Old Hammy

Early Saturday pick: Tex A&M down to +9 in semi-neutral site game against #1 Houston at Toyota Center Arena.  Both teams are physical with a big emphasis on defense and rebounding, and both have xlnt coaches who know each other well.  Points will be hard to come by - Ken Pom has it Houston 72-63.  Both are xlnt in adjusted offensive efficiency with A&M #8 and Houston #18, but neither is in the top 100 in either 2 pt or 3 pt fg%.  The one big shooting advantage is FTs where A&M is not real good at #102 (73.3%) but Houston is awful at #322 (64.8%).  There is a big disparity in schedule strengths with A&M at #15 and Houston #269 and that could be impacting some of their stats.  Houston is one of the few remaining unbeatens but their biggest win is #37 Utah.  A&M is a veteran team of Juniors and Seniors with a lot of weapons.  They have 3 losses against very good teams but have 7 wins including a win against Ken Pom's #27 Ohio State away and #19 Iowa State on a neutral court.  A&M has 6 different guys who have already gone for 18 pts in one or more games.  One of their key players (Radford with a best game of 21 pts) was out for three games with an injury but returned in shortened minutes in the disappointing 6-pt home loss to Memphis the last game.  He should bet at full strength for this one.  9 guys average double digit minutes and two more average 8 and 6 min. each.  They have the preseason SEC player of the year in Wade Taylor who had a rare off game with 9 points in the Memphis loss.  They turned it over too much, played uncharacteristically sub-par defense, got beat on the boards and shot it poorly.  Yuk.  Buzz Williams should have them fully focused with a chance to end Houston's unbeaten streak against a less-than-challenging schedule.  They should keep it close here in a hard-fought physical battle.