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Interesting variance in main fights at UFC 184

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Posted: #1
I find it pretty interesting when looking at the round and ITD props for the Rousey/Zingano and Holm/Pennington fights.

Rousey and Holm are both in the -900 area.  However, the props for such large favorites are totally different.  Rousey/Zingano is 1.5 with the UNDER -165, while Holm/Pennington is 2.5 with the OVER -165.  That is quite the variance, with an overwhelming favorite in each fight.  

It is the same thing with the ITD props.  Rousey is -520 to win ITD while Holm is +150.

I am certainly not comparing the two, as Rousey is the best women's fighter, and hasn't been finishing bums like Holm.  But this is quite the anomaly with such large favorites, to have the props so different.

I am supposed to believe that Holm is -900, and I have to lay -165 and hope Pennington survives 2.5 rounds?  



 
 
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Posted: #2
i like Rocky in this fight Sharp!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:

i like Rocky in this fight Sharp!!!!!!!!!!



I obviously expect both -900 favorites to win, but I don't necessarily like Holm in this fight.  Just thought this wide variance was quite interesting.

It'll be interesting to see how Holm handles a gritty UFC caliber fighter, that is for sure.  

 
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Posted: #4
Two fighters having a wide gap in terms of skill doesn't necessarily indicate the ability to finish. GSP and Anderson were the two most dominant fighters in a generation - GSP rarely finished and Anderson rarely went to decision.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

Two fighters having a wide gap in terms of skill doesn't necessarily indicate the ability to finish. GSP and Anderson were the two most dominant fighters in a generation - GSP rarely finished and Anderson rarely went to decision.


That is quite obvious, but also a terrible example.

Since  2007, Anderson Silva went off above -600 against Maia, Cote, Okami, Bonnar, and Diaz.  In that same time frame GSP went off -600 or above 0 times.

With Holm and Rousey, we are talking about two fighters with the exact same line of -900 on 5dimes, with ridiculously different round and ITD props.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

Two fighters having a wide gap in terms of skill doesn't necessarily indicate the ability to finish. GSP and Anderson were the two most dominant fighters in a generation - GSP rarely finished and Anderson rarely went to decision.
That is quite obvious, but also a terrible example.Since  2007, Anderson Silva went off above -600 against Maia, Cote, Okami, Bonnar, and Diaz.  In that same time frame GSP went off -600 or above 0 times.With Holm and Rousey, we are talking about two fighters with the exact same line of -900 on 5dimes, with ridiculously different round and ITD props.


That's the entire point. The line doesn't dictate or reflect the finishing ability.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO:

That is quite obvious, but also a terrible example.Since  2007, Anderson Silva went off above -600 against Maia, Cote, Okami, Bonnar, and Diaz.  In that same time frame GSP went off -600 or above 0 times.With Holm and Rousey, we are talking about two fighters with the exact same line of -900 on 5dimes, with ridiculously different round and ITD props.

That's the entire point. The line doesn't dictate or reflect the finishing ability.

I think you missed basically the entire point.  

I'm comparing two fighters, with identical lines, on the same card.  Not two top level fighters, with odds nowhere near each other.  I don't expect them to be the exact same, considering Rousey is an absolute terror and finishing people in the UFC, compared to Holm who isn't.  But a variation this large is very odd.

In my experience making MMA odds and props, there has never been a variation quite this large.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:


I think you missed basically the entire point.  

I'm comparing two fighters, with identical lines, on the same card.  Not two top level fighters, with odds nowhere near each other.  I don't expect them to be the exact same, considering Rousey is an absolute terror and finishing people in the UFC, compared to Holm who isn't.  But a variation this large is very odd.

In my experience making MMA odds and props, there has never been a variation quite this large.

I'm not even factoring in that Zingano would be a substantial favorite over Pennington.
 
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Posted: #9

I see your point but Ronda has finished every fight while Holm has been to decision several times and is fighting Pennington who might be her best caliber opponent in MMA to date and has only been finished once by submission which Holm likely won't do.  It is noteworthy but the odds are generally reflective of what is likely to happen.

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayJoe17:

I see your point but Ronda has finished every fight while Holm has been to decision several times and is fighting Pennington who might be her best caliber opponent in MMA to date and has only been finished once by submission which Holm likely won't do.  It is noteworthy but the odds are generally reflective of what is likely to happen.



When you say that Holm has been to a decision several times, you actually mean that 1 of her 7 fights has been a decision, right?  


It is without a doubt her toughest opponent.  She's been finishing bums.  But this is a variance never seen before.  
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



That is quite obvious, but also a terrible example.

Since  2007, Anderson Silva went off above -600 against Maia, Cote, Okami, Bonnar, and Diaz.  In that same time frame GSP went off -600 or above 0 times.

With Holm and Rousey, we are talking about two fighters with the exact same line of -900 on 5dimes, with ridiculously different round and ITD props.


Nope. Dan Hardy
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:



Nope. Dan Hardy


matt serra
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:



matt serra


He said since 2007. GSP was -430ish in the rematch
 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:



He said since 2007. GSP was -430ish in the rematch

first fight was 2007 

second fight was delayed for a year  because of serras back injury
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