Sometimes on this forum people think to hard and try to figure out where the "smart money" is at and how much Vegas knows, so they go all contrarian. Case in point, if you didn't make an absolute boatload of money on Utah v Oregon, then you over thought it. Utah giving under 3 pts when you just had a dress rehearsal, and they're not going to cover 3? If you couldn't see that the Ducks had no answer for the Utah defense and that Utah had a major axe to grind with Oregon, then you didn't watch the first game. But yet, many sit back and over think it. I was not just betting pre-game but I think I had 6 in-game bets. Don't get me wrong, there are fluke games where I'll completely ignore an earlier head to head, but that was so obvious.
With the Tide vs Cincy we don't have them playing head to head. Cincy had a very experienced defense and good QB. Alabama no longer needs style points....they're in. Do you think that Saban wants this game within 2 scores at any point? I think the line should be -20.5, but you can get it at -13. Of course Cincy is going to have more motivation that can be contemplated as a non-major. They're also going to get their arses whooped. Bama is not going to look past them, it's too important. Alabama wins 38 - 10 or so. I am giving the 13 pts and piling on large. Made a good chunk this year and putting nearly everything on it. Ridder is not going to be able to keep up by a long shot.
But hey, keep thinking your the "sharp money." It'll be a big payday for us squares.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Sometimes on this forum people think to hard and try to figure out where the "smart money" is at and how much Vegas knows, so they go all contrarian. Case in point, if you didn't make an absolute boatload of money on Utah v Oregon, then you over thought it. Utah giving under 3 pts when you just had a dress rehearsal, and they're not going to cover 3? If you couldn't see that the Ducks had no answer for the Utah defense and that Utah had a major axe to grind with Oregon, then you didn't watch the first game. But yet, many sit back and over think it. I was not just betting pre-game but I think I had 6 in-game bets. Don't get me wrong, there are fluke games where I'll completely ignore an earlier head to head, but that was so obvious.
With the Tide vs Cincy we don't have them playing head to head. Cincy had a very experienced defense and good QB. Alabama no longer needs style points....they're in. Do you think that Saban wants this game within 2 scores at any point? I think the line should be -20.5, but you can get it at -13. Of course Cincy is going to have more motivation that can be contemplated as a non-major. They're also going to get their arses whooped. Bama is not going to look past them, it's too important. Alabama wins 38 - 10 or so. I am giving the 13 pts and piling on large. Made a good chunk this year and putting nearly everything on it. Ridder is not going to be able to keep up by a long shot.
But hey, keep thinking your the "sharp money." It'll be a big payday for us squares.
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