Posted:
#1
I've been excited for this card since it was announced, and yes the main event is lacking, but from top to bottom I can't remember a card I was more excited about and that was stacked with so many Fight of the Night candidates. It's also a great card from a gambling standpoint as there is only one fight out of 13 where a fighter is more than a 3-1 favorite. Here is my breakdown:
Nijem(-175) vs Vick
This is literally the only fight on the card that I am not looking forward to seeing, but it also offers one of the best values on the card in my eyes. We haven't seen anything from Vick since his TUF season and that's because he literally hasn't fought since. Vick if you don't remember was the incredibly lanky lightweight that was part of a few shocking upsets on his season, taking out Daron Cruickshank and Joe Proctor before losing to eventual winner Chiesa in the semi's. The win over Cruickshank who has been somewhat impressive in the UFC since, was more of a fluke knockout, but he dominated Proctor on the feet en route to the huge upset. If this fight stays standing, Vick should dominate the fight with his jab and ridiculous reach advantage that he'll have over Nijem. The last time we saw Nijem, his eyes were rolling into the back of his head after the flash knockout by Myles Jury. Nijem is an average striker at best but he holds a huge advantage in the wrestling department against Vick here and outside of getting caught going for a takedown, I see him dominating Vick from start to finish. Nijem has great cardio and couple that with the fact that Vick hasn't fought in over 15 months and this has 30-27 Nijem written all over it. Now Nijem doesn't have the greatest chin, but Vick doesn't exactly throw with bad intentions and outside of getting caught with a knee while shooting just like Cruickshank did, I look for Nijem to take advantage of Vick's weak takedown defense and for Vick to be fighting from his back for a majority of this fight. Will definitely be making a play on Nijem here.
OSP(-300) vs Cody Donovan
Donovan had an impressive UFC debut, knocking out Nick Penner at the end of the first round. He unfortunately has drawn a much tougher assignment here in Ovince St. Preux. OSP is one of the more exciting fighters to come over from Strikeforce and is an elite fighter for the first five minutes of any fight. Unfortunately his cardio rivals that of Butterbeans and he's been known to fade late in fights. That being said, I think he should be able to finish Donovan before cardio becomes an issue. OSP has won 10 of 11 with his lone loss coming to Gegard Mousasi in that time and in my eyes is a bit too much for Donovan to handle here. While I like OSP here, I do not however feel comfortable laying 3-1 on a fighter who has shown a propensity to gas in fights after the first round. OSP to win inside the distance is a decent price at -120 and I may put in a small play at that price. However, I will wait until after I see him at the weigh ins before doing so. If he misses weight or doesn't look to be in great shape, it will be an automatic no play.
Manny Gamburyan(-120) vs Cole Miller
Tough fight to call. Both guys are coming in on off of W's and in Millers case it probably saved his job. Both guys also have impressive wins on their resume as well as puzzling losses. Miller has a ton of potential but his fight IQ leaves much to be desired. With Manny you will surely get 100% but his talent has a ceiling, so its up to you to decide where Miller fits into that equation. Manny has battled with a who's who at featherweight in Aldo, Sherk, Nate Diaz and Tyson Griffin and come up short but also has a nice in over Mike Brown who is also fighting on the card. This fight is a definite no play for me, as I see no value in taking either fighter, but gun to my head I probably take the Manvil.
This is literally the only fight on the card that I am not looking forward to seeing, but it also offers one of the best values on the card in my eyes. We haven't seen anything from Vick since his TUF season and that's because he literally hasn't fought since. Vick if you don't remember was the incredibly lanky lightweight that was part of a few shocking upsets on his season, taking out Daron Cruickshank and Joe Proctor before losing to eventual winner Chiesa in the semi's. The win over Cruickshank who has been somewhat impressive in the UFC since, was more of a fluke knockout, but he dominated Proctor on the feet en route to the huge upset. If this fight stays standing, Vick should dominate the fight with his jab and ridiculous reach advantage that he'll have over Nijem. The last time we saw Nijem, his eyes were rolling into the back of his head after the flash knockout by Myles Jury. Nijem is an average striker at best but he holds a huge advantage in the wrestling department against Vick here and outside of getting caught going for a takedown, I see him dominating Vick from start to finish. Nijem has great cardio and couple that with the fact that Vick hasn't fought in over 15 months and this has 30-27 Nijem written all over it. Now Nijem doesn't have the greatest chin, but Vick doesn't exactly throw with bad intentions and outside of getting caught with a knee while shooting just like Cruickshank did, I look for Nijem to take advantage of Vick's weak takedown defense and for Vick to be fighting from his back for a majority of this fight. Will definitely be making a play on Nijem here.
OSP(-300) vs Cody Donovan
Donovan had an impressive UFC debut, knocking out Nick Penner at the end of the first round. He unfortunately has drawn a much tougher assignment here in Ovince St. Preux. OSP is one of the more exciting fighters to come over from Strikeforce and is an elite fighter for the first five minutes of any fight. Unfortunately his cardio rivals that of Butterbeans and he's been known to fade late in fights. That being said, I think he should be able to finish Donovan before cardio becomes an issue. OSP has won 10 of 11 with his lone loss coming to Gegard Mousasi in that time and in my eyes is a bit too much for Donovan to handle here. While I like OSP here, I do not however feel comfortable laying 3-1 on a fighter who has shown a propensity to gas in fights after the first round. OSP to win inside the distance is a decent price at -120 and I may put in a small play at that price. However, I will wait until after I see him at the weigh ins before doing so. If he misses weight or doesn't look to be in great shape, it will be an automatic no play.
Manny Gamburyan(-120) vs Cole Miller
Tough fight to call. Both guys are coming in on off of W's and in Millers case it probably saved his job. Both guys also have impressive wins on their resume as well as puzzling losses. Miller has a ton of potential but his fight IQ leaves much to be desired. With Manny you will surely get 100% but his talent has a ceiling, so its up to you to decide where Miller fits into that equation. Manny has battled with a who's who at featherweight in Aldo, Sherk, Nate Diaz and Tyson Griffin and come up short but also has a nice in over Mike Brown who is also fighting on the card. This fight is a definite no play for me, as I see no value in taking either fighter, but gun to my head I probably take the Manvil.
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