FN 78 *HUGE PLAY*

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Welcome you savages! UFC Fight Night 78 is right around the corner this Saturday live from Monterrey, Mexico! On behalf of Bruce Buffer, I would just like to say... IT'S TIME! I've got a 5 star play for you!

YTD (0-0-0) first post

Neil Magny (+230 ) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-270) @5dimes.eu

Neil Magny to win: risking 2 units to win 4.6 units

small leans also include

Magny by decision (+495)

Magny inside the distance: submission or tko/ko (+375): explained below why I have 2 prop bets conflicting each other... both show value.

With Magny filling in late for an injured Matt Brown, this is a really bad matchup for Gastelum in my opinion. The fight is Mexico at high elevation and it's a 5 round fight. What we know from the past is Kelvin has had trouble making weight and although this fight is at 185lbs the elevation is going to become a problem for Kelvin. Guess who trains year round in high elevations? That's right, Magny does. He's also been the more active fighter having although getting rag dolled and submitted by Maia fighting 3 weeks later against a very game Erik SIlva who he beat by 3 round decision. Magny isn't great anywhere, but he is good every where. Hes probably the longest guy Kelvin has fought as well. I think this fight goes to a decision, but I also see a potential late submission victory for Magny. As the fight goes on, Kelvin will begin to gas and wing his punches as he normally does and will make desperate attempts to take Magny to the ground which isn't that great of an idea itself. He's got good takedown defense and submissions. If he can use his reach to keep kelvin on the outside, avoid having his back against the cage and mix up his takedowns with his long striking, I think he wins a pretty swift decision over Kelvin or once again a 4th or 5th round submission victory.

BMWUFC · Answer

Welcome you savages! UFC Fight Night 78 is right around the corner this Saturday live from Monterrey, Mexico! On behalf of Bruce Buffer, I would just like to say... IT'S TIME! I've got a 5 star play for you!

YTD (0-0-0) first post

Neil Magny (+230 ) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-270) @5dimes.eu

Neil Magny to win: risking 2 units to win 4.6 units

small leans also include

Magny by decision (+495)

Magny inside the distance: submission or tko/ko (+375): explained below why I have 2 prop bets conflicting each other... both show value.

With Magny filling in late for an injured Matt Brown, this is a really bad matchup for Gastelum in my opinion. The fight is Mexico at high elevation and it's a 5 round fight. What we know from the past is Kelvin has had trouble making weight and although this fight is at 185lbs the elevation is going to become a problem for Kelvin. Guess who trains year round in high elevations? That's right, Magny does. He's also been the more active fighter having although getting rag dolled and submitted by Maia fighting 3 weeks later against a very game Erik SIlva who he beat by 3 round decision. Magny isn't great anywhere, but he is good every where. Hes probably the longest guy Kelvin has fought as well. I think this fight goes to a decision, but I also see a potential late submission victory for Magny. As the fight goes on, Kelvin will begin to gas and wing his punches as he normally does and will make desperate attempts to take Magny to the ground which isn't that great of an idea itself. He's got good takedown defense and submissions. If he can use his reach to keep kelvin on the outside, avoid having his back against the cage and mix up his takedowns with his long striking, I think he wins a pretty swift decision over Kelvin or once again a 4th or 5th round submission victory.

BMWUFC · Answer

Whoops, correction, it&#x27;s welter weight not sure why I said 185 lol

blv · Answer

Monterrey, Mexico is actually not that high of an elevation. Vegas is slightly higher than it. Not anywhere near what Mexico City is

But I will wait and see what Kelvin is like at the weigh ins before I make a bet

I can definitely see Magny taking this if Kelvin comes in looking shitty

BMWUFC · Answer

Hey BLV! Thanks for the insight and yes I agree, weigh ins show so much and if I even think kelvin looks bad or misses weight I will absolutely be hammering the line on Magny!

J-MoneyMaker · Answer

as I read this initial post, I was going to respond a certain way but someone else already beat me to it. blv is right, this fight location has a LOWER elevation than Las Vegas does. I'm sure you must have just been assuming it was high elevation because Mexico City is. But that's not where the fight is taking place. That seems to be one of the key components to your argument on why placing a bet on Magny is a good idea. I think it all comes down to how Gastelum looks at the weigh-ins. Magny is always a game fighter and is active, sure, but I also think he is overrated. His winning streak was comprised of a ton of mediocre to below-average fighters. If this fight was in Denver or Mexico City, then sure, elevation would be a huge factor.

The fact that you weren't anywhere close to being accurate on the elevation argument and you weren't even sure what weight they were fighting at, makes it a little difficult to take your opinion too seriously. I think the main thing everyone has to focus on is how Gastelum looks at the weigh-ins and go from there. You'll be able to learn a lot about how the weight cut went by those results and can plan your bet accordingly at that point. I'm not saying that Gastelum still won't be a candidate to gas if the fight goes over 2 rounds, but it certainly won't be because of high elevation. I'm still on the fence, but if Gastelum looks decent on the scale, I'll likely be on him. Good luck with your Magny plays.

FN 78 HUGE PLAY

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