Cormier Fight Prediction

Initially I felt that Daniel Cormier should be able to use his wrestling to grind out another easy win, but after spending a significant amount of time researching this fight, I have now come to the conclusion that the odds are totally inaccurate. I personally believe that Alexander Gustafsson should be closer to a 1.80 | -120 favourite, because he has almost every single advantage I look for when betting on a fighter apart from pure wrestling.

Many people will disagree with my bet on this fight, so I’m going to break this match up down into far greater detail than I normally would. I’m hoping that this will help you understand the reasons why I feel Alexander Gustafsson is such a great bet and I also hope it will encourage you to place a bet on him yourself, so that we can all hopefully make some money on saturday night.

Here are the reasons why I recommend betting on Alexander Gustafsson to beat Daniel Cormier at UFC 192…

Daniel Cormier is just 5 ft 11 inches tall compared to Alexander Gustafsson who towers over him at 6 ft 5. As you can see in the picture above, Cormier and Gustafsson look like they are a couple of weight classes apart and that’s largely because their wingspans and height are very different. Daniel Cormier has the height and wingspan of a Welterweight / Middleweight, whereas Alexander Gustafsson has the perfect wingspan and height for the Light Heavyweight / Heavyweight division.

Weight classes exist in combat sports, because the bigger you are, the bigger the advantage you have. There are almost no exceptions to this rule, but some people will argue that Alexander Gustafsson’s height will make it easier for Daniel Cormier to get underneath him and take him down. This is true to some extent, but Gustafsson’s long limbs will also make it easier for him to scramble back to his feet. His long limbs will also help him to create a wide base against the cage, which will make it hard for DC to take him down when he puts Gustafsson’s back against the cage. This is an important factor to consider in this fight, because Cormier is not the kind of wrestler who completes takedowns by shooting in on people. Most of DC’s takedowns come from the clinch position against the cage and Gustafsson’s long frame and wide base will make it hard for DC to take him down from this position. Gustafsson’s long limbs will also open up more submission opportunities on the ground.

Gustafsson’s length also means he has a huge 7 inch reach advantage over Daniel Cormier. This means that Gustafsson will be able to land strikes from positions where Cormier cannot counter him. In order for Cormier to land on Gustafsson, he’s going to have to apply a lot of pressure, close the distance and put himself in positions where he’s going to have to take damage to enter striking range. Gustafsson does a very good job of landing powerful strikes whilst moving backwards or circling away from danger and this isn’t something that Daniel Cormier has had to deal with against any other opponent. Gustafsson is a master of distance and he’s very good at keeping his opponent’s on the end of his strikes. I believe Gustafsson’s reach gives him a huge advantage in this fight.

Gustafsson’s height and long limbs will also make it easier for him to land head kicks and knees. This is a significant advantage in this fight because Cormier likes to spend a lot of time dirty Boxing in the clinch. Gustafsson’s dirty Boxing is very good and he has the added advantage of being about to pull Cormier’s head down in the clinch, whilst landing powerful knees to the head.

. MMA is a young man’s sport…

Athletes hit their prime between the ages of 27 and 32. This might go some way towards explaining the reason why 8 out of the 11 current UFC Champions are all aged between 27 and 32. The only exceptions to this rule are Daniel Cormier, Fabricio Werdum and Robbie Lawler who is just outside of his prime at 33 years old.

Fighter’s start to rapidly decline after the age of 32 because their body starts to produce less Testosterone. Less Testosterone means that their competitive drive decreases, their aggression levels reduce and they also don’t have the motivation to train as hard as they used to. Daniel Cormier is now 36 years old, whilst Alexander Gustafsson is currently in his prime at just 28 years old. This means that there is an 8 year age gap between them. The younger fighter wins around 67% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.

Age is an important factor to consider in MMA because years of gruelling competition takes it toll on a fighter’s body. Daniel Cormier has competed in 17 pro MMA fights, as well as hundreds of wrestling matches throughout his career. No amount of conditioning, PEDs or Nutrition is going to be able to change the fact that Cormier’s body is currently on a heavy decline. You cannot do anything to cheat mother nature and Cormier’s performances will get significantly worse with every passing year.

Cormier has looked great throughout his career, but he doesn’t have that much experience competing against fighter’s who are in their prime. Out of the 11 fighters he has competed against under the Zuffa banner, only 3 of them were under the age of 33. One of those fighter’s was Dion Staring, the other was Jon Jones and the other was most recently Anthony Johnson. I feel that this is an important factor to consider, because it’s a lot easier to demonstrate grappling control against older guys like Dan Henderson, Roy Nelson and Frank Mir than it will be to outgrapple a strong 28 year old fighter who is currently competing in his prime.

Grappling

Many people see Daniel Cormier’s high level wrestling as his key to victory, but Alexander Gustafsson has really good MMA wrestling and excellent takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that he has the 3rd highest takedown defence in UFC Light Heavyweight history. This means that Gustafsson has defended 86% of all takedowns across 11 fights in the UFC and his length, footwork and distance control makes him extremely difficult to take down and even harder to keep down.

Daniel Cormier has high level wrestling, but most of his takedowns come from the clinch. You’ll very rarely see him shooting in on his opponent’s from distance. This is going to cause him big problems in this fight, because Gustafsson is excellent at disengaging from the clinch and circling out of danger. It’s really difficult to tie Gustafsson up and DC is going to have to use up an incredible amount of energy if he wants to try and keep this fight in the clinch.

Gustafsson’s long limbs also make it easy for him to create a wide base when his back is against the cage. This makes it difficult for his opponent’s to complete double leg takedowns, because his wide base makes it difficult for them to lock their hands together. He can also use his long arms to post on the canvas of the cage and scramble back to his feet if his opponent tries to drag him to the ground with a less effective single leg takedown.

Some wrestlers have a strong, smothering style of grappling where you can’t get them off you if they gain top position. Cormier doesn’t have this style of wrestling and his top control doesn’t appear to be that strong. Cormier moves around a lot when he’s in top position and he offers up plenty of opportunities for scrambles. Gustafsson does a great job of looking for openings and scrambling back to his feet and I don’t believe Cormier will be able to control him on the ground for very long.

Daniel Cormier is not a submission grappler and I do not believe that he poses any submission threat to Gustafsson. If anything, Gustafsson could use his long limbs to catch DC in something. Either way. I feel a submission win for either guy is extremely unlikely.

If you think Gustafsson should be the favorite you must have made a substantial bet on him then at +2xx, right? What odds did you lock in and how much did you bet?

Striking

Daniel Cormier has good Boxing but he’s going to find it difficult to get inside Gustafsson’s 7 inch reach. I also believe that Cormier is going to find it difficult to deal with the diverse range of strikes that Gustafsson likes to throw. I don’t believe that Cormier is going to be able to land many significant strikes in open exchanges, but I do believe that Gustafsson will be able to pick him off with head kicks, long jabs and powerful hooks.

Cormier’s biggest strength when it comes to striking is his dirty Boxing. His ability to land powerful uppercuts in the clinch is impressive, but uppercuts in the clinch become significantly less effective when you’re fighting a tall guy, because the impact reduces the higher the point of impact. In order for Cormier’s uppercuts to work, he’s going to have to pull Gustafsson’s head down and control his head with one hand. Gustafsson is so good at disengaging from the clinch, that I don’t believe Cormier is going to be able to control him with just one hand. For that reason, I don’t believe that Cormier’s dirty Boxing will be that effective in this fight.

At just 5ft 11 inches tall, DC is a sitting duck to Gustafsson’s dangerous head kicks and nasty knees in the clinch. Gustafsson has finished guys in the past with knees in the clinch and I believe there’s a very good chance that he can badly hurt DC in the same way. Many people anticipate that this fight will go the distance, but I believe there’s a good chance Gustafsson wins this fight by knockout or TKO after landing some nasty knees to the head in the clinch position.

I give Gustafsson a significant advantage when it comes to striking because he fights very long and he can use his range to land on Cormier from positions where Cormier cannot counter. His ability to land nasty knees in the clinch also make him very dangerous in the position in which Cormier will most likely want this fight to take place. DC will be moving forward for the entire duration of this fight and I believe this will play right into the hands of Gustafsson, who will be able to use his high level footwork to pick DC apart from the outside.

Conditioning

UFC 192 is the first event where fighters will not be allowed to use an IV to rehydrate after the weigh ins. Experts have said that it can take upto 72 hours to rehydrate naturally, which means we could see some very dehydrated fighters on Saturday night.

Cormier and Gustafsson are obviously two of the fighter’s who will suffer the most from these new rules because they’re competing in a 5 round title fight and they both cut a lot of weight. I believe that the new IV rules will favour Alexander Gustafsson because he’s younger, fresher and his body is in better condition. He’s also a lot leaner than Daniel Cormier and he doesn’t appear to carry that much excess body weight.

Weight cutting gets harder as you get older and at 36 years old Daniel Cormier has never found weight cutting easy. I believe the inability to rehydrate using an IV could have a very adverse effect on his performance.

You also have to take into consideration the fact that Daniel Cormier slowed down considerably in the 3rd round of his fight against Jon Jones. It’s also worth noting that Jones chose to compete with Cormier in the clinch, where Cormier feels the most comfortable. Gustafsson will not fight Cormier in the clinch. Cormier will have to come out of his comfort zone in order to win this fight and that will mean he’ll have to chase Gustafsson around the Octagon. This will involve him fighting in a way that he’s not used to, which often means he’ll be using a lot more energy.

Conclusion

I believe that Daniel Cormier will apply a ton of pressure to Alexander Gustafsson from the very first second of this fight. He’s going to want to start strong and impose his will. Cormier is going to try very hard to grab a hold of Gustafsson and put his back against the cage. I expect him to have some success with clinch work, cage control and takedowns in the first couple of rounds, but I also expect Gustafsson to circle out of danger, disengage from the clinch quickly and pop right back up to his feet if he does get taken down.

he's not really posting his analysis or thoughts, he's just copying/pasting a "free bet" from some stupid tout (or he actually is the stupid tout)

https://mmabettingtips.com/free-betting-tips-picks-predictions-ufc-192-cormier-gustafsson/
 

I believe that Cormier will start to fade when he realises that he cannot control Gustafsson for any lengthy period of time. Cormier’s fight against Jon Jones was fought at a very slow pace, because Jones chose to fight Cormier in the clinch. The clinch is a very tiring position to compete in, but it’s where Cormier feels the most comfortable. During that fight, DC was given opportunities to catch his breath in the clinch, but he won’t have that same luxury on Saturday night because he’s going to have to work very hard to stop Gus from disengaging. I believe Cormier is going to get very tired and very frustrated when Gustafsson continues to stuff his takedowns and quickly disengage from the clinch position.

Based on what I have seen in my research, I believe that this fight will be very close. Gustafsson is not a rock solid bet by any means, but at odds of around 4.00 | +300, I believe that he is one of the best bets of the year. I want to make it clear that I’m not placing a flier on a good value underdog, because I genuinely believe Gustafsson has the best chance of winning this fight. He has the advantage when it comes to striking, he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight on his terms and his age and size give him a significant edge over the older, smaller and slower Daniel Cormier.

By ALLSOPP

Odds on Cormier are coming down from opener!!

I parlayed Cormier earlier in the week, but after reading this, i am
not very confident off the play i made.

I took Gus anyways

Hedged back i unit on Gust +235 , had two parlays with Cormier, so if Cormier does win ,will win i unit, if he losses
will cover my 2 parlays and make some change.

ya already hitting Gus just not sure how much yet depends on a few things for me