nailed it, because the OP asked about property as an investment. Who would want to invest in Arizona or Vegas now that we have entered the age post peak cheap oil?  buy low, in an area with job growth and steady employment, preferably an established community with housing units built in the last century so you don't have the worries 21st century homes will have with decay. avoid HOA's at all costs

BE,

Have you ever lived in one of the areas I discussed? What was the underlying point I was trying to make? Your depths of stalking and attacking are improving every day, congratulations.

Do you understand the demographic demand that Arizona and Vegas has? Of course not..my comment was not in any regard to speculation, in fact YOU are speculating much more than I am, I have owned the same home for almost a decade, I never got into the "get me money" refi game, but you did. So who is speculating?

If someone (the thread creator) was interested in INVESTING in real estate, the comments I made were correct, you look for areas that have been hit hard, yet have UNDERLYING demand intact. Do you understand what that means?

Arizona specifically has multiple sources of demand for residential ownership, of course retirees either own vacation homes or just outright move due to the climate and the infrastructure developed here which suits their needs (inlaws did just that), as the population ages and retires, the demand for ownership in Arizona will keep steady. Vegas of course is smaller but has a similar demand on a smaller scale.

If you are looking to invest in real estate, you want to have underlying demand and the opportunity for growth. I also completely disagree with you about HOA's, how many properties have you owned which had HOA's? I imagine that number is quite low being that Lancaster PA is not the HOA capital of this country..lol

I consider HOA's to be extremely beneficial and if run properly they add value to the homeowner, maintain nice community features and keep a certain profile from behaving in a way which can bring down the value of the community.

I am not thrilled paying HOA, yet having a maintained, painted common area with parks, fresh green belts, enforced property standards is worth the expense to me personally.

Post peak cheap oil does not change an aging demographic, as people age they tend to migrate to certain areas and decades of statistics show Arizona to have that underlying demand.

Your depths of stalking and attacking are improving every day, congratulations.



stalking and attacking??

I post in the same thread you post in (on a topic that i'm always drawn to like a magnet) and have an opposing opinion of yours, and you lash out that i am stalking and attacking. You have serious issues



Do you understand the demographic demand that Arizona and Vegas has? Of course not..my comment was not in any regard to speculation, in fact YOU are speculating much more than I am, I have owned the same home for almost a decade, I never got into the "get me money" refi game, but you did. So who is speculating?



demographic demand? What that both places are dependent on frivolous consumption, with basically no manufacturing base, no means to food, energy, and water?  Maybe you haven't noticed but in the time since Vegas came to be, more states have welcomed casinos to their localities then those that haven't.

Do you understand the overcapacity (relative to livability and demand) in those areas? OF COURSE NOT. BUT i know you are relying on your lies, which is why you are in favor of all this gov't funny money attempts to redirect house prices back to unaffordable levels.

Of course not..my comment was not in any regard to speculation, in fact YOU are speculating much more than I am, I have owned the same home for almost a decade, I never got into the "get me money" refi game, but you did. So who is speculating?

not in regard to any speculation? you are taking a stance on the future direction of the housing markets, that is speculation whether you feel they go up, down, or sideways from here. I am not speculating, and you know this, you have been stalking my 1000's of posts and threads about housing since the first one, where i said I bought my first house. Re-financing from 7.125% down to 5% is not speculation, it is a smart financial decision. Continuing to make payments on an underwater mortgage, IS however speculation. You are speculating that the gov't will continue to bail out mortgage debtors until your infestment get's it's head above water.



If someone (the thread creator) was interested in INVESTING in real estate, the comments I made were correct, you look for areas that have been hit hard, yet have UNDERLYING demand intact. Do you understand what that means?

Investing is buying low/affordable and doing your best to ensure a solid ROR. if you are looking for an area that has been 'hit hard' and consider 'underlying demand' to be intact, then you are speculating about the futurem not to mention it sounds like you feel that buying property is all about a price. Your statement is leading, suggesting that the concept of property investing relies on rising prices. NOT GONNA HAPPEN BUD.

no need to respond to your psychobabble about your affinity towards HOA's. I feel they are obtrusive to wise investing, only adding fixed costs, and all that tripe about paint and "keep a certain profile from behaving in a way which can bring down the value of the community" is just that, tripe. There is local laws that prevent 'houseowners' from having their property within a community, deg-regrade their neighbors property.

Here we have a beautiful community with parks and all that other emotional, non investment speak, stuff. And guess what, NO HOA

HOA can accelerate downside risk, because foreclosure's become more burdensome to the rest of the pack that is stuck paying all those exorbitant fees for that crap.

BE,

Thanks for the 10 paragraphs, just a quick question..

Have you ever owned a home in an community where there is an HOA?

What do you consider "exhorbitant" (spelling wrong) fees?

How many people do you know that experienced accelerate (spelling) downside risk because of these fees?

Do you understand that an HOA is run by elected residents of the community? The bylaws are voted on by home owners in the community?

All P&Ls are viewable and sent to members of the community, I see what money is spent for what and to whom, I can attend meetings and be on the HOA board if I want to.

You have never been in an HOA, you have no idea how a HOA works, and positively a HOA (in general) does NOTHING in a negative fashion towards pricing, in fact if anything it adds value by having building and community standards.

I pay less for HOA per month than I do for internet, cell phone service, any utility or even landscaping.

I also would not expect a rural town like Lancaster to need an HOA, I would imagine there are very few there, which is good for you I suppose.

Just an FYI, the demographic demand I am discussing in regards to Vegas has absolutely nothing to do with excessive consumption or casinos.

When gambling become legalized across the country (which it enviably will) Vegas will probably take a larger dive than what we are seeing now with just the housing market.

where have you been the last two decades? there is a LEGAL CASINO, either indian gaming or because the state went legal, within driving distance of just about EVERYONE in the United States ex Hawaii. the ONLY advantage Nevada has is legal sports betting and that is NOT that big a deal because people will find ways around the restrictons on internet gaming AND that will probably eventully become legal too. 

if you have cash you might as well buy if your getting it for a low price. the housing market will go back to normal one day just as soon as the houses prices get to a comfortable level and all the people that bought houses when they shouldn't have lose it or sell it. and yeah some cities are ahead of others when it comes to this happening you just have to listen to the Realtor or watch prices to see how the market is around you.

I see problems ahead at least here in south Florida. The avg. age in my gated golf course community is around 70 years old. There are hundreds of these communities just like mine in Florida. From Jacksonville to Miami and Tampa to Naples. In 15 to 20 years, as the current owners die off, there is going to be a huge number of condos/homes put onto the market. I just dont see the baby boomers picking these properties up. They do not and will not have the funds available in retirement to live the lifestyle of the post WWII generation. Stats for baby boomers retirement accounts currently are showing some really weak numbers, I mean really bad.

real estate prices resume the second leg of the correction

link

Now would be a good time to start shopping and saving up a DP for a purchase two years down the road, as many of even the hardest hit areas are still projected to see another 20% haircut

link


underlying demand, shmemand. There are two sides to every story, and amazingly a generation programmed in supply side economics, fails to see the surplus on the supply side. This will eventually work itself out, but gambling that prices stabilize or move upward from here, is just that, gambling.  Builders have taken a break here since the peak, so as time pass, we will consume SOME of that inventory. Hopefully our Keynesian masters realize that bulldozing a large bloc of that inventory would help the cause, hell i bet they are pissed we haven't had some major hurricanes or wild fires to wipe out a bunch of these worthless houses that are killing any chance of upward momentum in the housing market

oh yea, and then there is interest rates,,,,,,,,,,,

GREAT post & perfect response to post #8. I was going to respond to post 8, but wallstreet's response said everything I was going to say and then some. In the last 7 months I have purchased 12 cash investment condos in Arizona @ an avg price of $25,000.  I've had NO PROBLEM renting & have a great cash flow. Most people would be surprised.

Go & purchase a condo in AZ for 25k & rent it out for $800+ a month, as I've been doing. After tax, HOA fees, property mgmt, you're netting $600+/month on a 25k purchase.Put 25k in a savings/moneymarket account & you make NOTHING.  There will always be an underlying demand and opportunity for growth in Arizona, no question about it.