Dillashaw Fight Info

Renan Barao blames losing the UFC Bantamweight title on a strike that TJ Dillashaw landed early in their first fight. Whilst the strike could be the reason why Barao lost his belt, it doesn’t explain why Dillashaw was comfortably beating him up until that point, why he couldn’t make weight for their rematch and why he also put in a lack lustre performance against Mitch Gagnon in Brazil.

I don’t believe that Barao will beat Dillashaw in this rematch because Dillashaw is too fast, too well rounded and too active. Dillashaw can fight at a very high pace for 5 hard rounds and I don’t believe Barao’s tough weight cut to 135 pounds gives him the energy he needs to keep up with Dillashaw for 25 minutes.

Dillashaw and Barao both have incredible takedown defence and poor offensive wrestling, which means this fight will most likely be contested standing up. Dillashaw has defended 100% of all takedowns in the UFC and Barao has defended 96%. This means it’s very unlikely that either guy will be able to get this fight to the ground.

TJ Dillashaw lands more strikes per minute than anyone else in the UFC and he lands around 40% more strikes per minute than Barao. In their first fight TJ Dillashaw landed 169 strikes, whilst Barao managed to land just 68. This means that TJ outlanded Barao by more than 100 strikes. This is a huge deficit and whilst I have no doubt Barao will show up more prepared this time around, he simply doesn’t throw with a high enough volume to compete with these numbers. It’s possible that Barao could have improved since their last fight, but TJ will have improved too and I don’t see how Barao will have improved enough to significantly change the outcome of their rematch.

TJ Dillashaw now has the added experience of competing in two Championship fights and he already has a title defence under his belt. Fighters tend to improve and develop significantly after winning a title and I expect Dillashaw to look considerably better in this rematch than he did in their first fight.

Barao struggled to deal with Dillashaw’s speed and volume in their first matchup and I don’t see what adjustments he could make to change how this rematch plays out. It’s possible that Barao could hurt TJ bad or knock him out, but it’s unlikely because Dillashaw has excellent defence and he’s constantly moving. It’s really hard to hurt a guy that stays light on their feet and constantly moves because it’s difficult to time them and catch them clean. TJ has shown throughout his career that he’s very durable and I believe it’s unlikely that Barao finishes him inside the distance.

There are people that believe Renan Barao has a good chance of beating TJ Dillashaw at UFC on FOX 16, but those people are probably assessing the fight based on the career history of both fighters as opposed to how they match up skill for skill. All the numbers point towards TJ winning and a 45% return on our money seems like a great deal. I think Dillashaw is a great bet because we’ve already seen him dominate Barao before and I don’t see what changes Barao could make to change significantly change the outcome of this rematch.